Predictions are basically hopes. When you look at them rationally, they are rarely based on facts but intuition. On this list: 1. More than $100M of venture capital will flow into Bitcoin start-ups. No it won't because if you ask VCs they will mostly tell you that the value can not be extracted easily into fiat currency and that's what they need to still work in. To that argument, some will say "BTC-only VCs" will em…
Most of your points are reasonable, but your last ruined it all for me. > I'm not sure if they give that award to ponzi scheme creators A Ponzi scheme requires new money all the time for it to continue. If new money stops going into Bitcoin, it's not doomed to collapse like an actual Ponzi scheme. Bitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme.
Bitcoin 2014 – Top predictions
51–60 of 87 posts
Re: Bitcoin 2014 – Top predictions
#52Earlier quoted context omitted.
Most of your points are reasonable, but your last ruined it all for me. > I'm not sure if they give that award to ponzi scheme creators A Ponzi scheme requires new money all the time for it to continue. If new money stops going into Bitcoin, it's not doomed to collapse like an actual Ponzi scheme. Bitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme.
Pretty sure if all the miners stopped mining, bitcoin would be dead in the water, unless there is a secondary transaction mechanism that doesn't rely on miners.
Sorry, but what you said is absurd as long as bitcoin has value.
Re: Bitcoin 2014 – Top predictions
#53Earlier quoted context omitted.
Speaking of dogecoin, I want to pick up some dogecoin without any bitcoin on hand to trade and without elevating my risk to fraud any more than necessary. I realize there are forums and presumably faqs, possibly "the same way you'd pick up bitcoin," but what is the HN prescription to go about doing this? Given that it's relatively nascent, low turnover, goofy and so forth, I'm apprehensive when hearing "very coinbase…
Even with only a Core i5 CPU, you can use cpuminer to create some yourself. For small amounts, you could go to http://www.reddit.com/r/dogemarket , the fraud risk is not very high there. In the US, there's https://www.altquick.co/ . Other than that, you need BTC/LTC first then trade on cryptsy.
>you can use cpuminer to create some yourself.
Depends on how many you want, the dogecoin difficulty has really gone through the roof lately, and you are much much better off with a GPU. The Kh/s rating on most GPUs is much better.
https://litecoin.info/Mining_hardware_comparison
www.coinwarz.com/calculators/dogecoin-mining-calculator/
The best Corei5 is going to get you about 1358 doge a day, with sounds like a lot, but it is a tiny number, 41 cents. Plus, the mining calculators are way way off. They always overestimate for me.
Re: Bitcoin 2014 – Top predictions
#54Earlier quoted context omitted.
Dogecoin's transaction volume has been higher than Bitcoin for the past few days: http://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-btc-doge.ht... . Of course, Bitcoin doesn't take into account off-chain transactions, which at this stage is probably higher than Dogecoin's. The high tx volume is most likely due to all the tipping happening with it.
I was under the impression that all bitcoin transactions were on-chain. How do off-chain transactions work?
Re: Bitcoin 2014 – Top predictions
#55Predictions are basically hopes. When you look at them rationally, they are rarely based on facts but intuition. On this list: 1. More than $100M of venture capital will flow into Bitcoin start-ups. No it won't because if you ask VCs they will mostly tell you that the value can not be extracted easily into fiat currency and that's what they need to still work in. To that argument, some will say "BTC-only VCs" will em…
>If you can't see that strength as a massive weakness, ask yourselves what value BTC intrinsically has over other alt-coins. That's an easy one: the network effect ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_effect ). Same why you cannot simply start another successful social web and eat Facebook's lunch.
Re: Bitcoin 2014 – Top predictions
#56Here's one that I'm sure I'm going to regret saying publicly later. But, here goes: Dogecoin will outperform Bitcoin in terms of percentage market cap growth in 2014. Even if both are negative.
Dogecoin's transaction volume has been higher than Bitcoin for the past few days: http://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-btc-doge.ht... . Of course, Bitcoin doesn't take into account off-chain transactions, which at this stage is probably higher than Dogecoin's. The high tx volume is most likely due to all the tipping happening with it.
Re: Bitcoin 2014 – Top predictions
#57Earlier quoted context omitted.
Historically, there was never a case when Bitcoin had a stable price and then crashed from it. It was always the other way: everyone who wanted to sell off, did so quickly. Then after 6-8 months of some stable price (in late 2011, mid 2012, late 2012 and mid 2013) new investors saw that it's not going down any time soon and started jumping in. The massive increases were also caused by the fact that most people got to…
Past has no influence on the future - each toss of a coin is independent. Jokes aside, there was never such a massive bubble and such dramatic rise in price without any economic reasons. For me it looks like nothing but speculation. If you would look at volumes in bitcoincharts.com you will notice that its dramatic rise was on relatively high volumes, while after the first drop, from $1200 to $1000 volume is rather l…
The productive discussion would be about what is the basis of that speculation, or whether it can be equally huge with any other asset like a tulip bulb or dotcom stock.
