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Brazil develops tropical wheat and predicts self-sufficiency in 5 years

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Re: Brazil develops tropical wheat and predicts self-sufficiency in 5 years

#51

Auto-sufficiency in 5 years and back to dependency in 25 years, after global warming decimates their agriculture.

Amazingly snarky claim with so few sources to back it up!

> with so few sources to back it up!

There are few sources to back up Global Warming?

Oh, ok. I rest my case.

Re: Brazil develops tropical wheat and predicts self-sufficiency in 5 years

#52
post #9
post #6

Anyone familiar with the governmental policies of Brazil? They mentioned deforestation twice to say that it's not a problem because this will be done on existing farmland. But, how long that will hold when there's money to be made?

If Bolsonaro were still in charge I'd be concerned but Lula is an advocate of indigenous communities so I'm not as worried. There is still plenty of corruption and schemers who will poach land but they won't have a bright green light like they would have before Lula was elected.

Indigenous communities would rather grow wheat and raise cattle and sell timber than pose in grass skirts and lip rings for exploitive camera crews.

Re: Brazil develops tropical wheat and predicts self-sufficiency in 5 years

#53

There are a few things that would make Brazil a lot more stable economically (and even socially and politically) if we achieved self-sufficiency: Fossil fuels: Currently, Brazil is self-sufficient in oil, but we export petrol to buy back refined fuels (gasoline and diesel). If we were self-sufficient in fossil fuels we would be much more immune to inflation every time OPEC decides to reduce oil output. Wheat: We are…

> Achieving self-sufficiency in these three areas would be like a second independence for us (first was when we got free from Portugal).

Every country in the world is dependent on trade, which is saves a lot of money over self-sufficiency. North Korea is the only country that tries self-sufficiency.

If it costs you $100/bushel to produce wheat and you can buy it for $60/bushel (I'm fabricating numbers), why produce it?

Re: Brazil develops tropical wheat and predicts self-sufficiency in 5 years

#54

There are a few things that would make Brazil a lot more stable economically (and even socially and politically) if we achieved self-sufficiency: Fossil fuels: Currently, Brazil is self-sufficient in oil, but we export petrol to buy back refined fuels (gasoline and diesel). If we were self-sufficient in fossil fuels we would be much more immune to inflation every time OPEC decides to reduce oil output. Wheat: We are…

Hum... Nope, Brazil is not really self-sufficient in oil. It was for a while, but the production did not keep up with the domestic consumption. Anyway, Brazil exports its oil and imports some slightly more expensive one because the existing refineries weren't built to process the relatively recently discovered kind of it that consists on most of the production. And there is little sense in upgrading them. About wheat…

What you said is pretty much in agreement with what he said.

Re: Brazil develops tropical wheat and predicts self-sufficiency in 5 years

#55
post #3

Self-sufficiency is not a real metric when it comes to commodities. Wheat sells at the market rate to whoever buys it.

So you learnt no lessons from over-reliance on Russian gas, which has caused widespread misery in Europe. What do you think will happen if there is major crop failure and food shortages? These free-market extremists don't know when to stop, they have caused more damage than the Taliban.

Trade isn’t the problem. War is.

Re: Brazil develops tropical wheat and predicts self-sufficiency in 5 years

#56

There are a few things that would make Brazil a lot more stable economically (and even socially and politically) if we achieved self-sufficiency: Fossil fuels: Currently, Brazil is self-sufficient in oil, but we export petrol to buy back refined fuels (gasoline and diesel). If we were self-sufficient in fossil fuels we would be much more immune to inflation every time OPEC decides to reduce oil output. Wheat: We are…

> Achieving self-sufficiency in these three areas would be like a second independence for us (first was when we got free from Portugal). Every country in the world is dependent on trade, which is saves a lot of money over self-sufficiency. North Korea is the only country that tries self-sufficiency. If it costs you $100/bushel to produce wheat and you can buy it for $60/bushel (I'm fabricating numbers), why produce i…

It is nice to be self-sufficient on survival staples like grains if that is an option. If your competitors are driving a hard bargain and the downside is that you don’t get video game consoles, it isn’t the end of the world, you can call their bluff. If the downside is starvation, it is a bit tougher.

