Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns • Hacker News Board

Re: Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns

#51

Post by TameAntelope » Wed, Jul 13, 2022, 3:45 PM UTC

jonathan-adly wrote: post #17

The problem with these kind of charts is the implicit message that history is the future. America have been on the dominant financial and militaristic force in the world for the last century and its equities have reflected that strength. Would it continue to be the same for the next century? Who knows! Ray Dalio and the Maxis think otherwise. Good work OP though!

> Portfolio emphasizing U.S. and foreign large- and mid-capitalization value stocks.

VFINX is not composed exclusively of US stocks.

Re: Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns

#52

Post by ezekg » Wed, Jul 13, 2022, 3:45 PM UTC

workah0lic wrote: post #49

I used to calculate this manually whenever I thought about the reality, and whenever wondering if I can retire. This is really cool. One comment though is the mass of company names at the bottom is illegible so I would think a search box + top 20 list would be better

> One comment though is the mass of company names at the bottom is illegible so I would think a search box + top 20 list would be better

Probably for SEO. :)

Re: Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns

#53

Post by compumike » Wed, Jul 13, 2022, 3:47 PM UTC

lostmsu wrote: post #47

No cryptos?

You can use ETFs that hold those assets, for example: https://totalrealreturns.com/s/GBTC,ETHE

Re: Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns

#54

Post by chordalkeyboard » Wed, Jul 13, 2022, 3:53 PM UTC

whatshisface wrote: post #38

roenxi wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you want an answer to your original question or do you want to try and argue that the stock market and currency move inversely? Because if you want an answer, you aren't making changes to the example that will help you understand. You're introducing confusing factors that are not needed. The original example gave a neat little illustration of how wealth-as-measured can drop without money disappearing. Don't bring…

My original question was how wealth-as-measured could disappear when dollars were included, not how demand for stocks could shift to demand for dollars. In a market with one good, the value of a dollar must move inversely with the value of the good (no examples needed, it's mathematically tautological) - and that is not what we see happening on the linked page. That's what my question is.

> In a market with one good, the value of a dollar must move inversely with the value of the good (no examples needed, it's mathematically tautological)

this is incorrect

Re: Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns

#55

Post by whatshisface » Wed, Jul 13, 2022, 3:54 PM UTC

mrkstu wrote: post #43

whatshisface wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When they sell they're wanting money, an equal amount of money to the stock they're selling. That should make the dollar go up by the amount the stock went down. (I don't really believe this, because it clearly does not describe the chart, but it makes sense and I want to understand why it doesn't work like that.)

Because money is a notational bookkeeping exercise at this point in time and has been since the dollar went off the gold standard. It can't be affected by demand for things as small as stocks, but only its relative demand to other notational currencies.

The total US stock market cap is $45T[1] and M2 is $20T[2]. Are you sure currency prices can't be influenced by the stock market?

[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1277195/nyse-nasdaq-comp... [2] https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/default.h...

Re: Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns

#56

Post by loeg » Wed, Jul 13, 2022, 3:54 PM UTC

TameAntelope wrote: post #51

jonathan-adly wrote: post #17

The problem with these kind of charts is the implicit message that history is the future. America have been on the dominant financial and militaristic force in the world for the last century and its equities have reflected that strength. Would it continue to be the same for the next century? Who knows! Ray Dalio and the Maxis think otherwise. Good work OP though!

> Portfolio emphasizing U.S. and foreign large- and mid-capitalization value stocks. VFINX is not composed exclusively of US stocks.

It’s an S&P500 fund; that is composed (exclusively) of large cap US stocks.

Re: Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns

#57

Post by compumike » Wed, Jul 13, 2022, 3:54 PM UTC

ezekg wrote: post #52

workah0lic wrote: post #49

I used to calculate this manually whenever I thought about the reality, and whenever wondering if I can retire. This is really cool. One comment though is the mass of company names at the bottom is illegible so I would think a search box + top 20 list would be better

> One comment though is the mass of company names at the bottom is illegible so I would think a search box + top 20 list would be better Probably for SEO. :)

I'd been planning to add an autocomplete symbol search box. I ran out of time because I knew the new CPI data was being released this morning. I wanted to launch the site today, so last night at 3am ET I just added a big list of symbols. But yeah might be good for SEO too :)

Re: Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns

#58

Post by nly » Wed, Jul 13, 2022, 3:57 PM UTC

peterisza wrote: post #28

whatshisface wrote: post #5

How can everything go down at once, doesn't the money have to go somewhere? Best hypotheses so far along with how to test them: 1. Perhaps the parts of the CPI that companies in the stock market can produce are being outpaced by the components that are not produced, like real estate, and so can't contribute to an increase in share prices. (How to check: Look up changes in the CPI components, which are detailed in the…

Money doesn't go into the stock market. If you buy a stock from me today, I can use the exact same money to buy bread tomorrow. That money keeps circulating in the economy, it doesn't go into or out of the stock market.

Exactly. The current stock price is just the last price it traded at, or some measure of supposed liquidity or depth in the market at some price. That liquidity just exists as unfilled orders or quotes on the order book on an exchange and can vanish in an instant.

The other thing is that buying stock for a company A isn't the same as "investing in" company A, since company A doesn't get your money...it's a secondary market!

As buffet says, the stock market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long-term.

Re: Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns

#59

Post by whatshisface » Wed, Jul 13, 2022, 3:57 PM UTC

chordalkeyboard wrote: post #54

whatshisface wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My original question was how wealth-as-measured could disappear when dollars were included, not how demand for stocks could shift to demand for dollars. In a market with one good, the value of a dollar must move inversely with the value of the good (no examples needed, it's mathematically tautological) - and that is not what we see happening on the linked page. That's what my question is.

> In a market with one good, the value of a dollar must move inversely with the value of the good (no examples needed, it's mathematically tautological) this is incorrect

I mean the value of the dollar as measured by the CPI.

Re: Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns

#60

Post by olalonde » Wed, Jul 13, 2022, 3:57 PM UTC

Suggestion: it would be nice to have a chart like the first one but where relative changes (%) in value are plotted... That would make it easier to use a linear Y axis instead of a logarithmic one (which can be hard to interpret).