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2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

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Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inefficient per watt, yes, but local inference capacity is greatly underutilized in aggregate. If a model can run on a machine that already exists, that's a bunch of additional chips that don't need to be built.

You picked up on what I didn't write existing machines don't have to be built, you just use them. It occurred to me much later that local machines could become a shared resource of a small co-op. Or it only runs off solar or energy harvested at times of excess generation (too much daytime solar, lots of wind, or overnight when demand naturally drops). Exploring how to partition inference across many machines and shed…

yea right now local models are like the swing producer. When claude throws 503s or 429s at me, or I run out of quota, I fire up a local model.

It's also resilience. I can still do AI stuff if the internet goes down.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#512
post #498

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is somehow inaccurate. DDR5 has significantly more challenging requirements. The inspection and quality control equipment is one of those that you can't just reuse without careful transitioning. DDR5 has much higher speeds, on-die ECC and all sorts of complications DDR4 doesn't have.

I'm not even sure inspection and quality control is done at the fab. At least with logic ICs, they either testing/QC/bining as part of packaging (before dicing), or even have factories that specialise in just testing/QC/Binning. Such fallacies need to be flexible enough to deal with thousands of different IC designs, and there is no reason to tie them to a given process node. I guess with memory, there are only three…

> packaging (before dicing)

packaging before dicing? That makes no sense.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#513

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My comment was in the context of fabrication and how that affects the price of DDR4. DDR5 fabrication requires a sub 15mm process, much more complex mounting and lots more testing equipment. It means you can't just quickly convert a DDR4 fab to DDR5. It was meant to explain that DDR4 price increase has nothing to do with supply chain lanes, and it's more of an artificial demand manipulation than anything else.

>explain that DDR4 price increase has nothing to do with supply chain lanes, and it's more of an artificial demand manipulation There's no evidence of anything artificial here, except to the extent that the data center-driven demand could be called "artificial". When prices for DDR5 go up, it's only to be expected that this induces demand for DDR4, the spillover from people who were priced out of DDR5. Much the same…

> There's no evidence of anything artificial here, except to the extent that the data center-driven demand could be called "artificial"

I'm sorry. Can you summarize that part in a more concise phrase?

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#515
post #308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reading this thread I am so frickin glad I built a monster DDR4 workstation back in 2021. It would cost me more to build out that computer today (dual 3090s, 512GB ECC, 3995wx). Ram was so cheap back then.

Very neat. What's the power draw on this machine?

From the wall: 260W idle, ~1200W load (1600W PSU)
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