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Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

economist.com

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Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#521

Post by QAPereo »

TheAdamAndChe wrote: post #75
QAPereo wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s a factor, but the collective dumbing down is as well. We now have a nearly feral workforce and body politic, because contrary to expectations, they’re unpredictable and hard to control.

> the collective dumbing down is as well Graduation rates are are higher than ever. Over 30% of people have Bachelors degrees or higher. Literacy rates are higher than they ever have been. Our people aren't dumber, they just realize that when the business managers and owners are making millions while they don't get wage increases above inflation, they have no incentive to care.

Graduation rates are are higher than ever.

Producing it seems, graduates unfit for basic employment according to previous posters. Quantity is clearly not quality.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#522

Post by ajross »

zippergz wrote: post #332
gjem97 wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I always find it a bit strange when people talk about shortages of non-price-controlled goods and services. When you say that the industry is "short on construction workers", there's an implicit "who will work for what we used to pay them." It seems to me like it's someone who hires in that industry trying to entice more talent to come help lower the price again, rather than an accurate description of the state of th…

In my very limited personal experience, it's not that hard to get a worker to come do a job on my house. It is EXTREMELY hard to get someone who actually does quality work and is reliable. You could argue that I'd get better and more reliable people if I paid them more, but the fact is, I pay them what they ask for. I have very low confidence that just offering to pay double would make a bad worker into a good one.

Consumer services aren't really the point being made upthread, it's employers looking for supervised labor who can tolerate some spread in skills.

But you can do this too: call up the elite contractors who you can't schedule because they're "too busy" and give them a big number upfront. "I need my carpets replaced, I figure this will be $30k, does that sound right?". They'll be there.

But you have to do the work to know what the right wages are. Employers already know this stuff, obviously.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#523

Post by quickthrower2 »

andrewjl wrote: post #498
runeks wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. No person owns an infinite number of dollars. But I will happily bake you a loaf of bread for $10,000 each. In fact, I’d quit my day job to do that. That shortage wouldn’t last long.

Bread is fungible, construction workers (or any kind of employee or contractor) much less so.

Pun intended?

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#524

Post by curun1r »

avasylev wrote: post #515
curun1r wrote: post #496

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My step dad was a roofer when I was growing up. He was the one that did the estimates and found the business and he had a crew of immigrants that did most of the work for him. They earned far above minimum wage. They made $15/hr, under the table, in the early 90s when minimum wage was under $5/hr. Even the grunt roofing work is semi-skilled and paying more allowed him to keep the same crew together over multiple year…

From my anecdotal experience, a lot of recent immigrants (legal or illegal doesn't matter) don't know English and it takes them time (some times many years) before the can work in English speaking environment. Naturally such groups of same ethnicity are formed, and typically are the only work option for new immigrants (who don't speak English). This also means they are paid less, as have limited job options. I'm not…

He probably could have found Americans to do the work, but I think he preferred immigrants because they were more willing to get paid under the table. He wasn't trying to dodge taxes, he just hated complexity and filling out forms. He was an artist who learned to see roofs as art and fixed them as a concession to needing money that he never could earn from his painting and photography. I think he was paying enough to find Americans, but not enough to find Americans who would stay with him for years, especially since it was seasonal work and they'd need other work during the rest of the year. Continuity and quality were also really important to him and he wanted people he could trust.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#525

Post by toomanybeersies »

jondubois wrote: post #269
opportune wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I always read these ridiculously high salaries and laugh. Your average HVAC worker is not making $400k. I do know people in construction/HVAC/plumbers/electricians and it's the bosses making that money, not the grunt workers. The people on the front lines still make good money, for some easily approaching $100k/year, so there's not really a need for embellishment. That isn't to say that it's unattainable, but it's ak…

$400k is what senior executives of major multinational companies get paid. It's also what top surgeons get paid. I highly doubt that blue collar workers get anywhere near that much. If they did, everyone would try to work in that industry because the barrier to entry is comparatively very low.

Tower crane operators in NYC can apparently make up to $500k including benefits.

The barrier to entry is not low though, it's incredibly hard to become a crane operator due to the unions.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#526

Post by forapurpose »

avasylev wrote: post #517
forapurpose wrote: post #477

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the actual work was done by Brazilian crew, which I'm guessing was mostly illegal immigrants likely paid less than minimum wage There are millions of immigrants in the U.S. who are legal; why would you think these people are not? I guess my point is, it's not a good assumption and has bad consequences: People having their legality questioned based on no evidence.

legality questioned? come on, of course it's not good to assume anything about people, lots of things happen in life. That doesn't mean I had to go ask each of them to show me their documents, so I can make a guess on internet forum.

> I can make a guess on internet forum

On one hand, I understand that people don't want to be challenged or to write dissertations for casual conversation. On the other, we know that misinformation spreading through 'internet forums' in the form of 'guesses' is a problem, that HN isn't a typical internet forum, and that 'guesses' are often challenged here.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#527

Post by RhodesianHunter »

megaman22 wrote: post #298
mikeokner wrote: post #141

Another key factor is that a lot of baby boomers are reaching retirement age. With every kid being told college is the only path to become "successful," there's going to be a lack of talent in the trades at least in the near term that's going to continue driving wages higher.

And the all-too-common problem is that firms haven't prepared for the necessary knowledge transfer when those boomer workers do retire. If you've got a millwright who's been working in the same plant for forty years since it opened, he'll know every detail of how things work, where things don't match the schematics, what's been tried and how well that worked out. You can't just start that process when they turn in th…

They'll pay for it all right, just down the road when it's some other executive's problem.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#528

Post by Trav5 »

bdamm wrote: post #14
onion2k wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I imagine there's an opportunity for a startup that let's someone who wants to do a simple job themselves Facetime with a plumber to talk them through the work. No idea if there's any profit in it though.

"Now grab a 3ft section of copper tubing, cut it to length with your pipe cutter, bend it with your copper bending tool, and flare it with your flare clamp... what, you don't have any of those? Wellll.."

Sounds like harbor freight tools and YouTube, possibly followed by a call to a real plumber to fix the damage...

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#529

Post by jerkstate »

djrogers wrote: post #150
alextheparrot wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great! There’s an opportunity for same day rental delivery here too

Based on a fair bit of experience in these types of things (unskilled individual doing skilled trade work around various homes/rentals etc), anyone who's capable of doing these types of things while supervised via facetime is probably just as capable of and willing to do them with a youtube or web tutorial.

Sometimes you have to sink a lot of time into finding the youtube videos that have useful information in them. I am always annoyed at the extremely high volume of low quality self help content on youtube. I think some kind of guarantee that you were going to get useful advice or it's free would go a long way.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#530

Post by dcherman »

matt_wulfeck wrote: post #71
onion2k wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I imagine there's an opportunity for a startup that let's someone who wants to do a simple job themselves Facetime with a plumber to talk them through the work. No idea if there's any profit in it though.

DIY always breaks down when you need to purchase an expensive tool that you only use once.

Define expensive. 200$? That's the cost of the plumber's time, and now I've got that tool forever. That and I've gained knowledge and know how to fix or build something that I didn't before which is something I take pride in.

In my experience, there's been very few things where it makes more sense long term to just pay someone else to do it so long as you're willing to do a little bit of learning.

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