501–510 of 893 posts
The problem is that the shelter-in-place rule is already limited in effectiveness due to a very lengthy list of exceptions plus many people not observing the spirit of the rule. Compliance will only drop over time as people see that 1) Their actions are having no obvious impact and 2) There is no clear end in sight. If the primary goal of extending the order is to give local governments time to build out infrastructu…
The primary goal is to keep the rate of infection under what the health care system can handle. If the rate of infection exceeds it, the whole house of cards starts coming down. Imagine doctors, firemen and policemen starting to succumb.
I'm surprised we're not seeing plans for some businesses to reopen with restrictions. I think it will be a while before we allow haircuts and manicures again, but I see no reason why we can't increase the types of businesses allowed open. Limiting occupancy, requiring PPE, and enforcing social distancing appear to be reasonable requirements. I hope the politicians and government workers are busy trying to find a midd…
The thing I'm confused by is why a costco is open that has like 1000 people per day and a flower shop that has 20 customers per day isn't open. Is the flower shop dangerous? Is it less essential on the yearly timeframe? This lockdown isn't measured in days right now, it's measured in months. What's "essential" in days is not what's "essential" in months.
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It's a class divide, unfortunately. The people who are getting hit hardest are the people who were already getting hit hardest. Most of those don't frequent the same internet forums we do.
This is why "We're in this together" is just not true. Oprah has it better than me right now. But we both have it way better than my hairdresser (who knows if her salon will survive). And all three of us have it better than a Silicon Valley janitor. I'm filled every day with deep, deep sadness for everyone whose refrigerators are running out with their bank account at zero.
I'm lucky enough to have remote work. And I'm sure many HNers have a nice buffer of savings from their tech jobs to weather the storm or are getting paid time off. But can anyone share what it's like to not be in either of these situations? How are your rent lords handling things? I live abroad in a cheap country so I can handle zero income, but I wouldn't be able to last long if rent was $2000+/mo instead of the Yet…
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But if the rates stay the same, then all we're accomplishing is slowing the rate at which we reach herd immunity. If herd immunity is the strategy we're pursuing, then we should lift restrictions enough to meet hospital capacity, so we can get to herd immunity as quickly as possible and get the economy back to something approaching normal levels of activity. If the strategy is actually suppression and elimination, th…
There's also the goal of slowing down and stalling in hopes of getting a vaccine, better treatments, production to catch up with supply shortages for healthcare facilities, and allowing healthcare facilities to increase capacity, etc.
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But if the rates stay the same, then all we're accomplishing is slowing the rate at which we reach herd immunity. If herd immunity is the strategy we're pursuing, then we should lift restrictions enough to meet hospital capacity, so we can get to herd immunity as quickly as possible and get the economy back to something approaching normal levels of activity. If the strategy is actually suppression and elimination, th…
IIUC, it's still unknown if having COVID-19 confers either short- or long-term immunity.
Not a doctor, this is not a rhetorical question: Shouldn't we have those 2nd-time sick people by now? Shouldn't the null hypothesis be that immunity works like most other colds?
Masks weren't "proven to be effective" until well after any reasonably thoughtful person was wishing they had one.
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The problem I see with that statement is that it's difficult, if not impossible to falsify. Hospitals are nowhere near being overwhelmed, in general, which means that they have some capacity to handle an outbreak if we lift restrictions gradually. I know people who work at hospitals in places like LA, and they've reported that activity is relatively slow. (of course in part because fewer people are going to the ER fo…
>The problem I see with that statement is that it's difficult, if not impossible to falsify. All you have to do is take a look at hospitals in NYC to know how wrong you are and right the person you responded to is. >Someone in my neighborhood spent their life savings on starting a gourmet burgers and brews joint Holy shit won't someone please think of the gastropubs. This is why I'll never believe this is a good fait…
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You can start opening things up, it doesn't mean people will go out to eat, get haircuts, visit movie theaters, workout at a gym or travel. As long as the virus is out there and actively spreading, people will voluntarily shelter. Businesses will still go bankrupt as most retail stores and restaurants run at around breakeven in net income. Also there is the liability issue. If we want to get back to normal getting co…
Is community spread of zero a worthwhile goal? SF still has thousands of people (maybe tens of thousands) coming in and out of the city every day to deliver things, see family, return home, etc. As long as this is still happening (there is no way for SF to prevent this) what is the point of fixating on zero new cases. Consider two cases: - On May 15 SF has had no new cases since May 1st. It decides to reopen. - On Ma…
Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…
Funny that this is exactly the same narrative as here in the UK. Initially it was about flattening the curve for healthcare capacity, now we are in some weird holding pattern where the goal is becoming increasingly vague.