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Brazil develops tropical wheat and predicts self-sufficiency in 5 years

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21–30 of 255 posts

Re: Brazil develops tropical wheat and predicts self-sufficiency in 5 years

#21

This sounds amazing, but at the same time, I am concerned about the rain forest. Obviously more economically useful crops would accelerate repurposing the rain forest. Maybe the world would need to subsidize Brazil more to keep the rain forest? And could Brazil be expecting more subsidy with this development?

I'm sure some actual Brazilians will comment since many are active on HN.

I remember being asked in elementary school to help "buy a piece of the Amazon to stop it from being cut down". I mentioned this years later to some Brazilian friends, and they found it amazing, saying first that it almost certainly wasn't a specific plot of land, and second that enforcement of property rights and anti-poaching laws in spread-out rural areas has been spotty, and also hindered by violence and corruption.

So I guess it's a thorny question, if someone in Brazil accepts such a subsidy, how that ultimately translates into physically stopping people from making illicit uses of Amazon lands.

Edit: In theory, stopping an illicit farm (which takes time to grow and has to be tended and harvested) would be easier than stopping someone with a pickup truck and chainsaw from just grabbing a bunch of trees for lumber. On the other hand, the U.S. has spent tons of money trying to eradicate poor people's coca farms in the Andes and it doesn't seem to have had the level of success the government hoped for (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coca_eradication).

Meanwhile, some people are apparently still maintaining wildcat marijuana farms on U.S. Federal lands. Wheat farms aren't as profitable as coca or marijuana, but even suppressing certain kinds of farms in remote enough areas seems like it can be non-trivial!

Re: Brazil develops tropical wheat and predicts self-sufficiency in 5 years

#24

An interesting take on this. Will it lead to a general increase for the Global South? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKvT7OS-lbU

Peter Zeihan has a lot of interesting POVs. I'm half way through his first book 'The Accidental Superpower' and he makes convincing arguments all around so far.

Re: Brazil develops tropical wheat and predicts self-sufficiency in 5 years

#25
post #3

Self-sufficiency is not a real metric when it comes to commodities. Wheat sells at the market rate to whoever buys it.

So you learnt no lessons from over-reliance on Russian gas, which has caused widespread misery in Europe.

What do you think will happen if there is major crop failure and food shortages?

These free-market extremists don't know when to stop, they have caused more damage than the Taliban.

Re: Brazil develops tropical wheat and predicts self-sufficiency in 5 years

#26
There are a few things that would make Brazil a lot more stable economically (and even socially and politically) if we achieved self-sufficiency:

Fossil fuels: Currently, Brazil is self-sufficient in oil, but we export petrol to buy back refined fuels (gasoline and diesel). If we were self-sufficient in fossil fuels we would be much more immune to inflation every time OPEC decides to reduce oil output.

Wheat: We are the top of the world exporting foods. We produce 6x our current need. Nevertheless, we still need imported wheat. Ukraine war and dollar variations literary affect our bread.

Fertilizers: The largest world food producer needs imported fertilizers. The irony: our main supplier is Russia. This basically prevents Brazil taking any side in the conflict and affects our (and our buyers) food prices as much as wheat.

Achieving self-sufficiency in these three areas would be like a second independence for us (first was when we got free from Portugal).

Re: Brazil develops tropical wheat and predicts self-sufficiency in 5 years

#27

This sounds amazing, but at the same time, I am concerned about the rain forest. Obviously more economically useful crops would accelerate repurposing the rain forest. Maybe the world would need to subsidize Brazil more to keep the rain forest? And could Brazil be expecting more subsidy with this development?

> concerned about the rain forest.

then go buy some rain forest, and pay at least as much property tax on it as someone converting it to farmland would.

Re: Brazil develops tropical wheat and predicts self-sufficiency in 5 years

#28

An interesting take on this. Will it lead to a general increase for the Global South? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKvT7OS-lbU

Peter Zeihan has a lot of interesting POVs. I'm half way through his first book 'The Accidental Superpower' and he makes convincing arguments all around so far.

I find he continues to make solid arguments though and including his most recent The End of the World Is Just the Beginning.

Re: Brazil develops tropical wheat and predicts self-sufficiency in 5 years

#29

This sounds amazing, but at the same time, I am concerned about the rain forest. Obviously more economically useful crops would accelerate repurposing the rain forest. Maybe the world would need to subsidize Brazil more to keep the rain forest? And could Brazil be expecting more subsidy with this development?

I wouldn't worry about the rain forest since. Not only it's likely too wet and hot for the new wheat cultivars, but AFAIK deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon is driven mostly by cattle-ranching and land speculation.

Re: Brazil develops tropical wheat and predicts self-sufficiency in 5 years

#30
post #21

This sounds amazing, but at the same time, I am concerned about the rain forest. Obviously more economically useful crops would accelerate repurposing the rain forest. Maybe the world would need to subsidize Brazil more to keep the rain forest? And could Brazil be expecting more subsidy with this development?

I'm sure some actual Brazilians will comment since many are active on HN. I remember being asked in elementary school to help "buy a piece of the Amazon to stop it from being cut down". I mentioned this years later to some Brazilian friends, and they found it amazing, saying first that it almost certainly wasn't a specific plot of land, and second that enforcement of property rights and anti-poaching laws in spread-o…

At the level of randoms with chainsaws, my first thought is to treat it as a drug production problem. Treat chainsaws like methamphetamine precursors.
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