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AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

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Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#41

Post by dist-epoch »

nmfisher wrote: post #33
dist-epoch wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What good is an open-weights DeepSeek model if you have nowhere to run it? OpenAI / Google / Anthropic / XAI also have a ton of compute. That is the real moat.

antirez running (quantized) DeepSeek V4 Pro on a Mac Studio M3 Ultra with 512GB of RAM: https://bsky.app/profile/antirez.bsky.social/post/3mlzwmvlov... It's much closer than you think. We're going to see specialized hardware in the next 24 months capable of running 2025-era frontier models. That's big.

That specialized hardware will be scooped up by AI data-centers, just like RAM is today.

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#42

Post by zx0r23 »

dist-epoch wrote: post #14

It will literally eat the world. Just like we crowded out wild animals in a few reserved areas, so will AI data centers crowd us out. To quite Ilya Sutskever: > I think it’s pretty likely the entire surface of the earth will be covered with solar panels and data centers.

Or we could not do that...

Technology is meant to serve us not drive us into a hellscape lol

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#43

Post by dwa3592 »

dwa3592 wrote: post #13

>>Companies report ‘annualised’ revenue, defined as sum of previous 4 weeks multiplied by 13. why is it multiplied by 13?

this took a bit of a mathematical turn because of my poor phrasing. what i was actually intrigued by was how does revenue of 4 weeks become "annualized" by just multiplying it with 13.

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#44

Post by eli »

dist-epoch wrote: post #23
flossly wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that DeepSeek may be important to that. They have a really good model that's open source, raising the bar for all other players: how good your model needs to be so you can make meaningful money on it (better than DeepSeek). Same thing happened on other places the open source offering became popular.

What good is an open-weights DeepSeek model if you have nowhere to run it? OpenAI / Google / Anthropic / XAI also have a ton of compute. That is the real moat.

It's quite expensive to self-host but you have many places to run it. OpenRouter alone lists a dozen different providers for DeepSeek 4 Pro. https://openrouter.ai/deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro/providers.

So long as there is demand, there are always going to be providers competing to offer it at a low cost. My understanding is that the median price on there is in the ballpark of what it costs to run the inference. This is very different from e.g. Opus, which you can basically only buy from Anthropic at the price they set.

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#45

Post by benedictevans »

lorecore wrote: post #39
benedictevans wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

It is an indisputable fact that you spent years shilling crypto. Why even deny that or threaten(!) someone pointing it out? It was/is a huge, verifiable chunk of your public output.

No, it's a really stupid lie. You can look at all my essays and presentations online.

I've spent some time discussing why people are interested in blockchains as software platforms, and what would be good and bad arguments around that. But I've never suggested anyone buy a token - indeed, I was pretty vocal in pointing to speculative bubbles and silly ideas, like NFTs.

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#47

Post by benedictevans »

asrqwj wrote: post #28
adamtaylor_13 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The implication is that it's a bot saying this, not a person.

No it isn't. The implication is that pro-AI people can take revenge. He knows he is secure with his opinions. He even paraphrases Andreesen's title "software will eat the world". He has repeatedly appeared at a16z. It is very secure to be pro-AI while the rest has to resort to unregistered typewriters like in the Soviet Union.

[flagged]

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#48

Post by jkhdigital »

kannanvijayan wrote: post #37

This is a reasonably well-examined take of the situation. On the technical side, one of the additional things I've had on my mind is the potential that these mega models are in fact hiding a ton of inefficiency. The approach of simply shoving higher dimensionality and more parameters into largely tweaks to the current models has delivered results, but it feels like "mainframe" era of computing to me. Throwing reams o…

Right, the crazy thing is that much of the groundwork for the “rules-and-heuristics” mode of AI was laid down in the 70s and 80s, long before we had the raw compute power to reliably extract patterns from reality-scale inputs. Those early efforts failed miserably mostly because the rules had to be populated manually and in a ridiculously space-inefficient format (compared to the density of information in model weights).

So yeah, the next stage is models that basically do what humans do: encode causal models of the world in a composable, symbolic form that can be falsified and refined through interventional experiments.

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#49

Post by lorecore »

benedictevans wrote: post #45
lorecore wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is an indisputable fact that you spent years shilling crypto. Why even deny that or threaten(!) someone pointing it out? It was/is a huge, verifiable chunk of your public output.

No, it's a really stupid lie. You can look at all my essays and presentations online. I've spent some time discussing why people are interested in blockchains as software platforms, and what would be good and bad arguments around that. But I've never suggested anyone buy a token - indeed, I was pretty vocal in pointing to speculative bubbles and silly ideas, like NFTs.

Here you go:

https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2018/11/01/benedict-evans-cryptoc...

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#50

Post by benedictevans »

hansmayer wrote: post #30
benedictevans wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Yeah, beyond this mumbo-jumbo non-answer of yours, did you or did you not push crypto? Because if you did...it could kind of not speak for your analytical competence.

'these charts are fantasies' is a non-criticism from an anonymous moron. If there is an actual criticism of an actual point, make it.

Back when people were interested in Blockchains, I explained why people in tech were interested. I'm happy to explain that again now, if anyone cared. If someone thinks that's bad, they're a fool.

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