I'd argue, Bitcoin is unique in a sense that it can (already does) easily act as money itself. People were investing in tulip bulbs, ponzi and dotcom stocks in order to cash out big way. Current stock market is no different. There's a lot of "bad" money pumped by Fed and from pension programs and no theoretical sustainability while all fundamentals say it's going to crash hard.
On contrary, Bitcoin is a risky long-run bet that it will be useful as a world money, so there would not be any need to "cash out" into some single asset at the "maximum" price. If Bitcoin succeeds, then there'd be no need for dollars, euros, yen, gold and silver. You'd be calmly selling portions of your BTC to buy food, travel, shelter and invest in business.
Some portion of investors bets on that exact outcome. Those who bet on short-term price increases to "cash out" produce that pyramid-looking effect (huge bubble and then huge price drop), but every time there are more and more long-term investors. This time BTC went from $140 to $1200 and quickly crashed to $500 (then, getting back to $800-900). Clearly, everyone who wanted to cash out already did and what's left are those holder who are not selling for some time now. When BTC goes to $5-10K this year, then they might sell a portion of holdings to newcomers, but keep the rest for a really long time. If everyone continues to follow the same logic, this "pyramid" will lead to a situation when almost everyone has some BTC, everyone values BTC a lot and everyone is ready to trade this BTC between each other for whatever goods and services they desire.
Right now, most investors in Bitcoin are economically disconnected (do not trade directly with each other), so you don't see much transactions. Bitcoin is used like gold: a speculative "store of wealth". But at some point the density of investors will become so big, that more and more direct economic relations will appear between them. Tomorrow you might find that your local baker is BTC investor and you can pay him in BTC. Later he will discover that his supplier also invested in BTC and thus will be able to accept even more BTC and pay his bills directly with BTC. As this second phase (increased trade bypassing fiat currency) progresses, people will see how Bitcoin is no longer just "gold 2.0", but actual money. More and more will invest in it and thus become payers and payees in BTC. As this goes on, reservation demand for USD will start to go down quite noticeably and people will rush to BTC even faster (as prices in USD grow quicker and quicker). Ultimately, USD will hyperinflate and become worthless. All tax collectors will go looking for another job (they want to be paid in BTC, but government can't just print it or buy it). In the end, inflation and taxation will become impossible. Police will have to be sponsored voluntarily on district-by-district basis. Armies will abandon their bases and poor islamic nations being raped for decades will be paid a handsome retribution as an anti-terrorist protection measure by the wealthy Bitcoin holders in U.S. Bitcoiners outside the U.S. and U.K. would not need to worry about being blown up that much, yet still will contribute greatly to protection of whatever cities/countries they reside in.
Re: Bitcoin 2014 – Top predictions
#58Here's one that I'm sure I'm going to regret saying publicly later. But, here goes: Dogecoin will outperform Bitcoin in terms of percentage market cap growth in 2014. Even if both are negative.
Re: Bitcoin 2014 – Top predictions
#59Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's not really useless. There is Primecoin that is searching for prime chains as proof of work. At the moment there is no (public?) GPU miner. The involved computations are also difficult to port to the GPU.
Primecoin? It's not solving a "problem" as it claims, there's nothing that can be solved with chains of primes. They're interesting but that's about the end of it. The vastly smaller network means it's a lot more susceptible to attacks.
I'm more interested in better and faster miners for Primecoin as this is a pretty interesting problem to solve. Getting rich with either of these coins is pretty much impossible if you are not already wealthy and able to invest a good amount of money and energy - especially in the BTC ecosystem.
Re: Bitcoin 2014 – Top predictions
#60Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Nobody would trust a lolcat with their money much less a shibe. Don't get me wrong; I'm not saying Dogecoin will pivot into a serious currency. I'm talking strictly relative growth here, and BTC is currently over 1000x bigger. I think it'll become a defacto tipping currency of the net, and there's plenty of room for the market cap to grow to support just that niche, if it goes relatively mainstream. As far as VC mon…
Speaking of dogecoin, I want to pick up some dogecoin without any bitcoin on hand to trade and without elevating my risk to fraud any more than necessary. I realize there are forums and presumably faqs, possibly "the same way you'd pick up bitcoin," but what is the HN prescription to go about doing this? Given that it's relatively nascent, low turnover, goofy and so forth, I'm apprehensive when hearing "very coinbase…