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The Russians Fleeing Putin's Wartime Crackdown

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Re: The Russians Fleeing Putin's Wartime Crackdown

#51

Post by ChuckNorris89 »

Viliam1234 wrote: post #46
bergie wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For somebody who doesn’t “care a single bit about money” he certainly has gathered a significant amount of material wealth for himself, his mistresses, etc. But then again, since you’re taking his ridiculous casus belli scribblings at a face value, there’s little I can do to convince you.

Yeah. "He now has goals other than money (because he already has all the money he could possibly need)" makes sense. "He never cared about money" is incompatible with reality. Similarly, it makes sense that he would selfishly prefer to be historically remembered as the guy who unified Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, rather than the most successful thief after the fall of communism. The citizens of Ukraine (and probably…

>The citizens of Ukraine (and probably also Belarus) are not happy about it

The citizens of Belarus have way less freedom of speech than even Russia, let alone Ukraine that's relatively free since 2014.

Russia has had, until recently, some forms of freedom of speech, at least on paper, while Belarus has none of that, not even on paper.

Putin wishes he had the authoritarian powers Lukashenko has in Belarus where he's been the sole dictator for the past 26 years.

Putin is basically a dictator but still has to go through a bunch of red tape to stay in power and pretend he's there though democratic elections and what not, while Lukashenko doesn't need to do any of that BS in Belarus, he's an absolute savage who doesn't even believe COVID is real and says "being a dictator is fine since it's better than being a homosexual".

So good luck being unhappy in Belarus and doing something about it.

Re: The Russians Fleeing Putin's Wartime Crackdown

#52

Post by overkalix »

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #38
overkalix wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I might very well be mistaken, but this war and Russia's belligerence during the last 10 years never seemed to me a matter of ambition and territorial expansion, but rather desperation. Putin is 70, and his death will certainly plunge Russia into a period of turmoil. It doesn't matter if a successor is anointed by big P himself. The democratic opposition will see it as an opportunity for reform. The political and mil…

>The last time Russians found themselves in a similar position, NATO and the EU showed up at their doorstep. Baltic countries, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria... all of them joined NATO and/or EU in quick succession. NATO and the EU did not show up at their doorsteps. Baltic and Eastern European states willingly joined NATO and the EU seeking better economic opportunities than what they had under R…

The decision of those countries is perfectly legitimate (and in hindsight a very good one, seeing how Putin instrumentalizes Russian minorities).

But my point is, before the soviet collapse Russia didn't have a lot of shared borders with NATO countries. Now they do. If Ukraine, Moldova (who knows, maybe one day Belarus) end up joining NATO or the EU, this will considerably hinder their power projection capabilities. Expanding on McCain's analogy, Russia is a sketchy gas station where you can hire bruisers.

Re: The Russians Fleeing Putin's Wartime Crackdown

#53

Post by overkalix »

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #50
overkalix wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I might very well be mistaken, but this war and Russia's belligerence during the last 10 years never seemed to me a matter of ambition and territorial expansion, but rather desperation. Putin is 70, and his death will certainly plunge Russia into a period of turmoil. It doesn't matter if a successor is anointed by big P himself. The democratic opposition will see it as an opportunity for reform. The political and mil…

> Putin is 70, and his death will certainly plunge Russia into a period of turmoil. As if Russia is currently a bastion of stability. It's only stable now because everyone is afraid of being gulaged if they speak up, similar to a lighter version of the purge in the Stalin days.

Well, now you're just being obtuse. Putin just got into an incredibly expensive war, and protests are marginal at best. This is achieved through repression and violence, but if you don't think that is stability, you're deluded.

