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Workers’ Pay Globally Hasn’t Kept Up with Inflation

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Re: Workers’ Pay Globally Hasn’t Kept Up with Inflation

#51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Stop spreading this propaganda This isn't propaganda - it's econ 101. Read any intro econ textbook and all this is completely expected, historically backed up by many events for centuries in hundreds of countries. There's no propaganda. M1 money (a common measure of the money supply) went from around 4 trillion to over 16 trillion in a matter of months during the pandemic [1] as a result of the govt adding trillions…

k let's assume that's the case, what would you propose as the solution to mop up the 12 trillion in excess M1?

Nothing - you let it run it's course while mitigating inflation with Fed actions. Money will rescale as it's always done, and people will go on their way (as they're doing right now).

This is how it's been done the world over, and it works pretty well, despite pop articles creating more panic than is warranted. Money has been added in the past to smooth out the 18th and 19th century boom and bust cycles, and it has worked extremely well compared to past pain.

Every country on the planet has chosen central banking since the evidence it's better than the alternatives has been overwhelming for almost a century.

Re: Workers’ Pay Globally Hasn’t Kept Up with Inflation

#52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Americans liquidated more than $1 trillion of “excess” savings in 2022, eliminating more than half of the surplus accumulated since the pandemic began. Sounds like the problem is solving itself then?

This is not "solving itself"... the Fed has hiked rates 5% and is still going. History shows there’s likely going to be a severe recession at the end of this

Yet two huge indictors of a looming recession are completely opposite end of what happens in a recession: unemployment at 50 year low and consumer spending is at an all time high.

Re: Workers’ Pay Globally Hasn’t Kept Up with Inflation

#53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not "solving itself"... the Fed has hiked rates 5% and is still going. History shows there’s likely going to be a severe recession at the end of this

Yet two huge indictors of a looming recession are completely opposite end of what happens in a recession: unemployment at 50 year low and consumer spending is at an all time high.

Look at unemployment in 2007, or before any major recession.

Its almost always quite low, which is the reason inflation is high and the Fed has to throw the economy into recession.

Low unemployment is a recession precursor, not the other way around. Very clear from the data

Re: Workers’ Pay Globally Hasn’t Kept Up with Inflation

#54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yet two huge indictors of a looming recession are completely opposite end of what happens in a recession: unemployment at 50 year low and consumer spending is at an all time high.

Look at unemployment in 2007, or before any major recession. Its almost always quite low, which is the reason inflation is high and the Fed has to throw the economy into recession. Low unemployment is a recession precursor, not the other way around. Very clear from the data

Every recession in over 70 years has seen a rise in unemployment before the recession started 1, shaded blocs are recessions]. So far unemployment is still trending down. And historically the length of time between recessions is quite varied.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

Re: Workers’ Pay Globally Hasn’t Kept Up with Inflation

#55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look at unemployment in 2007, or before any major recession. Its almost always quite low, which is the reason inflation is high and the Fed has to throw the economy into recession. Low unemployment is a recession precursor, not the other way around. Very clear from the data

Every recession in over 70 years has seen a rise in unemployment before the recession started 1, shaded blocs are recessions]. So far unemployment is still trending down. And historically the length of time between recessions is quite varied. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

Yes, unemployment is low and then rises.

Show me on this chart where unemployment goes low and stays low for an extended period? It has never happened.

Recession dynamics in relation to unemployment are well understood. Low unemployment as a driver of inflation is well understood. Fed reaction function in relation to inflation is well understood. The consequence of higher unemployment as a result of higher real rates is well understood

Only immaculate disinflation can prevent a recession at this point. If fed has to induce it, a recession is all but guaranteed

Re: Workers’ Pay Globally Hasn’t Kept Up with Inflation

#56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look at unemployment in 2007, or before any major recession. Its almost always quite low, which is the reason inflation is high and the Fed has to throw the economy into recession. Low unemployment is a recession precursor, not the other way around. Very clear from the data

Every recession in over 70 years has seen a rise in unemployment before the recession started 1, shaded blocs are recessions]. So far unemployment is still trending down. And historically the length of time between recessions is quite varied. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

Looks like the data matches the history.

Where as soon as each official recession has been deemed to occur in retrospect according to today's terms, then unemployment shoots up since so many people are kicked out.

As we have seen.

Re: Workers’ Pay Globally Hasn’t Kept Up with Inflation

#57

>Workers’ Pay Globally Hasn’t Kept Up with Inflation This is by design.

Yet wages generally do rise against inflation, otherwise we'd be as poor as we were in 1600, so this "by design" must not be true...... https://www.visualizingeconomics.com/blog/2008/05/04/average...

I would estimate in 1600 there were trades like bricklayers or wheelwrights who earned multiples of the average income, but comparable work today, even with overtime, is average or less. It didn't get that way overnight, one generation gives way to another, as in the graph.

For example there were far different people enjoying the peaks to the right of Bill Clinton than there were suffering the downturns beforehand, which continued for so many. So the adjacent data there actually comes from two different places but it's the best generic income statistic we have.

Looks like the professor has done a realistic job in his own way of rationalizing some moving targets through history and coming up with some figures that may be about as comparable as they can be over the decades. I can only imagine it took a lot of math to visualize this as meaningfully as it is.

