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Can China build its own ASML?

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Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#51
The latest from Huawei (which is probably the company to watch here) is an idea called "logic folding" which will squeeze more juice out of DUVL by 3D-stacking logic chips.

So far they have announced road maps and benchmarks for their upcoming products using this. A new Kirin-series phone/laptop chip and an Ascend AI accelerator - stated performance comparable to leading US products made with EUVL.

Products are due in August.

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The comparison with cars and cellphones falls short for ASML machines. The former categories involved western companies transferring IP to Chinese counterparts. So far, the Chinese have succeeded in stealing IP from ASML, but this is complexity in its own category. Also, the whole supply chain is part of the solution. That is a lot to copy. But I agree that, given enough time, China should be able to. But Volvo en Te…

people overstate complexity of ASmL machines. They are not impossible to make or use, specialist work sure but its possible. The only reason why no one does it is: 1) IP laws, 2) Costs China has Money and Smart people. (and very effective corporate / nationstate espionage) so they can most certainly reproduce advanced machines. They might not have incentive yet to do it because it will not make them popular, and pote…

Why do you think they don't want to do it? I find that a weird statement, and your given reasons don't make sense to me. This is one of their core programs, and as part of that have taken over some IP via espionage programs. China is actively trying to build one for quite some time now.

  > people overstate complexity of ASmL machines. They are not impossible to make or use, specialist work sure but its possible. The only reason why no one does it is: 1) IP laws, 2) Costs
Citation needed, if these were the real roadblocks China would have had the machines by now already. Even with all the parts at hands (don't forget: from a total of 5100 suppliers) the Chinese couldn't assemble one. It is complex with a lot of know-how involved.

The real reasons are: enormous complexity, lots of original research involved, deeply specialized supply chains. Recreating that takes lots of time and money. Even if you cut corners and steal IP. So that leaves China with 'time' as the real impediment. And who knows, AI will be a boost to get to that goal?

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#54
post #51

The latest from Huawei (which is probably the company to watch here) is an idea called "logic folding" which will squeeze more juice out of DUVL by 3D-stacking logic chips. So far they have announced road maps and benchmarks for their upcoming products using this. A new Kirin-series phone/laptop chip and an Ascend AI accelerator - stated performance comparable to leading US products made with EUVL. Products are due i…

HUAWEI Presents the Tau (τ) Scaling Law, Enabling Breakthroughs in Transistor Density and System Performance

https://www.huawei.com/en/news/2026/5/ieee-iscas-tau-scaling

[Shanghai, China, May 25, 2026] Today, at the 2026 IEEE International Symposium on Circuits and Systems (ISCAS), He Tingbo from HUAWEI delivered a keynote speech titled "New Semiconductor Path in Practice". In her speech, she presented the Tau (τ) Scaling Law, a new principle for guiding the future development of the semiconductor industry. This law proposes replacing geometric scaling with time (τ) scaling as a new guiding principle for the evolution of both semiconductors and electronic systems. Based on this principle, innovative technologies such as LogicFolding can be used to continuously compress signal propagation delay and steadily improve transistor density, which will drive the ongoing evolution of semiconductors and electronic systems.

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#55
post #47

The answer is, of course, yes. What is there to stop them? Sure, it's difficult -- but where there's a will, and where the resources of China are involved, there is most assuredly a way. I remember when their cars were a joke, and when their cellphones were cheap trash. Now I don't think I'd buy a non-Chinese new car or cellphone, lol.

"What is there to stop them?" Washington for sure is trying their very best and has so far been quite successful.

ASML of the Netherlands agreed to go along with past US requests to not supply China with bleeding edge machines, so China is making do with the older models while working hard to break the non-US hardware monopoly.

Washington, via the recent MATCH Act, has requested ASML to not supply or maintain any of the older equipment.

ASML has travelled to Washington to tell US Congress to take a long walk off a short pier.

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#56
post #55
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"What is there to stop them?" Washington for sure is trying their very best and has so far been quite successful.

ASML of the Netherlands agreed to go along with past US requests to not supply China with bleeding edge machines, so China is making do with the older models while working hard to break the non-US hardware monopoly. Washington, via the recent MATCH Act, has requested ASML to not supply or maintain any of the older equipment. ASML has travelled to Washington to tell US Congress to take a long walk off a short pier.

If history is a guide, the Dutch will do what the US asks of them.

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#57
post #47

The answer is, of course, yes. What is there to stop them? Sure, it's difficult -- but where there's a will, and where the resources of China are involved, there is most assuredly a way. I remember when their cars were a joke, and when their cellphones were cheap trash. Now I don't think I'd buy a non-Chinese new car or cellphone, lol.

"What is there to stop them?" Washington for sure is trying their very best and has so far been quite successful.

The US has successfully stopped them from acquiring the machines. That's not the same as stopping them from acquiring the capability to make them. On the contrary.

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#59
post #56
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ASML of the Netherlands agreed to go along with past US requests to not supply China with bleeding edge machines, so China is making do with the older models while working hard to break the non-US hardware monopoly. Washington, via the recent MATCH Act, has requested ASML to not supply or maintain any of the older equipment. ASML has travelled to Washington to tell US Congress to take a long walk off a short pier.

If history is a guide, the Dutch will do what the US asks of them.

Sadly yes, wish we'd just told them to fuck off and make a deal with China, they are the future - but we seem to be very scared of daddy.

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Makes you wonder why the USA hasn't built one? They basically (almost) did. In 2013 ASML bought US Cymer(the maker of EUV light sources) and in 2001 ASML acquired the US-based lithography equipment manufacturer Silicon Valley Group (SVG) after it had encountered liquidity issues. Basically, the US had everything needed, the EUV light sources and lithography machines, just spread over different companies facing finan…

"Most of [IP of ASML] comes from US" is an extremely generous sentence. It is true those companies you referred to were bought and their IP has helped ASML in _EUV_, but they had 20 years of European IP before that, all related other parts of the lithography machine (and not EUV) that made ASML the company it is. If you think that complexity is only in (light) source for EUV (is it already profitable for ASML, by the…

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