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The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

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Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#51

Post by Barrera »

KaiserPro wrote: post #34

THe problem with this prediction is that there is an astronomical amount of money tied up in global trade. To stop that would be incredibly disruptive. Thats not to say it won't happen (history has plenty of examples. WWI is a recent one). However for the "end of shipping" to happen we need those vested interests to stop being interested in literal trillions of dollars worth of trade. I can see a few scenarios where…

The point Zeihan makes is that world trade as we know it a recent invention. It exists purely as a result of the US commitment to protect trade from piracy around the world. Prior to that, the system was one of isolated empires each protecting their own routes.

As the US is largely self-sufficient in energy and will likely start becoming self-sufficient in a great many things, it needs the rest of the world less and less.

Those shipping lines, which mainly benefit the rest of the world, start to look like an expensive relic with each passing year.

All it takes for an end of shipping is for the US to stop protecting shipping lines which mainly benefit foreign governments.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#52

Post by photochemsyn »

I can definitely buy the argument that deglobalization is going to hit a lot of sectors that are increasingly viewed by domestic populations as 'critical' - things like food, medicine, energy, metals, and even computer chips. The pandemic exposed the fragility of global supply chains, just-in-time-manufacturing, and awareness of the results of 40 years of full-on neoliberal globalization policy (see The Rust Belt flipping for Trump in 2016 as evidence of this trend).

I think this is a very healthy development, because trade in goods is best thought of as a way for different countries to benefit from surplus production. There have been historical exceptions like the New World plantation economies set up to supply Europe with rum and sugar, Brazil's rubber plantations, resource extaction in the Congo, etc. but none of these resulted in what you'd call healthy economic development.

China may have the goal of becoming 'the next American Empire' but a more rational view is that the Age of Empires is quickly drawing to a close and there won't be any inheritors of the crown at all.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#53

Post by Barrera »

giorgosts wrote: post #15

US-centric approach. How about if China decides to fill the power vacuum that the isolationist US leaves. How about if eg. COSCO buys out the port operators around the globe. How about if they decide to protect their shipping routes with their military so that they carry on with providing goods to the globe. Globalization is still in the best interests of China, even if the US decides to abandon it.

> How about if China decides to fill the power vacuum that the isolationist US leaves.

Zeihan argues that this is impossible on demographic grounds. The after-effects of the One Child Policy and the mass migration from farms to cities ensures a lack of soldiers, a greying population, and economic/military decline. Throw in Xi's unprecedented cult of personality that prevents anyone reporting bad news as the icing on the cake.

The US has nothing to fear from China, so Zeihan says.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#54

Post by AnimalMuppet »

drcongo wrote: post #6

There's an incredibly important "the" missing from this submission title entirely changing the meaning. edit: It's actually missing from the page title on TFA too. Baffling.

I think it's like this: "The end of the world" is not an event, it's a process. That process is just beginning. We're nowhere near "the end of the end".

At least, that's what I think it's trying to say.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#55

Post by ticklemyelmo »

hprotagonist wrote: post #5
nostrademons wrote: post #2

Interesting to combine this line of thinking with the transition from nation-states to market-states: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1744057060106386... The power vacuum that's arisen from populism & isolationism is about to create a gigantic untapped market for firms that provide the services of a state - defense, dispute resolution, and currency - for a fee, to gigantic multinational corporations. At t…

May i recommend Mr. Lee’s Greater Hong Kong?

Almost worth it to be able to see a Rat Thing in action. Very briefly.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#56

Post by vbezhenar »

BatFastard wrote: post #37
walleeee wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Might we see the nation-state get replaced by a web of competing mercenaries, each of which effectively serves as a protection racket for their customers? How do you envision the deprecation of the nuclear-armed nation state unfolding? The USSR had a unipolar world outside to stabilize and manage its disintegration. How is this accomplished in a multipolar context, with tensions inflamed by intensifying scarcity, c…

I would imagine that this would first manifest itself in smaller countries. For example Mali employs the Wagner group out of Russia as a supplement for its Army. And I believe they are used by other countries as well. I don't see nuclear-armed nations using private companies, but possibly being the source of troops and technology. Really I don't see U.S. citizens joining mercenary groups, quality of life is too good.…

