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AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

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Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#51
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

not to be too pedantic but sourced doesn't usually mean accurate. sourced can very well be fantasy. it will be a 'sourced fantasy' in that case or hallucination if you used a LLM.

Sure. So which chart does our anonymous coward think is a fantasy, and why?

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it's a really stupid lie. You can look at all my essays and presentations online. I've spent some time discussing why people are interested in blockchains as software platforms, and what would be good and bad arguments around that. But I've never suggested anyone buy a token - indeed, I was pretty vocal in pointing to speculative bubbles and silly ideas, like NFTs.

Here you go: https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2018/11/01/benedict-evans-cryptoc...

Nope. This is the exact quote.

Crypto today has a lot in common with both the internet in 1993 and the internet in 1999. Huge potential with few of the use cases invented yet, combined with froth, scams and delusion. This makes it easier to dismiss (“useless AND a scam!”).

But dismissing crypto as a useless scam is much like looking at Usenet, Cuecat and Boo .com and dismissing the internet. It mistakes applications for the enabling layer.

Looking at crypto and only seeing the scams is like looking at the internet in 1999 and only seeing the bubble.

Looking at crypto and seeing no use cases is like looking at the internet in 1993, when the web was 3% of traffic

Another parallel: 1993 - people complaining the term should be internets, not internet 2018 - people complaining 'that's not what crypto means'

You could argue I was wrong and blockchain's potential never turned into anything much. It actually has become a huge deal as plumbing in the finance industry, but not much else. But so what? This was an interesting tech that hasn't really worked out. Welcome to the tech industry.

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

antirez running (quantized) DeepSeek V4 Pro on a Mac Studio M3 Ultra with 512GB of RAM: https://bsky.app/profile/antirez.bsky.social/post/3mlzwmvlov... It's much closer than you think. We're going to see specialized hardware in the next 24 months capable of running 2025-era frontier models. That's big.

That specialized hardware will be scooped up by AI data-centers, just like RAM is today.

No more than Mac Studios. Datacenters need different hardware.

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#55
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The implication is that it's a bot saying this, not a person.

Doesn't seem like a bot, and even if it were, the critique is germane. Calling for a name is a little threatening.

Looking at a 80 slide deck and saying that the charts are 'fantasies' is not a germane criticism at all. it's handwaving.

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here you go: https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2018/11/01/benedict-evans-cryptoc...

Nope. This is the exact quote. Crypto today has a lot in common with both the internet in 1993 and the internet in 1999. Huge potential with few of the use cases invented yet, combined with froth, scams and delusion. This makes it easier to dismiss (“useless AND a scam!”). But dismissing crypto as a useless scam is much like looking at Usenet, Cuecat and Boo .com and dismissing the internet. It mistakes applications…

Nope what? You just confirmed the OP’s point. Glad we’re all in agreement.

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#58
post #43
post #13

>>Companies report ‘annualised’ revenue, defined as sum of previous 4 weeks multiplied by 13. why is it multiplied by 13?

this took a bit of a mathematical turn because of my poor phrasing. what i was actually intrigued by was how does revenue of 4 weeks become "annualized" by just multiplying it with 13.

Because that's 364 days.

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#59
post #3

Didn't Ben Evans previously shill for bitcoin, which is now omitted in the graphs for "disruptive technologies"? This is a marketing Gish Gallop talk that pretends to invalidate counterarguments with a couple of fantasy graphs.

[flagged]

Unflagged as I don't feel this comment deserves to be flagged. The call for reposting with a real name is unnecessary though - if an internet comment is incorrect or overstates the case, just reply to correct it or ignore it.

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#60
post #31

> What happened the last time that everything changed? * Hardware era (pre 1995s) -> IBM, Intel, Microsoft, Apple * Internet era (1994-2001) -> Amazon, Google, Meta, Salesforce * Mobile era (iPhone+ era) -> Uber, Mobile Games, Youtube, Snapchat, Tiktok, Airbnb * Cloud era (AWS+ era) -> AWS, GCP, Azure, Snowflake, Databricks and bunch of other data & database startups AI era (ChatGPT+ era) -> Change is inevitable

? That appears to be arbitrary eras then arbitrary companies from that era. Do you think Amazon and Google disappeared after 2001? Do you think databricks is now bigger than IBM? Change might be inevitable, but I'm not sure your list shows or proves that.

> Do you think Amazon and Google disappeared after 2001?

I don't think that was implied at all, just that the context of the web is what allowed those companies to pop up.

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