There's something funny about watching global markets react to Trump's every lazy lie as if Moses himself just passed down orders. Maybe funny is the wrong word. The kicker is that this isn't even Trump's war and he likely lacks the capacity to end it if he wanted to.
Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
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Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#22Earlier quoted context omitted.
A few major actors in predictions markets (1) Recreational or addicted gamblers (2) Hedging your investments or exposure to an event by betting on it as insurance (3) Insiders (4) Information arbitrage (researchers, etc) Three (3) and Four (4) are probably the most important for conveying useful information in pricing. I see it as a good, not bad thing, they are involved.
mh. Guess my view of betting is too naive. I wouldn't have expected anything beyond (1). With my usual addictive behaviour, I think it's prob best I stay away from that though.. :)
(1) provides an incentive for the rest to participate.
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#23[dead]
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#24> “For the purposes of this market, an ‘official ceasefire agreement’ requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.” (by March 31) Seems a rather risky bet considering how deep Israel has ventured into its war in Lebanon. Very doubtful they will stop anytime soon. Given the leverage Israel ha…
There was an interesting article in a local paper here about non zionist Jews emigrating from Israel.
There are no missiles and draft in Western Europe and the shops are open on every holy day.
Unfortunately this leaves the holy land to the fanatics.
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#25Highly skeptical of using a betting platform as an indication of insider knowledge and something to base your decisions off of. People will bet, and it's a 50/50 decision between "ceasfire yes / no". People vote with their gut.
I would be too - if we didn't have prior evidence of massive insider trading on prediction markets.
Insider trading makes prediction markets more accurate, not less.
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#26Earlier quoted context omitted.
Just because it's a binary choice doesn't make it a 50/50 chance. Flipping a fair coin (50/50) is different from flipping a weighted coin (say 80/20) even though the possible outcomes are the same.
No, but I'm just saying, people vote based on feels.
Yes, and they consistently lose money to insiders who vote based on actual knowledge.
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#27> The wallets “definitely [look like] someone with some degree of inside info”, said Ben Yorke, formerly a researcher with CoinTelegraph, now building an AI trading platform called Starchild.
Ben Yorke is the only expert I see mentioned in the article, so it'd be a lot more accurate (and a lot less sensational) if The Guardian changed its title to "... says one expert" (but it wouldn't sound as interesting then, would it?).
> Eight accounts, all newly created around 21 March, bet a total of nearly $70,000 (£52,000) on there being a ceasefire. They stand to make nearly $820,000 if such a deal is reached before 31 March.
Not to sound privileged but $800k doesn't sound like that much of money for someone that has access to that kind of insider knowledge, especially considering the risks.
All things considered, I feel like the same people could make much bigger bets using trad-fi instruments than Polymarket so I don't understand what's so significant about Polymarket "whales".
In the end people just betting on TACO.
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#28Couldn't insiders just trade Brent Crude futures and do the same thing? There's more than enough liquidity in Brent that an insider can make great money.
A market with regulations, vs. no regulations.
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#29If the administration decides to end this stupid war just so they can cash out some profitable bets... I don't even know what I would think. The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt.
I think the main reason is that they were all too incompetent to realize what the effects of the war would be on the global financial system. The bets were probably just a happy opportunity for corruption.
> The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt
Look on the bright side, at least the malicious actors aren't able to competently implement their goals.
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#30What signs? This article is absolute slop (not AI, but slop).
I do not have any reason to doubt that people are doing insider trading. The US admin is obviously corrupt and the Iran attacks are the most abject symptom of its corruption so far.
But you can't just put out a bunch of completely isolated observations with zero analysis and say "that looks like insider trading". There is nothing at all in here that presents an argument for that claim.
I am a daily Guardian reader but I stopped paying for it coz there are so many articles like this that are just complete fucking trash. Because I am the target audience (leftist Euro who can easily get riled up by topics like this) it pisses me off when I feel I'm being manipulated.