US mercenaries: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackwater_(company)

One issue with mercenaries is that they're not subject to military laws and will be hang if captured. Like it happens with few american citizens captured in Ukraine by DNR.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#57

Post by spywaregorilla »

andrewclunn wrote: post #42
Barrera wrote: post #26

Haven't read the book, but for those who don't know who Zeihan is, his work follows two threads of post-WWII history: 1. Deglobalization; and 2. Depopulation The article focuses mostly on deglobalization, but depopulation is in the horse pulling the cart. Many are familiar with the deglobalization idea from the last US presidential administration. The current administration kept those tariffs, and abided by the previ…

> and abided by the previous commitment to exit Afghanistan. Ummm, what? Biden moved the date for withdrawal back, to make it coincide with a 9/11 anniversary. Then, seeing that the US would just arbitrarily change treaties, the Taliban launched an assault and reconquered the country. I get that historical revisionism is popular with political partisans, but usually you wait until goldfish have forgotten the details…

Are you trying to suggest the taliban wouldn't have launched an assault if the date wasn't moved and the US pulled out? I feel your desire to throw a political punch has utterly blinded you here.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#58

Post by macintux »

andrewclunn wrote: post #42
Barrera wrote: post #26

Haven't read the book, but for those who don't know who Zeihan is, his work follows two threads of post-WWII history: 1. Deglobalization; and 2. Depopulation The article focuses mostly on deglobalization, but depopulation is in the horse pulling the cart. Many are familiar with the deglobalization idea from the last US presidential administration. The current administration kept those tariffs, and abided by the previ…

> and abided by the previous commitment to exit Afghanistan. Ummm, what? Biden moved the date for withdrawal back, to make it coincide with a 9/11 anniversary. Then, seeing that the US would just arbitrarily change treaties, the Taliban launched an assault and reconquered the country. I get that historical revisionism is popular with political partisans, but usually you wait until goldfish have forgotten the details…

“Biden made the Taliban conquer Afghanistan” is as believable as “Biden made Putin invade Ukraine”.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#59

Post by smt88 »

yrgulation wrote: post #41
Barrera wrote: post #26

Haven't read the book, but for those who don't know who Zeihan is, his work follows two threads of post-WWII history: 1. Deglobalization; and 2. Depopulation The article focuses mostly on deglobalization, but depopulation is in the horse pulling the cart. Many are familiar with the deglobalization idea from the last US presidential administration. The current administration kept those tariffs, and abided by the previ…

> Their populations will shrink with mathematical certainty. Yeah you know why? Because both parents sitting in offices 8 hours a day have no means of looking after their kids. And a mother giving birth needs to return to work in a few months time, else she there's no pay. Oh and neither parent can give up work to raise these future adults because living expenses are too high. I don't know why everyone is so surprise…

This is a popular theory on reddit, but it's not true. Birth rates are extremely low even in countries that paid parents to stay at home with kids and generally have good work culture.

You would also expect birth rates to be lowest among people working 2-3 low-wage jobs, which is also not true.

As financial stability and safety increase, birth rates go down. That's the only common driver of it.

Historically, children were sources of unpaid labor. They worked (either at the family business or outside the job), raised younger siblings, and took care of elderly parents.

In short, children were (and sometimes are) a social safety net. What happens in societies that try to eliminate poverty, take care of the elderly, and ban child labor? A lower birth rate.

Low birth rates are not a problem (and reflect enormous amounts of social progress). We just need to solve the Ponzi scheme of retirement and elder care, which I think is doable with automation.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#60

Post by bombcar »

nostrademons wrote: post #2

Interesting to combine this line of thinking with the transition from nation-states to market-states: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1744057060106386... The power vacuum that's arisen from populism & isolationism is about to create a gigantic untapped market for firms that provide the services of a state - defense, dispute resolution, and currency - for a fee, to gigantic multinational corporations. At t…

The modern Westphalian nation-state may just be an accident of history, eventually replaced by other mechanisms.

Arguably it already has begun; tech monopolies are starting to provide "government-like" rules and enforcement.

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