Re: The Russians Fleeing Putin's Wartime Crackdown

#54

Post by hackerfromthefu »

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #17
imtringued wrote: post #5

There is no way this war is fought for the benefit of Russia as a whole, not even in the form of a neo soviet union. Russia isn't threatened directly by the west, nuclear weapons are a sufficient deterrent and Europe is a loyal customer of coal, gas and oil. If nuclear weapons grant super power status amongst nations, then Russia is doing everything in its power to reduce its ability to maintain its current nuclear c…

>I sure hope Putin is an evil genius because if he isn't I can only say "Say goodbye to your super power status, Russia, and enjoy your hard fought international insignificance!" I never understood what Putin's end game was here with this war, what can he earn extra of what he doesn't already have? He's already one of the world's richest men and he's already quite old. Couldn't he just like take his insane wealth and…

Could be a geopolitical move to gain resources, I've read some analysis that Russia's strength is currently peaking and will decline, and the territory that has been captured in Ukraine has coastal land around newly discovered gas fields.

If that's the case I doubt that it would have been done if the current outcome was known in advance.

Re: The Russians Fleeing Putin's Wartime Crackdown

#55

Post by pvg »

zozbot234 wrote: post #34
lolinder wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's one thing to say "I recognize that individual Russians are not at fault, but in the middle of a total war civilians inevitably get caught in the crossfire. At least with these economic weapons no one is getting killed." It's another to say "you are all at fault, even if indirectly, and so you all deserve to be punished." That second comment would violate at least "be kind" and "comments should get more thoughtfu…

Modern international law is based on the acknowledgement of popular sovereignty, which has an unavoidable "collective" dimension. What's wrong with making the argument that, like most everything else, sovereignty comes with rights but also responsibilities when the country that one's "sovereign" on starts engaging in bad behavior towards others? Average Germans have had to apologize and be responsible "collectively",…

For the purposes of what kind of comments are acceptable on HN, the HN guidelines supersede international law or your interpretation of it. Fulminating at an entire nation is pretty straightforwardly not ok.

Re: The Russians Fleeing Putin's Wartime Crackdown

#56

Post by Andrew_nenakhov »

lolinder wrote: post #7
Andrew_nenakhov wrote: post #3

It would be so much easier for any skilled worker to flee Russia if various western companies would stop virtue signalling and stop this trend of cancelling all services for Russians. By doing this they feel good, but are actually helping Putin and his criminal gang. I was ready for our criminal government to start building a Russian Firewall to hinder access to non-government propaganda for Russian Citizens, but I w…

I'm sorry that this is the way that it is, but do note that the real reason for most companies doing this has less to do with "punishing" anyone and more to do with practical concerns like "how do we get paid?" and "how do we make sure we don't accidentally violate sanctions?" Russia likely represents a small enough fraction of most companies' users that it's cheaper to just stop doing business there than to keep adj…

There are ways to pay for services. With up to 50% additional expenses, but it is possible.

I also did some research, and it seems that services without KYC obligations so not need to comply with the sanction restrictions imposed on specific persons, so this excuse looks to be invalid for services like Figma.

(And in the future I wouldn't trust any SaaS that unilaterally cuts off a whole group of customers by their nationality)

Re: The Russians Fleeing Putin's Wartime Crackdown

#57

Post by aPoCoMiLogin »

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #17
imtringued wrote: post #5

There is no way this war is fought for the benefit of Russia as a whole, not even in the form of a neo soviet union. Russia isn't threatened directly by the west, nuclear weapons are a sufficient deterrent and Europe is a loyal customer of coal, gas and oil. If nuclear weapons grant super power status amongst nations, then Russia is doing everything in its power to reduce its ability to maintain its current nuclear c…

>I sure hope Putin is an evil genius because if he isn't I can only say "Say goodbye to your super power status, Russia, and enjoy your hard fought international insignificance!" I never understood what Putin's end game was here with this war, what can he earn extra of what he doesn't already have? He's already one of the world's richest men and he's already quite old. Couldn't he just like take his insane wealth and…

the endgame was money: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If61baWF4GE

