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A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

nature.com

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Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#51

Post by mschild »

SkyMarshal wrote: post #33
chmod775 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suppose that energy still has to go somewhere. Which place will warm up if Europe and North America cool down?

Pretty sure Europe will heat up, NA will cool down. Currently the Atlantic current brings hot water from the equatorial zones up the US east coast, hence the humidity there. And it brings cool water down from the Arctic to Europe’s west coast, hence the mild non-humid climate there. Reversing the current would reverse that dynamic. It might make Europe less suitable to wine growing, for one, which requires mild cool…

The current wouldn't reverse, it would stop or become a lot slower. So cold water would stay in the artic regions and warm water closer to the equator.

I suppose you could compare this to one giant heat pump, circulating a heat source to Europe and North America that makes life livable.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#52

Post by pvaldes »

richardwhiuk wrote: post #22
coremoff wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If nothing else, the UK would more closely resemble central Europe, as I understand it - colder winters, hotter summers

Given a full collapse, wouldn't the UK resemble northern Canada?

There is a good way to see the problem in a second

Think about New York, is at 40 degrees N latitude. This means that if NY would be in the Atlantic coast of Europe would fall in Portugal! a little North to Lisbon! (38ºN). Sometimes Is easy to forget that NY is "Southern Europe" league. Southern than the North Coast of Spain.

Now lets see Quebec (53ºN). Well, London is 51ºN. Without the sea current bringing hot tropical water, London should have practically the same climate than Quebec, and 90% of UK is higher than London, so would enjoy the full whole Canadian winter experience.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#53

Post by jfim »

pphysch wrote: post #38
rcarr wrote: post #11

Anyone else think that all these predictions are going to happen sooner rather than later in terms of the given prediction range? I can't help but think that a study focussing on a specific area like this one, antarctic sea ice, wildfire predictions etc must only be able to take so many variables into account and that second order effects, third order, fourth order and beyond from other climate subsystems are going t…

> compound and significantly accelerate the timeline There's a misconception that the biosphere is a delicate machine that will have a catastrophic internal failure if we don't follow the maintenance bibl^H^H^H^Hmanual, which apparently some experts have access to. In reality, it is a highly dynamic, self-repairing living organism, which we are a part of. There are at least as many negative feedback loops as positive…

> Doomsaying and fearmongering is about power.

Because every warning is about power dynamics, and obviously not about things being dangerous. We should get rid of that "can cause death if ingested" cartel that's putting all of those warnings on household products while at it.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#54

Post by RandomLensman »

fmstack wrote: post #46
snowwrestler wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ireland and Great Britain are at about the same latitude as Labrador in Canada, but benefit from heat transported across the North Atlantic from the Caribbean by warm water. Absent the current that is transporting that warm water, one would expect the GB climate to more closely resemble Labrador’s. In other words, much colder.

not gonna lie, a scenario where a big nasty effect of climate change pastes Europe first might make the powers that be wake up to the impending disaster faster. For the folks with the big money one death in Europe might be more shocking than 100 deaths in India.

If Europe expends much more energy to deal with cold and food production in the cold not sure that would help the world much.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#56

Post by [deleted] »

leptons wrote: post #19
rcarr wrote: post #11

Anyone else think that all these predictions are going to happen sooner rather than later in terms of the given prediction range? I can't help but think that a study focussing on a specific area like this one, antarctic sea ice, wildfire predictions etc must only be able to take so many variables into account and that second order effects, third order, fourth order and beyond from other climate subsystems are going t…

Yes. We're not sleepwalking to an uninhabitable dystopia, we're sprinting towards it. We may all be in for some serious problems in 5 to 10 years. I'm not a climate scientist, this is just an uninformed opinion, but everything I'm reading has me very worried.

[deleted]

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#57

Post by mym1990 »

This has been on my mind this past week(and is only lightly tangential)...but would we be able to observe adaptations being made by plants/animals/ecosystems on a timescale of years or decades...to the changing climate?

Humans will be playing mental gymnastics and politics for quite a while before any true changes to move the needle are made...but all other biological things can just make the adaptations...given enough cycles to recognize that something is different(the last 3 seasons were much wetter or colder or hotter, etc...).

I imagine these adaptations could be earlier/later migrations, reproduction habits, hibernation patterns, food gathering. Not necessarily changes in DNA.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#58

Post by gwerbret »

braaannigan wrote: post #50

I've got a background in this field and I am very surprised to see this published in Nature. The model presented is purely statistical with no representation of the underlying physics. When we are dealing with a phenomenon that is driven by well-understood physical laws (e.g. geophysical fluid dynamics, radiation physics etc) then these physical models are the most reliable basis for prediction. When I say physical m…

The publication is in Nature Communications, which is a bit of a different (lesser) beast than Nature.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#59

Post by PeterStuer »

braaannigan wrote: post #50

I've got a background in this field and I am very surprised to see this published in Nature. The model presented is purely statistical with no representation of the underlying physics. When we are dealing with a phenomenon that is driven by well-understood physical laws (e.g. geophysical fluid dynamics, radiation physics etc) then these physical models are the most reliable basis for prediction. When I say physical m…

We've been very surprised as to which studies made it to nature over the past decade. I can't help but conclude that the influence of (politial) bias has been steadily growing over the years. (Fwiw, i'm personally taking the climate change subject extremely serious).

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#60

Post by bitdivision »

SkyMarshal wrote: post #33
chmod775 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suppose that energy still has to go somewhere. Which place will warm up if Europe and North America cool down?

Pretty sure Europe will heat up, NA will cool down. Currently the Atlantic current brings hot water from the equatorial zones up the US east coast, hence the humidity there. And it brings cool water down from the Arctic to Europe’s west coast, hence the mild non-humid climate there. Reversing the current would reverse that dynamic. It might make Europe less suitable to wine growing, for one, which requires mild cool…

Isn't it the opposite? I was under the impression that warm water from the Caribbean / equitorial zones was currently brought over to Western Europe and the UK.

If the AMOC collapses, that heat will presumably stay in the tropics, and North Western Europe will cool.

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