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Nvidia won, we all lost

blog.sebin-nyshkim.net

51–60 of 599 posts

Re: Nvidia won, we all lost

#51
NVIDIA is, and will be for at least the next year or two, supply constrained. They only have so much capacity at TSMC for all the chips, and the lion's share of that is going to be going enterprise chips, which sell for an order of magnitude more than the consumer chips.

It's hard to get too offended by them shirking the consumer marker right now when they're printing money with their enterprise business.

Re: Nvidia won, we all lost

#52

Remember when nvidia got caught dropping 2 bits of color information to beat ati in benchmarks? I still can't believe anyone has trusted them since! That is an insane thing to do considering the purpose of the product. For as long as they have competition, I will support those companies instead. If they all fail, I guess I will start one. My spite for them knows no limits

[flagged]

Re: Nvidia won, we all lost

#53
post #25
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I understand it the Disney bots do actually use AI in a novel way: https://la.disneyresearch.com/publication/design-and-control... So there’s at least a bit more “there” there than the Tesla bots.

I believe its RL trained only. See this snipet : "Operator Commands Are Merged: The control system blends expressive animation commands (e.g., wave, look left) with balance-maintaining RL motions" I will print a full retraction if someone can confirm my gut feeling is correct

Having worked on control systems a long time ago, that's a 'nothing' statement: the whole job of the control system is to keep the robot stable/ambulating, regardless of whatever disturbances occur. It's meant to reject the forces induced due to waving exactly as much as bumping into something unexpected.

It's easier to stabilise from an operator initiated wave, really; it knows it's happening before it does the wave, and would have a model of the forces it'll induce.

Re: Nvidia won, we all lost

#54
post #33
post #24

Right now, all silicon talk is bullshit. It has been for a while. It became obvious when old e-waste Xeons were turned into viable, usable machines, years ago. Something is obviously wrong with this entire industry, and I cannot wait for it to pop. THIS will be the excitement everyone is looking for.

Do you have a timeframe for the pop? I need some excitement.

More a sequence of potential events than a timeframe.

High-end GPUs are already useless for gaming (a low-end GPU is enough), their traditional source of demand. They're floating on artificial demand for a while now.

There are two markets that currently could use them: LLMs and Augmented Reality. Both of these are currently useless, and getting more useless by the day.

CPUs are just piggybacking on all of this.

So, lots of things hanging on unrealized promises. It will pop when there is no next use for super high-end GPUs.

War is a potential user of such devices, and I predict it could be the next thing after LLMs and AR. But then if war breaks out in such a scale to drive silicon prices up, lots of things are going to pop, and food and fuel will boom to such a magnitude that will make silicon look silly.

I think it will pop before it comes to the point of war driving it, and it will happen within our lifetimes (so, not a Nostradamus-style prediction that will only be realized long-after I'm dead).

Re: Nvidia won, we all lost

#55

This guy makes some good points but he clearly has a bone to pick. Calling dlss snake oil was where I stopped reading

The article doesn't make the best argument to support the claim but it's true that NVIDIA is now making claims like '4090 level performance' on the basis that if you turn on DLSS multi-frame generation you suddenly have Huge Framerates when most of the pixels are synthesized instead of real.

Personally I'm happy with DLSS on balanced or quality, but the artifacts from framegen are really distracting. So I feel like it's fair to call their modern marketing snake oil since it's so reliant on frame gen to create the illusion of real progress.

Re: Nvidia won, we all lost

#58
post #10

I don’t want to jump on nvidia but I found it super weird when they clearly remote controlled a Disney bot onto the stage and claimed it was all using real time AI which was clearly impossible due to no latency and weirdly the bot verifying correct stage position in relation to the presenter. It was obviously the Disney bot just being controlled by someone off stage. I found it super alarming because why would they f…

There's also a very thick coat of hype in https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/glossary/ai-factory/ and related material, even though the underlying product (an ML training cluster) is real.

Re: Nvidia won, we all lost

#59
I’m sorry but this framing is insane

> So 7 years into ray traced real-time computer graphics and we’re still nowhere near 4K gaming at 60 FPS, even at $1,999.

The guy is complaining that a product can’t live up to his standard, while dismissing barely noticeable proposed trade off that can make it possible because it’s «fake».

Re: Nvidia won, we all lost

#60
post #9

High end GPU has over the last 5 years slowly turning from an enthusiast product into a luxury product. 5 or maybe 10 years ago, high-end GPU are needed to run games at reasonably eye candy setting. In 2025, $500 mid-range GPUs are more than enough. Folks all over can barely tell between High and Ultra settings, DLSS vs FSR, or DLSS FG and Lossless Scaling. There's just no point to compete at $500 price point any mor…

I bought a new machine with an RTX 3060 Ti back in 2020 and it's still going strong, no reason to replace it.
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