Re: Brazil develops tropical wheat and predicts self-sufficiency in 5 years

#57
post #42

There are a few things that would make Brazil a lot more stable economically (and even socially and politically) if we achieved self-sufficiency: Fossil fuels: Currently, Brazil is self-sufficient in oil, but we export petrol to buy back refined fuels (gasoline and diesel). If we were self-sufficient in fossil fuels we would be much more immune to inflation every time OPEC decides to reduce oil output. Wheat: We are…

"would make Brazil a lot more stable economically (and even socially and politically) " It's the other way around. Brazil and Argentina especially should be rich, what's lacking is coherent social organization from top to bottom. Obviously it matters more at the top, but it has to be borne by regular people as well. Same could be said of other Central/South American nations, but geographic factors and natural resourc…

Why don't the states there organize into a southern United States? It feels silly to talk about self-sufficiency and all when the analog at country level is the USA states. Nobody would expect e.g. Rhode Island to feed itself, but thankfully there is the Midwest. Maybe Bolivar's dream could come true one day.

Re: Brazil develops tropical wheat and predicts self-sufficiency in 5 years

#58

There are a few things that would make Brazil a lot more stable economically (and even socially and politically) if we achieved self-sufficiency: Fossil fuels: Currently, Brazil is self-sufficient in oil, but we export petrol to buy back refined fuels (gasoline and diesel). If we were self-sufficient in fossil fuels we would be much more immune to inflation every time OPEC decides to reduce oil output. Wheat: We are…

> Achieving self-sufficiency in these three areas would be like a second independence for us (first was when we got free from Portugal). Every country in the world is dependent on trade, which is saves a lot of money over self-sufficiency. North Korea is the only country that tries self-sufficiency. If it costs you $100/bushel to produce wheat and you can buy it for $60/bushel (I'm fabricating numbers), why produce i…

Because 'Geopolitical Risk' is a thing.

Its nice when you can buy $60/bushel wheat. Its not so nice when your dealer cuts you off.

The extra $40/bushel you pay to produce in-house, thats your insurance policy against having your supplies cut off. In a world where geopolitical lines are shifting, it's a matter of national security and optionality to have your own food production capacity. Risk management.

Re: Brazil develops tropical wheat and predicts self-sufficiency in 5 years

#59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Amazingly snarky claim with so few sources to back it up!

> with so few sources to back it up! There are few sources to back up Global Warming? Oh, ok. I rest my case.

I think they meant sources about Brazil's agriculture getting decimated in 25 years.

Re: Brazil develops tropical wheat and predicts self-sufficiency in 5 years

#60
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"would make Brazil a lot more stable economically (and even socially and politically) " It's the other way around. Brazil and Argentina especially should be rich, what's lacking is coherent social organization from top to bottom. Obviously it matters more at the top, but it has to be borne by regular people as well. Same could be said of other Central/South American nations, but geographic factors and natural resourc…

Why don't the states there organize into a southern United States? It feels silly to talk about self-sufficiency and all when the analog at country level is the USA states. Nobody would expect e.g. Rhode Island to feed itself, but thankfully there is the Midwest. Maybe Bolivar's dream could come true one day.

The United States grew (colonized, captured, appropriated - feel free to chose the verb that most agrees with your view - it doesn't matter too much) into relatively uninhabited land from a starting point with a relatively uniform culture and ideals. As areas got to a large enough population that they could become a state, they were added to the union.

South American is already mature. The countries there have different political situations and relationships. Trying to bring them into one federal republic is a non-starter -- it ain't gonna happen.

A better model would be the EU where you have mature countries removing trade barriers between them, allowing free immigration, and a single currency. This was anchored by a few large countries that had relatively low corruption, peaceful relations and strong economies.

South America... doesn't quite have a strong set of low corruption and strong economies. There are regular coups and a number of ongoing civil wars that would make trying even for a loose coalition of countries in South America difficult.

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