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2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

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Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#191

Post by Computer0 »

hdb2 wrote: post #186
undersuit wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Grab the cheapest Intel Optane M10 drive from eBay with a 1x PCI-E adapter from them too. 16GB of Swap for less than $20. The M10 are over produced and only PCI-E 3.0 2x lane devices but 16GB of DDR5 is going to cost over $200. You can do the same with USB-C M.2 adapters but the adapters cost more and eww USB for Swap, hope the device never drops.

Hey, I apologize for using you as tech support, but I found tons of those M10 sticks you are talking about, but what should I be looking for in terms of an adapter? All I can find are adapters listed as M.2: https://www.amazon.com/GLOTRENDS-Adapter-Aluminum-Heatsink-P...

I believe the intention is for you to put it in the M.2

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#192

Post by stingraycharles »

Foobar8568 wrote: post #127
stingraycharles wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s temporary revenue, it’s not as if those businesses are suddenly fundamentally better. To me it seems like they’re just riding the AI hype out, expecting a crash after, and not willing to risk a lot of capital on someone else’s bubble.

Temporary revenues for decades to come.

That’s very much up for debate.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#193

Post by NewsaHackO »

HWR_14 wrote: post #139
inigyou wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Buying and selling at market price is rarely illegal. I think in the USSR it might be?

In the US, selling at the (new higher) market price during a declared state-of-emergency is illegal in most states and territories.

Are talking about selling marked up water during a state of emergency? Don’t think that would apply here.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#194

Post by theLiminator »

Aurornis wrote: post #178
rickydroll wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately, I can't not use AI because it provides the best speech recognition I've ever used and, going along with hand problems, it now allows me to write code after a three-year absence from that skill. I do miss it. I'd never do it again professionally in the large, but I have missed writing code a lot. My solution is to see what four or five-year-old equipment I can buy that will let me run local LLMs. I may…

> IMO, Migrating to small-scale local LLMs would be a significant improvement over using data centers. LLM serving is most efficient when you batch a lot of parallel requests together. Data center solutions also have the advantage of collecting queries from around the globe, so the hardware can be utilized around the clock. Having everyone serve their own local LLMs would produce a lot more memory demand. Not less. T…

Yeah, local LLMs are probably an order of magnitude less efficient at a fixed level of "intelligence" if not more.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#195

Post by boredatoms »

vannevar wrote: post #190
freeone3000 wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The alternative is they could charge more. They could. And people would pay it.

The problem isn't the price. No matter how much you pay, you can't take delivery of a chip that doesn't exist. Now, you could raise prices to the point where you destroy demand. But that's a tricky window to maneuver through.

For consumers they’re already destroying demand

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#196

Post by OJFord »

haroldp wrote: post #184
1970-01-01 wrote: post #158

Seems like we need a USB equivalent standard to RAM sticks. I have lots and lots of old (1-2GB), intercompatible sticks sitting. Sometimes you just need the space and not the speed.

> Sometimes you just need the space and not the speed. Your computer already supports that. It's called "swap".

Yeah but DDR3 was faster then and still is now - I can't imagine my M4 Mac having a slightly older version RAM would meaningfully affect me, but another 24GB of it (or whatever I have) would certainly be an improvement.

CPUs have L1, L2, L3+ caches too after all.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#197

Post by rapjr9 »

Aurornis wrote: post #128
pu_pe wrote: post #37

This will have general inflationary consequences for consumer products (phones, consoles, laptops, etc.). On top of current uncertainties regarding oil and fertilizers, I think 2% inflation in the US and Europe would be a very optimistic target.

Yes, but the impact will be small. The average consumer isn't purchasing a lot of products with a lot of RAM every year. Their 8GB of RAM phones will go up in price a little bit, but people aren't buying phones every year or even every other year. So if the price of the 8GB of LPDDR went from $40 to $160 and it's all passed on to the consumer buying a new phone every 4 years, that's an extra $30/year in spending. Mos…

The headline says "sold out". That doesn't mean prices will go up, that means the memory will not be available at all for many companies and the products they make will not be available to consumers.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#199

Post by tjwebbnorfolk »

theLiminator wrote: post #194
Aurornis wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> IMO, Migrating to small-scale local LLMs would be a significant improvement over using data centers. LLM serving is most efficient when you batch a lot of parallel requests together. Data center solutions also have the advantage of collecting queries from around the globe, so the hardware can be utilized around the clock. Having everyone serve their own local LLMs would produce a lot more memory demand. Not less. T…

Yeah, local LLMs are probably an order of magnitude less efficient at a fixed level of "intelligence" if not more.

Inefficient per watt, yes, but local inference capacity is greatly underutilized in aggregate. If a model can run on a machine that already exists, that's a bunch of additional chips that don't need to be built.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#200

Post by undersuit »

hdb2 wrote: post #186
undersuit wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Grab the cheapest Intel Optane M10 drive from eBay with a 1x PCI-E adapter from them too. 16GB of Swap for less than $20. The M10 are over produced and only PCI-E 3.0 2x lane devices but 16GB of DDR5 is going to cost over $200. You can do the same with USB-C M.2 adapters but the adapters cost more and eww USB for Swap, hope the device never drops.

Hey, I apologize for using you as tech support, but I found tons of those M10 sticks you are talking about, but what should I be looking for in terms of an adapter? All I can find are adapters listed as M.2: https://www.amazon.com/GLOTRENDS-Adapter-Aluminum-Heatsink-P...

That's a 4 lane adapter, it'll work if you have a 4x, 8x, or 16x PCI-E slot open. This is a 1 lane adapter: https://www.ebay.com/itm/128010189845?var=429206655218
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