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AI Is the Bubble to Burst Them All

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Re: AI Is the Bubble to Burst Them All

#51

Post by bofadeez »

diamond559 wrote: post #21
bofadeez wrote: post #3

During most of the dot-com boom, there was not a broad consensus that a bubble existed, whereas today’s AI boom is widely accompanied by media warnings about an AI bubble, making public awareness much higher than it was in the late 1990s. I don't think a single person hasn't heard the "circular financing" talking points from multiple people who think they're being insightful. Or Burry who thinks a GPU should be trash…

There is better awareness of everything bc of the internet, you are just in the disbelief phase even though markets have already peaked and insiders are heading for the exits.

Eugene Fama believes it's impossible to detect a bubble. Why do you think he's wrong?

Re: AI Is the Bubble to Burst Them All

#52

Post by diamond559 »

bentt wrote: post #22
diamond559 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're in the disbelief phase, it sounds like you are overinvested and defensive about your position. The Nasdaq and crypto already peaked, housing is peaking as well, we're in the middle of the crash.

Nope. Is this the same crash that happened when tariffs were announced? What about the 2022 crash? What sort of crash are we talking about? IMO the AI incumbents want to provoke smaller pullbacks on the way up to A) kill competitors who can't handle it and B) prevent a catastrophic crash that would actually hurt them. That's why we see stuff like Thiel selling his NVDA holdings. He's just going to buy back in later.

Target is already 44% down on the year, Meta/Oracle/Tesla/Palantir and many others are 20% off peak, layoffs are at 2008 levels, look at peak to trough 2001 down, that's how bad it can get. Yeah, he'll buy back later, when Nvidia is beaten into the ground and you've all given up hope it will ever go back up again.

Re: AI Is the Bubble to Burst Them All

#53

Post by diamond559 »

bofadeez wrote: post #51
diamond559 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is better awareness of everything bc of the internet, you are just in the disbelief phase even though markets have already peaked and insiders are heading for the exits.

Eugene Fama believes it's impossible to detect a bubble. Why do you think he's wrong?

Why do you think Jeffery Gundlach is wrong when he just said literally everything is overvalued? Everyone knew it was a bubble in 2001 and in 1929, that's part of being a bubble, it doesn't make sense but it just keeps going up ignoring all risks. Is there liquidity for a little more yeah maybe, but when everyone is long and highly leveraged there is only one way for things eventually to go.

Re: AI Is the Bubble to Burst Them All

#54

Post by Gigachad »

saxenaabhi wrote: post #27
ericb wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the tech is real and has great promise. This was very true of the dotcom bubble. The entire "web" was new, and the promise was everything you use it for today . Pets.com was a laughing stock for years as an example of dotcom excess, and now we have chewy.com, successfully running the same model. Webvan.com, was a similar example of "excess" and now we have Instacart and others. I looked up webvan just now--the post…

Isn't openAI already profitable on inference? I understand training is still costly, but it's not unimaginable for it to turn profitable as well if you think believe they'll generate trillions in value by eliminating millions of jobs.

They won’t generate trillions because there are several companies all competing and will undercut each other to win users.

Re: AI Is the Bubble to Burst Them All

#55

Post by vrighter »

yalogin wrote: post #12

I am split on this, this is definitely a bubble but I don’t know if it’s going to crash or wipe out countries. The problem here is the tech is real and has great promise. This is not AGI but llms can make the promise of robots real, by it may take a long time for it to materialize just like with self driving cars. So the hype can subside but it needs an impetus to slide. It may or may not happen and even if it does,…

the tech is real. The problem is that it doesn't have any of the promise it's hyped up to have. We've just about reached their limits.

Re: AI Is the Bubble to Burst Them All

#56

Post by bofadeez »

diamond559 wrote: post #53
bofadeez wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eugene Fama believes it's impossible to detect a bubble. Why do you think he's wrong?

Why do you think Jeffery Gundlach is wrong when he just said literally everything is overvalued? Everyone knew it was a bubble in 2001 and in 1929, that's part of being a bubble, it doesn't make sense but it just keeps going up ignoring all risks. Is there liquidity for a little more yeah maybe, but when everyone is long and highly leveraged there is only one way for things eventually to go.

That person is not even an academic. At least google Eugene Fama so you don't embarrass yourself like this.

What does Ja Rule think about bubbles? Ask him why markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Re: AI Is the Bubble to Burst Them All

#57

Post by luke5441 »

bofadeez wrote: post #51
diamond559 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is better awareness of everything bc of the internet, you are just in the disbelief phase even though markets have already peaked and insiders are heading for the exits.

Eugene Fama believes it's impossible to detect a bubble. Why do you think he's wrong?

Eugene Fama also believes the value of a Bitcoin will be zero (as do I). So he is implicitly calling Bitcoin a bubble.

He does this because he understands how money works and how Bitcoin works.

Re: AI Is the Bubble to Burst Them All

#58

Post by card_zero »

pinkmuffinere wrote: post #33
yalogin wrote: post #12

I am split on this, this is definitely a bubble but I don’t know if it’s going to crash or wipe out countries. The problem here is the tech is real and has great promise. This is not AGI but llms can make the promise of robots real, by it may take a long time for it to materialize just like with self driving cars. So the hype can subside but it needs an impetus to slide. It may or may not happen and even if it does,…

> llms can make the promise of robots real I think this is a very large overstatement. Many large problems still exist in robotics which can not be papered over with LLMs. I’m familiar with problems in manipulation and affordable sensing, which will not be solved via llms, and are fundamentally necessary for reliable and safe interaction with the real world. I’m confident there are many others. LLMs probably will hel…

More on that in an article posted in October: "Why today's humanoids won't learn dexterity", https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45392922

Re: AI Is the Bubble to Burst Them All

#59

Post by bofadeez »

luke5441 wrote: post #57
bofadeez wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eugene Fama believes it's impossible to detect a bubble. Why do you think he's wrong?

Eugene Fama also believes the value of a Bitcoin will be zero (as do I). So he is implicitly calling Bitcoin a bubble. He does this because he understands how money works and how Bitcoin works.

Yes but his point is it's impossible to detect in realtime. Timing.

Re: AI Is the Bubble to Burst Them All

#60

Post by TheAlchemist »

bofadeez wrote: post #3

During most of the dot-com boom, there was not a broad consensus that a bubble existed, whereas today’s AI boom is widely accompanied by media warnings about an AI bubble, making public awareness much higher than it was in the late 1990s. I don't think a single person hasn't heard the "circular financing" talking points from multiple people who think they're being insightful. Or Burry who thinks a GPU should be trash…

There was, at least towards the end. FED chair at the time described it as 'irrational exuberance'. Warren Buffett made an excellent speech in front of most Silicon Valley titans at the time - telling them that their wealth is about to be blown up.

This isn't rocket science - do anybody sane believe that OpenAI will spend what, 1.5 Trillion $ they project ? Quite a big chunck of Oracle, Nvidia and others projections are based on this 1.5 Trillion $. They are loosing money and their revenue is 1% of this figure.

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