11–20 of 83 posts
Its silly to talk about a bubble when all of the major AI companies just recieved 3-5yrs runway in VC. I normally hate the term FUD, bit in this case it's proveably true. Even if these companies collapse in 5 years, thats a lifetime away in tech years, not an immediate bubble.
Its silly to talk about a bubble when all of the major AI companies just recieved 3-5yrs runway in VC. I normally hate the term FUD, bit in this case it's proveably true. Even if these companies collapse in 5 years, thats a lifetime away in tech years, not an immediate bubble.
I don't think it's particularly silly when the rest of the economy is by all indications in a deep recession. If the tech market is literally the only thing holding up the market then you have to ask how and why.
There's a lot of manipulation going on. Attempts to pop the bubble artificially, prematurely. There's a lot of impatience and illusion of control out there. You can bet that when a real bubble bursts, we won't be seeing articles about it on Wired in the run up.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't think it's particularly silly when the rest of the economy is by all indications in a deep recession. If the tech market is literally the only thing holding up the market then you have to ask how and why.
I suspect that isn't true
The top is over performing so concentration is real but it’s not the only growth driver:
https://www.fool.com/research/magnificent-seven-sp-500/
The return / valuation concentration prob not as titillating as the PE run up:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/surprisingly-excellent-run-st...
True or not true hard to say without better definitions of terms but seems like current profile is not ultra common in history but it’s not a bunch of losers getting diluted out.
During most of the dot-com boom, there was not a broad consensus that a bubble existed, whereas today’s AI boom is widely accompanied by media warnings about an AI bubble, making public awareness much higher than it was in the late 1990s. I don't think a single person hasn't heard the "circular financing" talking points from multiple people who think they're being insightful. Or Burry who thinks a GPU should be trash…
https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/a...
https://www.theguardian.com/business/1999/dec/20/nasdaq.efin...
This time, "AI" has been hyped up more than tech in 1999 by the media. The media has just reversed course in 2025 because they found out that most people hate "AI". in 2023-2024 it was mainly hype.
Some have realized that LLMs don’t really reason and that LLMs may not be as amazing as the claims. However, I think LLMs plus agents, plus advances that are likely to come may very well prove to be more valuable than anyone can foresee. It’s very difficult to predict the future profitability of tech.
Do you have a test for this?
Or is it based on the presumption that reasoning skills cannot evolve, it can only be the result of "intelligent design"?
I am split on this, this is definitely a bubble but I don’t know if it’s going to crash or wipe out countries. The problem here is the tech is real and has great promise. This is not AGI but llms can make the promise of robots real, by it may take a long time for it to materialize just like with self driving cars. So the hype can subside but it needs an impetus to slide. It may or may not happen and even if it does,…
This was very true of the dotcom bubble. The entire "web" was new, and the promise was everything you use it for today.
Pets.com was a laughing stock for years as an example of dotcom excess, and now we have chewy.com, successfully running the same model.
Webvan.com, was a similar example of "excess" and now we have Instacart and others.
I looked up webvan just now--the postmortem seems relevant:
"Webvan failed due to a combination of overspending on infrastructure, rapid and unproven expansion, and an unsustainable business model that prioritized growth over profitability."
I am split on this, this is definitely a bubble but I don’t know if it’s going to crash or wipe out countries. The problem here is the tech is real and has great promise. This is not AGI but llms can make the promise of robots real, by it may take a long time for it to materialize just like with self driving cars. So the hype can subside but it needs an impetus to slide. It may or may not happen and even if it does,…
There's a lot of manipulation going on. Attempts to pop the bubble artificially, prematurely. There's a lot of impatience and illusion of control out there. You can bet that when a real bubble bursts, we won't be seeing articles about it on Wired in the run up.