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Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

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Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#51

Post by scottyah »

bilbo0s wrote: post #16
downrightmike wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China launched a direct competitor on June 2nd "China launches debut mission of Falcon 9-like rocket with no advance notice" https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/... Spacex is going to get rekt, China has all the materials and workforce

Well, SpaceX is supposed to be more about AI than low cost orbital launches. At least that’s what their roadshow is claiming. But either way, yeah, I’m not willing to bet much money on USD4.3T unless we can get some serious financial engineering, (read “circular deals”), going.

We've seen through Tesla that software, government regulation, and to a smaller degree build quality are the only moats against China that still currently hold.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#52

Post by shimman »

square_usual wrote: post #29

[flagged]

eh, am very biased as I design similar sites but I honestly prefer these to what would be likely string of random social media posts.

I like having relevant graphics stickied while text is displayed alongside it (assuming by blog post you mean the typical page-like top to bottom approach).

edit: damn, if these designs are hated what modern approaches do people like? I feel like scroll based text is a relatively unexplored idea compared to the typical blog post.

When it comes to web content, I vastly prefer web like interfaces that you can't reproduce in print.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#53

Post by giancarlostoro »

square_usual wrote: post #29

[flagged]

My corporate firewall blocked this due to it being a newly registered domain.

So I can't even see it, I care less about "vibe coding" but it sounds like someone registered a domain just to get attention on their amazing take about why they think they're qualified to tell the world the future.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#54

Post by slopinthebag »

grassfedgeek wrote: post #49
square_usual wrote: post #29

[flagged]

Tired of you vibe coding detectives. Who the heck cares? If you don't use AI these days you're not smart. Why call it out, as if you caught them doing something unethical?

Because a lot of us don’t want to see AI slop and it’s very useful to have that pointed out in the comments before I waste time clicking on the link and slowly coming to that realization myself.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#55

Post by mohamedkoubaa »

zuzululu wrote: post #14
SXX wrote: post #2

You never know what inflation gonna be in futute. In some countries that turned into autocracies with strong and long standing leaders who love traditional values and religion inflation can easily be 30-70% a year. Then not only 4.3T reachable, but even 43T.

at that inflation rate the US dollar would lose its reserve currency status so I doubt it at some point interest rates should reach double digits like in the 70s following oil crisis the only crazy scenario for spaceX is it does space exploration/mining and finds something extremely exotic or valuable and sought after.

Reserve currency status is already doomed it's a matter of when not if

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#56

Post by ceejayoz »

grassfedgeek wrote: post #49
square_usual wrote: post #29

[flagged]

Tired of you vibe coding detectives. Who the heck cares? If you don't use AI these days you're not smart. Why call it out, as if you caught them doing something unethical?

An AI design is an imperfect hint that the copy may also be similarly generated.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#57

Post by wnmurphy »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #37
m3kw9 wrote: post #12

I know this sounds "bad" but early in Tesla's forcasts, I've seen many "highly unlikely" articles, but Tesla ended up blowing past expectations. This one is tough too, but I hate just dismiss it as unlikely especially with Elon at the helm

Tesla spent almost years scraping by, almost went bankrupt in 2018, had three years of "exceeds expectation" from 2020 to 2023 and is now being murdered by competitors. A lot of "income" comes from selling regulatory credits, not cars. FSD is up to v14 and there is no sense in which it's "Full", or is likely to be "Full" any time soon. The early computer industry created a good few companies which achieved profitabil…

> FSD is up to v14 and there is no sense in which it's "Full", or is likely to be "Full" any time soon.

I think the SpaceX IPO is way overvalued, but have you actually tried FSD v14 yourself?

My car has 8-year old hardware running v12, and it handles like 90+% of my driving. When I test drove 14 it blew my mind how good it had gotten in only 8 months of development. In my opinion, there's question that it's "when," not "if."

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#58

Post by downrightmike »

Isamu wrote: post #18
downrightmike wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China launched a direct competitor on June 2nd "China launches debut mission of Falcon 9-like rocket with no advance notice" https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/... Spacex is going to get rekt, China has all the materials and workforce

China has multiple reusable rocket programs, the reuse will become key to driving down costs.

yeah, and it will slice $T off of spacex easily

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#59

Post by SiempreViernes »

grassfedgeek wrote: post #49
square_usual wrote: post #29

[flagged]

Tired of you vibe coding detectives. Who the heck cares? If you don't use AI these days you're not smart. Why call it out, as if you caught them doing something unethical?

You know there's like an entire generation of devs raised hearing "copyright violations are theft, don't do it, it's band"? Unsurprisingly many of these people indeed think that when Anthropic and OpenAI does industrial scale copyright theft that's bad.

Also, calling most of humanity "stupid" is pretty stupid.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#60

Post by a_shovel »

d_silin wrote: post #32

SpaceX already blown through a number of "... but this cannot be!" forecasts. Would not discount them easily.

Skeptics said SpaceX would fail, but it succeeded. Therefore, skepticism in general is wrong and SpaceX will have an annual revenue of $11 quadrillion by 2030.
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