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Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

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Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#511

Post by ecf »

jayd16 wrote: post #194
InTheArena wrote: post #57

I live in a state where we are suddenly inundated with California’s refugees, fleeing the state now that they don’t have to physically live there. Reasonable taxes, a much less stressful work-life balance, bigger homes all make it very appealing to ditch the once0golden state. Our company has decided not to reopen a majority of it’s office space. Ironically, the Bay Area office is remaining open while other offices a…

I can't help but think this take is projecting a bit too much. Inundated? How so? What are you seeing? Tax benefits, work-life balance and bigger homes? Really, you can see these changes in the last 6 months of a pandemic? I could be wrong but I don't think the majority of employers are letting employees change states (and state taxes). WFH does not mean work from anywhere, especially tax-wise. This all sounds plausi…

You can blame the media for this.

Stories about problems in California get a lot of clicks, so people see a couple week’s worth of bad news and think the state is on fire is ways that aren’t due to actual flames.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#512

Post by justnotworthit »

rsync wrote: post #365
dannyw wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think everyone who lives in San Fran wants do life in San Fran. They’re here because that’s where the jobs are.

"I don’t think everyone who lives in San Fran wants do life in San Fran. They’re here because that’s where the jobs are." I live in San Francisco and I want to do life here. I moved here very specifically to set down roots and raise my family in the SFBA. I have the option to live anywhere in the world and I believe that the confluence of the west marin national seashore and the city center of San Francisco is unique…

> I moved here very specifically to set down roots and raise my family in the SFBA.

To a raise a family, you moved to a city with more dogs than children[1] and more drug addicts than high school students? [2] Or are you planning on moving to Marin County (close, very expensive, very nice), one of the southern suburbs (close, expensive, not nice), or Dublin/Pleasanton (far, less expensive, nice) once the kids are born?

Seriously asking. (About me: I prefer dogs; If I have a kid I prefer my kid hang out with dogs; my extended family is spread out in the SFBA from Daly City to Dublin; I grew up there; I left; I miss the weather).

[1] https://www.kqed.org/news/11669269/are-there-really-more-dog... [2] https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/philmatier/article/San-F...

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#513

Post by digitaltrees »

brian_cunnie wrote: post #144
flurben wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, linguistically that comment borders on gibberish.

The empty Walgreen's shelves can be seen at the Walgreen's on the corner of Eddy and Van Ness Streets. People come in & take whatever they want because they know Walgreen's has a "no contact" policy (they won't stop you). They shoplift everything. And Walgreen's doesn't rush to re-stock. There are a lot of homeless and drug addicts in that area, but I don't know firsthand if they're the shoplifters. I spoke to a poli…

Seems like a really simple solution, revert drug stores and retail to the old behind the counter model that dominated in the 1800-1900s. You walk in, go to the counter and ask for for specific products rather than being self serve. As a few kiosks to order and a few pick up windows; that would be significantly cheaper than losing this much product from shop lifting or closing stores.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#514

Post by mattparcens »

sebmellen wrote: post #2

A close relative of mine is a top real estate appraiser based in San Francisco, and she's terrified about what happens in Q2 2021, when leases will start terminating en masse. She's had a call with the St. Louis Fed, as they're trying to get an idea of what this will look like. She thinks it will be a bloodbath, and deal a death blow to corporate real estate (and other capital markets by extension).

Don't know squat about corporate real estate, but why would lease terminations occur en masse in Q2 2021?

I would expect that a sliding window of leases would be expiring all the time, and that the bloodbath would be slightly more gradually occurring right now.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#515

Post by underwater »

bergstromm466 wrote: post #496
meerita wrote: post #462

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I want a free house too.

> I want a free house too. Well yes, for many of the young working class - rent is eating up over 2/3rd of their paychecks. We are being scammed by the Bourgeoisie with inherited wealth. This explains our situation well imo: - "So where did our land system come from? Weirdly enough, the land system that we have today has its origins in a problem specific to medieval kings, which is ‘how do I fund military campaigns a…

Buying property to rent doesn't seem like a good way to make money every time I've run the numbers. The only way it makes sense is if capital gains ratchets up the property prices significantly.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#516

Post by wheelerwj »

brodie wrote: post #424
FreakyT wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That actually seems like a really good idea — I’d love to see more housing in the “downtown core” areas of SF, which are like 95% office space.

I wouldn’t mind living in FiDi if it were in a brand new loft/studio apartment at an affordable price. All my SF life I’ve tried to stay in the real residential neighborhoods, the ones tourists don’t know exist. Would be nice to change it up without being rent gouged.

i lived in Fidi for about a year. Wasn't a bad experience. Lots of stuff within walking distance. Don't know that I would repeat it though.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#517

Post by AdrianB1 »

jacobolus wrote: post #112
flurben wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seriously think that everywhere in America with reasonable tax rates is just getting fiscal transfers from SF?