But remember it's the well-heeled people who bring the average up disproportionately more as the income disparity between high & low widens over the decades.

If you consider a time when a dollar had been an ounce of silver like forever (about the left half of the chart), then made it through the Nixon & Reagan Recessions, you would have seen how the average person (not the average income) was too devastated to participate in very much of the upticks since those crushing years.

But still subject to downticks being amplified to push them surely below the trough every time since. As the middle class, even the upper-middle class, had their wealth systematically removed by predatory forces that caused even more of a downward spiral in the average and below-average earners.

Often dipping well beyond the belt-tightening of the '80's, while the well-to-do maintained their compensation during the same adversity, not much differently than they're doing now by declaring higher dividends. Keeping the high-rollers in position to exclusively benefit when it does turn around, leaving everyone else further behind each time.

And in terms of "per Tax Unit", the left 2/3 of the graph is with one earner, but after that it's two different breadwinners for the most part.

Even though these are legitimate statistics, and look as similarly adjusted for inflation as other experts, it can be definitely confirmed that average income alone, no matter how well adjusted, is not a very accurate indicator of how the income of the non-exceptional population has been devastated by inflation worse than average. From what we know now, or at least the way it appears. If they could only have half of their dollars paid to them in half ounces of silver, they'd surely be a lot better off, but probably still not where it should have been, before all these additional means of devaluing the currency became possible.

Remember the way Bill Clinton was like when he started campaigning, it was the first contingent of overtime workers to have worked 20 years bringing in two incomes without getting ahead at all, compared to their fathers who had accomplished way more in their 20 years on one income.

And there were even more younger people who recognized that the promise of employment just wasn't what it used to be, since at the time it looked more hopeless than ever going into the future.

So one of his campaign promises was to grant $5000 to any American who would start their own business, employment hadn't been much hope for quite some time.

By design you were supposed to get an ounce of silver for each dollar you worked for.

That design changed long ago.

Re: Workers’ Pay Globally Hasn’t Kept Up with Inflation

#58
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you put on pants in the morning?

My comment was facetious satire illustrating that productivity increases, not cartels, are the key to rising wages. I'm sorry it was difficult to understand.

In a place like SV what percentage of truckers have been laid off compared to software people?

How many are really increasing productivity in the long run anyway?

When you think about it, their own employers must be satisfied with the lower productivity of a smaller staff or they wouldn't be kicking people out.

Edit: Not my downvote. Corrective upvote actually.

Re: Workers’ Pay Globally Hasn’t Kept Up with Inflation

#59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every recession in over 70 years has seen a rise in unemployment before the recession started 1, shaded blocs are recessions]. So far unemployment is still trending down. And historically the length of time between recessions is quite varied. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

Yes, unemployment is low and then rises. Show me on this chart where unemployment goes low and stays low for an extended period? It has never happened. Recession dynamics in relation to unemployment are well understood. Low unemployment as a driver of inflation is well understood. Fed reaction function in relation to inflation is well understood. The consequence of higher unemployment as a result of higher real rates…

>Show me on this chart where unemployment goes low and stays low for an extended period? It has never happened.

Show where on the chart it stays flat for long period of time.

You're just moving goalposts at this point.

The fact is, and is demonstrated by that chart, that unemployment tends downwards between recessions, then jumps during them. And each recession had an uptick before the recession. The down trend length is not at all indicative of impending recession from that chart. And, as I pointed out to begin with, the current unemployment is not having that uptick. Many of the upticks took over a year from uptick start to recession. And there's ample upticks more than 5 years before the next recession. So uptick does not imply recession, but lack of uptick implies no recession soon. There is not a single example among the 12 recessions in that data (and, if you look at other country data, the same pattern appears).

My original point is correct: there is yet no sign in the unemployment data of impending recession, no matter how much you seem to want one, so much so you make incorrect claims about the data without actually checking the data.

>Recession dynamics in relation to unemployment are well understood. Low unemployment as a driver of inflation is well understood. Fed reaction function in relation to inflation is well understood. The consequence of higher unemployment as a result of higher real rates is well understood

Those are partially understood - if there were such a causal or even empirical link from one to the other we'd not need the NBER to analyze macro variables to decide on recessions. This is not physics - there is a lot more uncertainty, and some factors move over time as different factor weights change (and even political will to do things). That there is no simple way to look at all the variables you mention and claim "impending recession!" with any certainty is the most salient fact of all.

And, as I pointed out, unemployment is not at this moment pointing to immediate recession, unless you have a never before seen relation between them.

Re: Workers’ Pay Globally Hasn’t Kept Up with Inflation

#60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every recession in over 70 years has seen a rise in unemployment before the recession started 1, shaded blocs are recessions]. So far unemployment is still trending down. And historically the length of time between recessions is quite varied. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

Looks like the data matches the history. Where as soon as each official recession has been deemed to occur in retrospect according to today's terms, then unemployment shoots up since so many people are kicked out. As we have seen.

>has been deemed to occur in retrospect according to today's terms

Yes, that graph shows the "retrospect" recession start, and every one is after unemployment rises. But not every rise in unemployment yields a recession.

Currently there is not a rise in unemployment.

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