Ask HN: Can we just admit we want to replace jobs with AI?

Throughout human existence there have been only a few means of distribution of resources.

In hunter/gatherer days within small bands, and also to a large extent within families (but perhaps a bit less now) the method was Generalized Reciprocity[1], where people basically take care of each other and share. This was supported by the extremely fertile and bountiful forests and other resources that were shared between early people.

Later, the large "water monopoly" cultures like ancient Egypt had largely Redistributive economies, where resources flowed to the center (the Pharaoh, etc.) and were distributed again outwards.

Finally we got Market Exchange, where people bargain in the marketplace for goods, and this has been efficiently able (to a greater or lesser degree) to distribute resources for hundreds of years. Of course we have some redistributive elements like Social Security and Welfare, but these are limited.

Market Exchange relies now on basically everyone having a Job or another means to acquire money. But with automation this breaks down because jobs will more and more be taken by the AIs and then by robotic AIs.

So only a few possibilities are likely: either we end up with almost everyone a pauper and increase dole payments just up to the point where there's no revolution, or we somehow end up with everyone owning the AI resources and their output, taking the place the forests and other ancient resources played in hunter-gatherer days, and everyone can eventually be wealthy.

It looks as if, at least in the USA we are going down the path of having a tiny oligarch class with everyone else locked out of ownership of the products of the AI, but this may not be true everywhere, and perhaps somehow won't end up being true here.

[1] Stone Age Economics by Marshall Sahlins https://archive.org/details/stoneageeconomic0000sahl/page/n5...

What we need to admit is why we are so scared of this. Do you want to work? If nobody has to work then we are all permanently on holiday. Isn't that good? What are you afraid of here? We just get to spend all day making or finding things fun. Are people afraid because they have no meaning in their lives other than work? Do you need a boss? Are you scared because everyone will be equal and you won't be "special" any more? What is it? I'd really like to know specifically what people are afraid of.

Please just think about it a bit. Everyone seems to be thinking "I'll lose my job!" but what you need to be thinking is "everyone loses their job".

In the whole history of the world, humans have always strived for automating their job and yet, here we are with a single digit unemployment rate.

> but what you need to be thinking is "everyone loses their job".

People realize the end goal, but it's naive to think that will happen overnight.

The road there could get really messy, with a lot of wealth redistribution while a few still hang on to their jobs. Not to mention the truly dystopian scenario where a few companies hold all the compute (and power).

"It looks as if, at least in the USA we are going down the path of having a tiny oligarch class with everyone else locked out of ownership of the products of the AI, but this may not be true everywhere, and perhaps somehow won't end up being true here."

We are already headed towards that in every major economy, and all the others I know of too. Wealth and power started concentrating before AI, so its not just AI.

The group that has the wealth and power has the power to block change. They can distract the hoi polloi with scape goats (e.g. immigrants), culture wars, doomscrolling, day to day survival and a lot more.

The current trajectory is towards a global oligarchic class.