Re: The Russians Fleeing Putin's Wartime Crackdown

#58

Post by Andrew_nenakhov »

eikeegi wrote: post #44
Andrew_nenakhov wrote: post #3

It would be so much easier for any skilled worker to flee Russia if various western companies would stop virtue signalling and stop this trend of cancelling all services for Russians. By doing this they feel good, but are actually helping Putin and his criminal gang. I was ready for our criminal government to start building a Russian Firewall to hinder access to non-government propaganda for Russian Citizens, but I w…

Russians have had 20 odd years to do something about their government. I would argue that if you are a citizen of Russia, you are the Putin ally here by letting things go so bad. I understand that NOW it is a lot harder to reform the system or bring about any positive changes. This ship has probably sailed. The Russian people are now reaping what they perhaps not sowed, but have ALLOWED to grow. You are really not th…

I think that instead of condemning Russians for allowing Putin's regime to grow, an Estonian like you should be a little grateful that there were enough democracy-leaning Russians in 1980s who had weakened the soviet empire so that the other republics could slip away and have their chance of freedom. Some took it, like Baltic states, some turned into classical sultanates, some remain a battleground. The Russians, however, had to bear with all the KGB apparatus which remained firm in its place, and after enduring economic hardships of the 90s were feeling they were cheated by everyone. So no wonder that an upsurge in oil prices in the early 00s helped to create a calm and positive atmosphere, where the gradual deterioration of the democracy institutions went almost unnoticed. And actually it was unnoticed not only by Russians, but by everyone else: President Buss was Putin's 'friend', Germany chancellor ended up on a Gazprom board, the Queen was visiting Russia, etc., all was nice and fluffy. And let's not forget that the real funders of Putin's aggression are buyers of his energy exports, and they do this to this very moment, on the 30 odd day of the war, even having an exemption from Swift cutoff just to pay for it! But of course UI designers can no longer have their Figma access, that would be supporting Putin's regime.

Regarding the estonian company - I don't even know why exactly Ionos sent me a discontinuation of service notice. I operate my business with a company based in Estonia - mostly to NOT pay taxes to Putin's criminal regime - and hosting was invoiced to that company, and paid with that company's funds. So how they even arrived to a conclusion that I'm a customer from russia is rather interesting.

Re: The Russians Fleeing Putin's Wartime Crackdown

#59

Post by sofixa »

pain2022 wrote: post #4
Andrew_nenakhov wrote: post #3

It would be so much easier for any skilled worker to flee Russia if various western companies would stop virtue signalling and stop this trend of cancelling all services for Russians. By doing this they feel good, but are actually helping Putin and his criminal gang. I was ready for our criminal government to start building a Russian Firewall to hinder access to non-government propaganda for Russian Citizens, but I w…

I too would like to hear a rational explanation of how Netflix and Figma cancelling services to Russians helps Ukraine

It makes the situation worse for the average Russian. Happy people (bread and circuses) don't revolt.

And yes, a revolution in Russia is basically the only way this war can end without Ukraine making serious sacrifices.

Re: The Russians Fleeing Putin's Wartime Crackdown

#60

Post by lolinder »

Andrew_nenakhov wrote: post #56
lolinder wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry that this is the way that it is, but do note that the real reason for most companies doing this has less to do with "punishing" anyone and more to do with practical concerns like "how do we get paid?" and "how do we make sure we don't accidentally violate sanctions?" Russia likely represents a small enough fraction of most companies' users that it's cheaper to just stop doing business there than to keep adj…

There are ways to pay for services. With up to 50% additional expenses, but it is possible. I also did some research, and it seems that services without KYC obligations so not need to comply with the sanction restrictions imposed on specific persons, so this excuse looks to be invalid for services like Figma. (And in the future I wouldn't trust any SaaS that unilaterally cuts off a whole group of customers by their n…

> (And in the future I wouldn't trust any SaaS that unilaterally cuts off a whole group of customers by their nationality)

Just to clarify, this is not what is happening. Figma et al are cutting off a whole group of customers by their place of residence, which is a completely different question, and one that is much less legally and ethically fraught.

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