Personally I don’t think “low taxes” are “reasonable”. We live in a complicated society and we all benefit when we collectively pay people to do a huge variety of important jobs which are hard to fit into a pure-profit system. Cutting funding for those exposes us to a wide variety of risks and eliminates many future opportunities, in the long term harming us all. The Covid pandemic is a perfect case study in the way…

There is a single problem with this line of thought: you cannot raise taxes over 100%. Yes, more taxes gives you better services and it benefits the society more (not the tax payer), so increasing the taxes is the logical way to go... until you reach 100% and you are stuck. At that point one can still argue taxes should be increased for better services, but it will be harder to do it. Then people will start thinking about how to limit the spending and how to get the most from less money, maybe even to reduction in taxes.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#518

Post by bergstromm466 »

underwater wrote: post #515
bergstromm466 wrote: post #496

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I want a free house too. Well yes, for many of the young working class - rent is eating up over 2/3rd of their paychecks. We are being scammed by the Bourgeoisie with inherited wealth. This explains our situation well imo: - "So where did our land system come from? Weirdly enough, the land system that we have today has its origins in a problem specific to medieval kings, which is ‘how do I fund military campaigns a…

Buying property to rent doesn't seem like a good way to make money every time I've run the numbers. The only way it makes sense is if capital gains ratchets up the property prices significantly.

> Buying property to rent doesn't seem like a good way to make money

Landlordism is one of the oldest games. It is true that you do need quite a bit of capital in order to 'start'. This is the reason why many big corporations like Blackstone have gotten into the game. In the UK, landlordism is a common way to 'becoming a millionaire'.

After the '08 financial crash, the UK government even pledged to underwrite mortgages, making the game of starting a Monopoly-like property empire in the UK risk free for elites. Sheikh Khalifa is a big fan. [1]

> The only way it makes sense is if capital gains ratchets up the property prices significantly.

That's exactly what corporates do. It's the slow corporate fininancialization of the housing market [2].

"Between 2011 and 2017, some of the world’s largest private-equity groups and hedge funds, as well as other large investors, spent a combined $36 billion on more than 200,000 homes in ailing markets across the country. In one Atlanta zip code, they bought almost 90 percent of the 7,500 homes sold between January 2011 and June 2012; today, institutional investors own at least one in five single-family rentals in some parts of the metro area" [3]

+

"Scaling up portfolios consisting of thousands or tens of thousands of rental homes has made it possible for Wall Street firms to roll out financial instruments suited to “a rentership society”. Securitisation allows big investors to borrow against the value of the properties, to buy more properties and pay off old debt, and acts as a loan that tenants pay back with their rent checks.

Wall Street is no stranger to the housing business in America. But their involvement as landlords of single-family homes is new, and so are the financial instruments they have developed." [4]

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/ng-interactive/2020/oct/...

[2] https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2019/sep/10/push-fi...

[3] https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/02/singl...

[4] https://theconversation.com/wall-street-landlords-are-chasin...

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#519

Post by xtat »

rossdavidh wrote: post #138
albacur wrote: post #91

I'm excited by the idea of permanent remote work and moving somewhere more affordable. I moved to SF relatively late in my career, and only realized afterwards that I have nowhere near enough savings to own a nice home here. But most of my coworkers seem eager to return to the office. They miss the office environment, the perks and catered meals, and the socialization. And the managers, who subsist on meetings and in…

I agree, but with a caveat. The _very_ top execs of large organizations (Google, Facebook, etc.) may be anxious to get to a lower-salary environment, and remote work may be a necessary part of that. If they are determined to move to a structure where they don't have to pay SV salaries, they might overrule their middle-management and extend remote work in order to facilitate that.

Key thing here is just to not accept salary scaling- there is no reason for remote workers to subsidize SF rents by accepting lower wages.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#520

Post by ngokevin »

ps747 wrote: post #291
ngokevin wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I like SF, but symphonies, operas, ballets, and beautiful parks are like the common denominator of major US cities. But anyways I agree SF is beautiful in many areas, and no one should listen to any opinions of SF from anyone who calls it "San Fran" :)

Yes, I agree that most major cities have these things, but I truly believe the SF Symphony is special, almost as brilliant as the NY Philharmonic. They regularly host top performers from around the world -- Itzhak Perlman, Gustavo Dudamel, Yuja Wang, and so many more. And Michael Tilson Thomas is a treasure. Anyway, I can ramble about this forever and I appreciate the response :)

I wish I would've went to one, I think my wife was slated to go since her company was sponsoring the symphony. I'm a casual classical music fan. I play some violin and have played in symphony before, watch TwoSet, and watch stuff like Ray Chen and Hilary Hahn. I wanted to become part of those public drop-in symphonies too.
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