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American aviation is near collapse?

theatlantic.com

51–60 of 118 posts

Re: American aviation is near collapse?

#52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Air traffic controllers require a significant investment by the federal government, I take no issue with age limits for both investment (lower bound) and safety reasons (upper bound) (if the data says it is reasonable, I'll always defer to the data). I take exceptional issue with the fact that their pay is not considered essential. There should be no way for this critical infrastructure to be not considered essential…

This assumes that controllers over 56 years old are statistically "unsafe," presumably due to perceived cognitive speed and ability. So unsafe that the concern overrides experience, familiarity with systems, and other key benefits of tenure. I'd love to see that data.

My understanding is the 56 year old age limit is due to burnout and other accumulated negative risk factors from the profession. You have a shelf life like a professional athlete due to the sustained high cognitive load and stress of the workload. Replies open to additional references and citations.

It would make an interesting reality TV show to have a group of 60-70 year olds attempt to perform a simulated 8 hour ATC shift under "live fire" conditions.

https://web.archive.org/web/20260323212332/https://www.crisi...

https://www.faa.gov/newsroom/media/Fatigue_Report.pdf

https://news.siu.edu/2025/07/072225-siu-research-focuses-on-...

Re: American aviation is near collapse?

#53
I am flying from SFO -> DEN in a few days and I see that Denver wait time is 4 minutes and, as is well known, SFO does not use TSA or federal security staff.

Denver does, however, so I wonder why there is no wait at DEN and hundreds of minutes at Houston/Atlanta/JFK ?

Re: American aviation is near collapse?

#55

I'm not saying the article's thesis is wrong, much of it rings true to me, but we have very comprehensive data and statistics concerning air travel so I'm deeply unimpressed by this article instead hanging its argument on a hodgepodge list of incidents instead of digging into the data to get some proper numbers.

We have "proper numbers" for the full range of issues covered in the essay? From airport aesthetics to El Paso being shut down because of lack of coordination around anti-drone testing, or something?

The article is not just about safety, or some other singular topic with clear statistics.

Just because this sentiment will get some cheap upvotes from people who didn't engage with the article doesn't be that the author should have searched for keys under streetlights to provide a false appearance of rigor.

This is an essay from the Atlantic Daily, which is responding, in real time, to the events of the day. It's a minor work of commentary, it is not supposed to be in-depth reporting, and it's bit odd to feel ought to have been a work of investigative reporting, which the Atlantic also does, seperately.

Re: American aviation is near collapse?

#56
post #14

[flagged]

Well, yes, it is. That does not mean that all the problems have been solved by getting rid of those who gained their positions purely based on inalienable characteristics unrelated to job requirements but it does make for a better chance of solving the problems.

Re: American aviation is near collapse?

#57
I am amazed every day that people are expected to turn up every day to work while being unpaid. In westminster-style parlimentary systems, if a government can't guarantee supply[1], they are sacked, and a snap election is called.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence_and_supply

The paralysis of the political system in the US is either a feature or a bug depending on your point of view i suppose, but no question that it is entirely dysfunctional that a government can continue existing if it can't pass a budget.

Re: American aviation is near collapse?

#59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, a tired, overextended air traffic controller at LaGuardia just caused two pilots to die last night while landing. How many deaths would communicate "We have likely reached system failure"? I presume for some, it's going to have to be a few airframes worth of passengers unfortunately. There is a shortage of air traffic controllers. Those working are being pushed to failure. The system as a whole is degrading. Th…

Note also that they deliberately choke off the hiring funnel before they even get applicants, and deliberately dispose of experienced controllers. Air traffic controller applicants must be under 31 years old for initial hire. The mandatory retirement age is 56. Although there are limited exceptions to both rules.

Those age limits should apply to all political offices

Re: American aviation is near collapse?

#60
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. It's not a rigorously defined term. 2. "System collapse" would be unexplored territory, so how would statistical analysis be able to infer when it occurs?

1. Not really. If the crash rates we're seeing under the Trump administration are higher than any similar length period in the last ~10 years, we should start to worry. 2. See above.

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