Justin Trudeau promises to resign as PM

What we've been watching for the last 18 months has been the slow collapse of the governing Liberal Party, led by Justin Trudeau (LPC) - Polling and projections have been turning heavily against the LPC since last summer (2023), and the internal party cracks started showing after a by-election (special election, to fill an empty seat) loss in Toronto this summer and then one in Montreal not long after. Both Toronto and Montreal are considered the LPC's "heartland" and losses there suggest that the polls are correct in predicting a huge defeat for the LPC in a general election. A few Members of Parliament (MPs) began pressuring Trudeau to step down as party leader (and therefore Prime Minister (PM)) and some announced that they would not run again. At time of writing, a third by-election has just been lost by the Liberals.

The next Canadian general election must be held no later than October 2025. That is because the last election was in late 2021. That 2021 election led to a "minority government" in which the Liberal Party won the most individual seats (districts, ridings, constituencies, etc.) but not more than half of them. As a Westminster Parliament with plurality voting (First Past the Post, winner-takes-all) coalitions are not common in Canada, and the minority government usually operates on a vote-by-vote basis with other parties, while allowing their party to form the government. Some votes, notably ones about the budget, are called "confidence votes" and if one fails, the government has "lost the confidence of the House of Commons" and must either call an election or allow opposition parties to try to gain the confidence of the house and form a new government.

Minority governments do not usually last the full length before another general election must be called by law. This one has lasted longer than average because the LPC signed an agreement with a smaller party called the NDP. The NDP demanded some new welfare policies such as subsidized dental care and some medications and in return would support the LPC in confidence votes. The NDP's leader, Jagmeet Singh, announced this fall that he was ending the agreement with the LPC and would only support the government on a case-by-case basis. This is likely to save some of his party's own polling numbers, as they have also faltered (the junior party in coalitions or similar situations almost always fall more than the senior party, worldwide) but do result in the NDP looking weak as they heavily criticize the LPC government yet vote to keep it governing the country. The NDP do not want an election right now for several reasons: their own polling numbers are not good, they can squeeze more out of a minority LPC than the Conservatives who are strong favourites to win the next election (we'll get to them, don't worry), the party machine is short on money (they recently spent a lot of their funds on a close provincial election in British Columbia) and possibly because Singh wants to ensure himself and a few of his MPs have been elected long enough to meet the minimum requirement for a government pension. This last point has been heavily debated and used in Conservative attack ads, so make of it what you will.

So, what are Canadians unhappy about? The biggest item is cost of living - most things boil down to how much it costs for a roof over your head and food in your fridge. Housing costs have been astronomical in Vancouver and Toronto for decades, but have been rapidly increasing across the country. Another is immigration - like many countries, Canada's population is aging and there has long been a cross-partisan consensus that immigration is a great way to counter this. But since the pandemic the LPC increased immigration levels massively, especially in 2 sectors: student visas which were being taken advantage of by "diploma mill" shoddy private colleges that promised immigrants a pathway to residence, and low-skill temporary foreign workers (TFWs) who are employed in fast food or other entry-level positions. Not only has this put much more strain on the housing supply in major urban areas like Toronto or Vancouver, but it also brings down wages and facilitates abuse of these unfortunate people who just want to build a better life for themselves and their family. The LPC has also faced a lot of scandals. Every government is corrupt and has scandals, but there have been a lot from this government: from SNC-Lavalin and WE Charity earlier, to ArriveCAN and a cabinet minster lying about indigenous heritage to win government contracts more recently. As in the US, opioids have been devastating to Canadians, with tent encampments and overdose deaths no longer limited to just Vancouver's infamous Downtown Eastside. Police departments complain that the justice system is not responding well to repeat offenders either due to bail reforms or bleeding-heart judges. Finally there's the anti-incumbent bias we've seen in elections worldwide throughout 2024 and the Canadian trend of voting out a government after around a decade in power.

So let's get into who are likely to come next - the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), led by Pierre Polievre since 2022. The CPC was last in power under Stephen Harper from 2006-2015 and has a lot of support in the western provinces of Canada, plus competes with the LPC and NDP in the suburbs of major cities. Polievre is a pugilistic career politician who has very successfully channelled the anger Canadians are feeling into a commanding polling lead. Polievre has been called a populist because he has levied much more criticism of the LPC government than policy suggestions, and for his schtick of reducing issues into "verb the noun" such as "axe the [carbon] tax", "build the homes" and "end the crime." But listening to his earlier speeches in Parliament suggest that Polievre is much more of a policy "wonk" than his current campaigning suggests.

When Parliament returns in March with a new Liberal Party leader (and Prime Minister), it is almost certain to be defeated immediately and an election will be called.