I hear from my OpenAI contacts that the next wave of thinking models are going to blow the socks off Google. In some ways they already do (speech, images). So this lead will likely be short lived. That said, in the meantime I did get paid API access. The friction for the scenarios I need LLM for is effectively zero, and I'll use whichever sucks the least at the moment for any given task.
Google is winning on every AI front
511–520 of 851 posts
Re: Google is winning on every AI front
#512As an Ex-OpenAI employee I agree with this. Most of the top ML talent at OpenAI already have left to either do their own thing or join other startups. A few are still there but I doubt if they'll be around in a year. The main successful product from OpenAI is the ChatGPT app, but there's a limit on how much you can charge people for subscription fees. I think soon people expect this service to be provided for free an…
> there's a limit on how much you can charge people for subscription fees. I think soon people expect this service to be provided for free and ads would become the main option to make money out of chatbots. So... I don't think this is certain. A surprising number of people pay for the ChatGPT app and/or competitors. It's be a >$10bn business already. Could maybe be a >$100bn business long term. Meanwhile... making mo…
"The actual business models, at this point, aren't even known."
"AI" sounds like a great investment. Why waste time investing in businesses when one can invest in something that might become a business. CEOs and employees can accumulate personal weath without any need for the company to be become profitable and succeed.
Re: Google is winning on every AI front
#513Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I think soon people expect this service to be provided for free and ads would become the main option to make money out of chatbots. I also think adtech corrupting AI as well is inevitable, but I dread for that future. Chatbots are much more personal than websites, and users are expected to give them deeply personal data. Their output containing ads would be far more effective at psychological manipulation than trad…
Do they want a Butlerian Jihad? Because that's how you get a Butlerian Jihad.
Just call it Skynet. Then at least we can think about pithy Arnold one-liners.
Re: Google is winning on every AI front
#514Earlier quoted context omitted.
Kodak was well placed to profit from the rise of digital imaging - in the late 1970s and early 1980s Kodak labs pioneered colour image sensors, and was producing some of the highest resolution CCDs out there. Bryce Bayer worked for Kodak when he invented and patented the Bayer pattern filter used in essentially every colour image sensor to this day. But the problem was: Kodak had a big film business - with a lot of f…
1/2 kW/minute costs about $0.001 so you technically could make a profit at that rate. The real problem is the GPU cost - a $20k GPU amortized over five years costs $0.046 per second. :)
How do you get that? I get $0.0001 per second over 5 years to reach 20k.
Re: Google is winning on every AI front
#515This article doesn't mention TPUs anywhere. I don't think it's obvious for people outside of google's ecosystem just how extraordinarily good the JAX + TPU ecosystem is. Google several structural advantages over other major players, but the largest one is that they roll their own compute solution which is actually very mature and competitive. TPUs are extremely good at both training and inference[1] especially at sca…
I've used Jax quite a bit and it's so much better than tf/pytorch. Now for the life of me, I still haven't been able to understan what a TPU is. Is it Google's marketing term for a GPU? Or is it something different entirely?
Way back when, most of a GPU was for graphics. Google decided to design a completely new chip, which focused on the operations for neural networks (mainly vectorized matmul). This is the TPU.
It's not a GPU, as there is no graphics hardware there anymore. Just memory and very efficient cores, capable of doing massively parallel matmuls on the memory. The instruction set is tiny, basically only capable of doing transformer operations fast.
Today, I'm not sure how much graphics an A100 GPU still can do. But I guess the answer is "too much"?
Re: Google is winning on every AI front
#516Earlier quoted context omitted.
I noticed the same in Gemini. It would refuse to answer mundane questions that none but the most 'enlightened' could find an offensive twist to. This makes it rather unusable as a catch all goto resource, sadly. People are curious by nature. Refusing to answer their questions doesn't squash that, it leads them to potentially less trustworthy sources.
> Refusing to answer their questions doesn't squash that, it leads them to potentially less trustworthy sources. But that's good
For who?
Re: Google is winning on every AI front
#517Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think the HN crowd widely overestimates how many people are even passingly familiar with the LLM landscape much less use any of the tools regularly.
Last Month, Google, Youtube, Facebook, Instagram and Twitter (very close to this one, likely passes it this month) were the only sites with more visits than chatgpt. Couple that with the 400M+ weekly active users (according to open ai in February) and i seriously doubt that. https://x.com/Similarweb/status/1909544985629721070 https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/o...
Weekly active users is a pretty strange metric. Essential tools and even social networking apps report DAUs, and they do that because essential things get used daily. How many times did you use Google in the past day? How many times did you visit (insert some social media site you prefer) in the last day? If you’re only using something once per week, it probably isn’t that important to you.
Re: Google is winning on every AI front
#518Several people have suggested that LLMs might end up ad-supported. I'll point out that "ad supported" might be incredibly subtle/insidious when applied to LLMs: An LLM-based "adsense" could: 1. Maintain a list of sponsors looking to buy ads 2. Maintain a profile of users/ad targets 3. Monitor all inputs/outputs 4. Insert "recommendations" (ads) smoothly/imperceptibly in the course of normal conversation No one would…
To put on my techno-optimist hat, some specific searches I make already thinking please, please sell me something and google's results are horribly corrupted by SEO.
If an LLM could help solve this problem it would be great.
I think you could make a reasonable technical argument for this- an LLM has more contextual understanding of your high-intent question. Serve me some ads that are more relevant than the current ads based on this deeper understanding.
Re: Google is winning on every AI front
#519Earlier quoted context omitted.
> No guarantees that Google discover a meaningful business model here... I don't understand this sentiment at all. The business model writes itself (so to speak). This is the company that perfected the art of serving up micro-targeted ads to people at the moment they are seeking a solution to a problem. Just swap the search box for a chat bot. For a while they'll keep the ads off to the side, but over time the ads wi…
I don’t think it works. Search is the perfect place for ads for exactly the reasons you state: people have high intent. But a majority of chatbot usage is not searching for the solution to a problem. And if he Chatbot is serving the ads when I’m using it for creative writing, reformatting text, having a python function, written, etc, I’m going to be annoyed and switch to a different product. Search is all about infor…
> And if he Chatbot is serving the ads when I’m using it for creative writing, reformatting text, having a python function, written, etc, I’m going to be annoyed and switch to a different product.
You may not even notice it when AI does a product placement when it's done opportunistically in creative writing (see Hollywood). There also are plenty of high-intent assistant-type AI tasks.
Re: Google is winning on every AI front
#520Earlier quoted context omitted.
1/2 kW/minute costs about $0.001 so you technically could make a profit at that rate. The real problem is the GPU cost - a $20k GPU amortized over five years costs $0.046 per second. :)
How do you get that? I get $0.0001 per second over 5 years to reach 20k.
Because I'm an idiot and left off a factor of 365. Thank you! A 20k GPU for 30 seconds is 1/3 of a cent. Still more than the power but also potentially profitable under this scenario informing all the other overhead and utilization.