Is the A.I. Boom Turning Into an A.I. Bubble? • Hacker News Board

Re: Is the A.I. Boom Turning Into an A.I. Bubble?

#51

Post by seanmcdirmid » Tue, Aug 12, 2025, 7:03 PM UTC

marcosdumay wrote: post #26

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #22

People have been saying this at least for the last 10 years. I think if advancements stop being made at a rapid clip, the bubble might implode. But every year it seems like its a whole new ballgame. When LLMs start playing the stock market autonomously, then we should start worrying.

Oh, man, there have been 10 years since ChatGPT made the news in 2022? How time flies!

People have been predicting an AI winter ever since DNNs hit it big, and that was 2012/2013 or so. And then every year since 2015 they've been saying "this is the year the AI bubble will finally burst!" And then repeat that the next year.

ChatGPT was just another big leap in a bunch of big leaps that occurred in the last 15 years. You are being disingenuous in pretending that people didn't see AI as being hyped before ChatGPT came out.

Re: Is the A.I. Boom Turning Into an A.I. Bubble?

#52

Post by iaaan » Tue, Aug 12, 2025, 7:05 PM UTC

crystal_revenge wrote: post #36

it_citizen wrote: post #13

> The global pandemic will tank the stock market > War in Ukraine will tank the stock market > High interest rates will tank the stock market > Tariffs will tank the stock market > IA will tank the stock market All those statements made sense to me at the time. And I have no doubt that one of these days, someone will make a correct prediction. But who the hell know what and when. Diversify, be reasonable and be prepa…

Yea, after the pandemic I've stopped making any predictions about the stock market and bubbles. It's clear we're living in an illusion, but I'm pretty sure there are enough people invested in that illusion that it won't stop until it is no longer physically possible to maintain. I'm increasing convinced that when whatever dream we're living in ends, it will end catastrophically, but I'm not even certain I'll live to…

See the documentary Hypernormalization for a more in depth look at this feeling

Re: Is the A.I. Boom Turning Into an A.I. Bubble?

#53

Post by finghin » Tue, Aug 12, 2025, 7:05 PM UTC

reactordev wrote: post #44

crystal_revenge wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea, after the pandemic I've stopped making any predictions about the stock market and bubbles. It's clear we're living in an illusion, but I'm pretty sure there are enough people invested in that illusion that it won't stop until it is no longer physically possible to maintain. I'm increasing convinced that when whatever dream we're living in ends, it will end catastrophically, but I'm not even certain I'll live to…

All it takes is a couple hours of consumer sell-off to trigger a complete collapse.

Very true, and the hedge funds and institutional investors will have game plans for this, some will work, some won’t.

Retail investors, as usual, will be worst hit (I say this as a European with no stake in US stocks).

Re: Is the A.I. Boom Turning Into an A.I. Bubble?

#54

Post by jameshart » Tue, Aug 12, 2025, 7:05 PM UTC

DragonStrength wrote: post #17

mumbisChungo wrote: post #6

No matter how right the AI crowd is, elements of it are/will be a bubble. No matter how right the bubble crowd is, the market becoming irrationally exuberant for a brief period of time does not invalidate the technology or the rapid change we'll see as a result of it.

For sure, the Dotcom crash didn’t mean the web was bad technology.

Not technically bad, anyway. Just… socially destructive to the fragile web that held society together.

Re: Is the A.I. Boom Turning Into an A.I. Bubble?

#55

Post by hodgehog11 » Tue, Aug 12, 2025, 7:06 PM UTC

jcbrand wrote: post #40

hodgehog11 wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And rich people aren't getting richer through smarter investments, but by wealth accumulation on existing assets that people need.

Being able to hold on to wealth is an underestimated and undervalued ability. It's actually pretty easy to lose money. Everybody is happy to help you part with yours.

I really want to believe this, but I have a hard time seeing this applying to the ultra-wealthy nowadays. There are far too many strategies to hold on to your wealth or to get it back.

Aside from lottery winners whose assets start liquid, are there examples of people in the last 5 years with over $100 million in assets that permanently lost most of their wealth without doing something really stupid?

Re: Is the A.I. Boom Turning Into an A.I. Bubble?

#56

Post by Ygg2 » Tue, Aug 12, 2025, 7:08 PM UTC

teaearlgraycold wrote: post #43

Now I’m torn between Betteridge's law and my belief that we’re in a bubble.

No. It was always a bubble. You can thank me later.

Re: Is the A.I. Boom Turning Into an A.I. Bubble?

#57

Post by eikenberry » Tue, Aug 12, 2025, 7:08 PM UTC

antithesizer wrote: post #3

I remember reading this two years ago. And one year ago, too.

Bubbles can last much longer than a couple years. The housing bubble in the US that finally popped in 2008 was building for at least a decade.

Re: Is the A.I. Boom Turning Into an A.I. Bubble?

#58

Post by reactordev » Tue, Aug 12, 2025, 7:08 PM UTC

finghin wrote: post #53

reactordev wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All it takes is a couple hours of consumer sell-off to trigger a complete collapse.

Very true, and the hedge funds and institutional investors will have game plans for this, some will work, some won’t. Retail investors, as usual, will be worst hit (I say this as a European with no stake in US stocks).

I believe their plan is to offload the risk to the chains. I've been asked by several firms if I would be interested in joining them - so I assume that want to lock up their assets on the chain or want to offload risk to it. I'm more keen on the latter.

Still - nobody make any sudden moves and we'll ride out what remaining value we can squeeze.

Re: Is the A.I. Boom Turning Into an A.I. Bubble?

#59

Post by koolba » Tue, Aug 12, 2025, 7:08 PM UTC

it_citizen wrote: post #13

> The global pandemic will tank the stock market > War in Ukraine will tank the stock market > High interest rates will tank the stock market > Tariffs will tank the stock market > IA will tank the stock market All those statements made sense to me at the time. And I have no doubt that one of these days, someone will make a correct prediction. But who the hell know what and when. Diversify, be reasonable and be prepa…

> Diversify, be reasonable and be prepared for it to happen someday.

Indeed, but even with something like SPY, there’s quite the concentration in tech:

    Top 10 Holdings (37.99% of Total Assets)
    NVDA  8.07%
    MSFT  7.37%
    AAPL  5.77%
    AMZN  4.11%
    META  3.12%
    AVGO  2.57%
    GOOGL 2.08%
    GOOG  1.68%
    BRK-B 1.61%
    TSLA  1.61%

Now that’s intentional as it’s market cap weighted. But the investing world is in for a rude awakening if things start to pop.

Re: Is the A.I. Boom Turning Into an A.I. Bubble?

#60

Post by marcosdumay » Tue, Aug 12, 2025, 7:09 PM UTC

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #51

marcosdumay wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh, man, there have been 10 years since ChatGPT made the news in 2022? How time flies!

People have been predicting an AI winter ever since DNNs hit it big, and that was 2012/2013 or so. And then every year since 2015 they've been saying "this is the year the AI bubble will finally burst!" And then repeat that the next year. ChatGPT was just another big leap in a bunch of big leaps that occurred in the last 15 years. You are being disingenuous in pretending that people didn't see AI as being hyped befor…

The finance bubble is pretty much a post-ChatGTP phenomenon.

There was some hype about AI before it, for completely unrelated products, with varying levels of real value behind them. What bubble there was about those has already popped long ago, missing the headlines because of the crypto hype.