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Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

theguardian.com

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Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#51

Post by pjc50 »

tmnvix wrote: post #15

> “For the purposes of this market, an ‘official ceasefire agreement’ requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.” (by March 31) Seems a rather risky bet considering how deep Israel has ventured into its war in Lebanon. Very doubtful they will stop anytime soon. Given the leverage Israel ha…

I can't see it being over in a week. People seem to have not realized that the Iranian regime is large enough and possessed of enough of a sense of honor to not just surrender after a week. Plus the use of decapitation attacks makes it extremely difficult for the Iranians to talk each other down. And the US can't negotiate on behalf of Israel or bind them to not break the ceasefire, because there's a separate and much longer lasting conflict between Israel and Iran that has been going on since the revolution.

On the other hand, there is no way to "destroy Trump's career". The US system doesn't have confidence votes. You're stuck with him.

Edit: it is an unfortunate aspect of the minor World War that the Iran war has overshadowed the war in Lebanon, whatever is happening in Syria, and the weird UAE backed war in Sudan.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#52

Post by 871ajh-121 »

Trump always announces ceasefires, negotiations and "deals" when the other party doesn't even know about it. Or, in the middle of real negotiations, he attacks.

This 5 day extension is to replenish US stocks and build up the marines in the region. while Israel continues to attack all the time.

The only deal that may have emerged in secret is for Iran not to hit the Dimona nuclear power plant and for Israel/US not to hit the Bushehr nuclear power plant.

Of course Trump's cronies will utilize the volatility and insider knowledge. The entire presidency is there to enrich his clan.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#53

Post by standardUser »

vkou wrote: post #35
standardUser wrote: post #21

There's something funny about watching global markets react to Trump's every lazy lie as if Moses himself just passed down orders. Maybe funny is the wrong word. The kicker is that this isn't even Trump's war and he likely lacks the capacity to end it if he wanted to.

> The kicker is that this isn't even Trump's war That's quite possible. > and he likely lacks the capacity to end it if he wanted to. Nah, he could end it any time he wants. Iran will stop bombing its neighbors in a week or so, and things will more or less return to the pre-war status quo. He chooses to not end it, because the one thing that he cannot stand is losing face .

Iran will not stop harassing the region, and perhaps not even allow the strait to open, if Israel is still bombing them or fighting a proxy war in Lebanon. So Trump can pack up and head back to this side of the planet, having made our country a few trillion dollars poorer in the process, but the war doesn't ends until Iran and Israel decide it ends.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#54

Post by xg15 »

mikkupikku wrote: post #17

If the administration decides to end this stupid war just so they can cash out some profitable bets... I don't even know what I would think. The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt.

That would be darkly hilarious, but I think it could also be the opposite way around: That there is a ceasefire shaping up, and some of Trump's staffers couldn't hold it anymore and placed bets using their knowledge - therefore accidentally "leaking" the plans.

At least I'm having my hopes up for this.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#55

Post by pjc50 »

jmyeet wrote: post #37

There are lists of the worst decisions of the Supreme Court in history (eg [1]). Dred Scott [2] often tops such lists. I believe that Trump v. United States [3] will go on such lists in the near future. Why? Because it opened the floodgates on corruption on a scale we previously haven't seen. The president has absolute immunity. The president's communications with the Attorney-General can't even be examined, basicall…

Republicans spent about 40 years stacking the court with partisans in order to overturn Roe v Wade, and got the corruption as a bonus.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#56

Post by huijzer »

delecti wrote: post #44
huijzer wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When do we cross the barrier from incompetent to nefarious?

They're orthogonal, so there's no barrier. They're all nefarious, and most are also incompetent.

And they are not nefarious and competent while pretending to be incompetent?

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#57

Post by munk-a »

nostromo wrote: post #25
munk-a wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would be too - if we didn't have prior evidence of massive insider trading on prediction markets.

Insider trading makes prediction markets more accurate, not less.

It also warps reality to adhere to the prediction markets. There was a famous rash of objects being thrown onto WNBA courts recently that was spurred on by the potential for financial gain.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#58

Post by MrLeap »

bjackman wrote: post #30

What signs? This article is absolute slop (not AI, but slop). I do not have any reason to doubt that people are doing insider trading. The US admin is obviously corrupt and the Iran attacks are the most abject symptom of its corruption so far. But you can't just put out a bunch of completely isolated observations with zero analysis and say "that looks like insider trading". There is nothing at all in here that presen…

I appreciate your perspective on this. We're living in an era of sensationalism and noise. It wont get better until a lot of people from every political disposition becomes tired of hollow words designed only to create BIG FEELINGS.

Imagine an era where the majority leans in on a balance of compassion for self and others.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#60

Post by parsimo2010 »

mikkupikku wrote: post #17

If the administration decides to end this stupid war just so they can cash out some profitable bets... I don't even know what I would think. The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt.

The article isn’t implying that Trump is going to seek a ceasefire because of some puny bets on Polymarket, it’s implying that someone (or multiple people) close to Trump heard he was considering a ceasefire and placed a bet before Trump posted about it and the odds went up. Or they at least knew that him posting about it would affect the ours enough to make money, whether he plans to negotiate a ceasefire for real.
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