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Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

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Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#51

Post by belval »

soperj wrote: post #21
yladiz wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we forget that Ukraine is not just Kyiv, it is slowly being swallowed up from all directions Except we haven’t forgotten, news orgs are reporting on things happening outside of Kyiv. Russia seems to have really overplayed their hand because they were barely able to take Kherson after like a week, and can’t even take bigger cities like Kharkiv, even with intense shelling. Russia may not be a paper tiger, but they su…

>Russia may not be a paper tiger, but they sure can’t do much against an enemy many times smaller than them. How long did it take for the US to take Afghanistan?

The logistics of taking a country that is thousands of miles away are very different from taking one you share a border with.

It took 47 days to take Kabul, counting from the first day the CIA agents were sent to prepare the invasion. Furthermore, the objective was to find bin Laden, not to take cities.

The war in Ukraine isn't really comparable to Afghanistan. The US mostly "softened" strategic objectives with air strikes, whereas Russia can't/won't do that in Ukraine.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#52

Post by k__ »

gremlinsinc wrote: post #24
jcadam wrote: post #13

Zelensky is starting to sound like he's open to considering some of Russia's stated terms (no pursuit of NATO membership and cession of eastern Ukraine). That doesn't sound like things are going especially well for him.

I think Zelenskyy should take: No eu/Nato membership (face it, he's months or years from qualifying anyways), and he leaves Donbask, and Crimea (for now), but does NOT agree to disband any military, and is allowed to secure his own borders. In otherwords he can still ramp up, then the west simply continues squeezing Putin and Russia for a year, or 3... then he can either go take back Crimea/Donbask regions, or perhap…

I think, they should do the exact opposite. Join EU on a quick path and call Putin's nuclear bluff.

I'm not happy about it and can't sleep right for days anymore, because I fear a nuclear escalation. But I don't want to live in a world where such a situation could happen again and again. There are many slavic countries this fascist hungers for.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#53

Post by akomtu »

Putin is dumb or desperate (maybe trying to score a quick victory because of some more pressing matters). All he needed to do is to assemble a big enough chunk of his army at the borders, do some maneuvers from time to time, pepper it with threatening rhetoric to keep everyone stressed, but never attack. This "psychological siege" would tank the economy of Ukraine and he could demand progressively bigger concessions. The west would've only expressed a "strong disapproval", but ignored the situation otherwise.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#54

Post by bpodgursky »

jcadam wrote: post #13

Zelensky is starting to sound like he's open to considering some of Russia's stated terms (no pursuit of NATO membership and cession of eastern Ukraine). That doesn't sound like things are going especially well for him.

I mean, this outcome would be pretty close to the status quo belle ante. It doesn't feel like a L for Ukraine.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#55

Post by riku_iki »

deutschew wrote: post #14
nwiswell wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. The terrain for Ukranian insurgents will simply be civilians. How can you tell who is going to shoot you in the back when you turn around? Unfortunately, we live in a new age and China has perfected facial recognition software, which they will probably have no scruples about providing to Russia. I'm not sure a crowd provides the same kind of anonymity that it once did.

The uncomfortable truth is that civilians will be used as shields by insurgency as it always has. We are starting to see some of this right now (and I'm not 100% certain) but for instance the alleged Azov battalion operating near DNR/LNR area is said to be not allowing citizens to leave the city. There are footages going around them turning (you can tell from the patches they wear) citizens away from checkpoints as t…

> There are footages going around them turning (you can tell from the patches they wear) citizens away from checkpoints as they try to leave.

Another side of the story is that Ukrainians claim they couldn't reach agreement of ceasing fire and humanitarian corridors with Russians.

I believe people are leaving Kharkov and Kiev relatively freely.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#56

Post by usaphp »

2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote: post #49
rdtwo wrote: post #11

Do people put money on this because 4:1 odds are pretty good. If definition of fall is a mission accomplished type photo op I’d take those odds. If it’s prolonged stable holding then I probably would not

The insurgency in Iraq was also a minority- most supported the US. I like to imagine that Russia will have a much more difficult time in Ukraine where they are almost universally despised.

> The insurgency in Iraq was also a minority- most supported the US

Russians also think that most Ukrainians support Russia, it doesn't mean it's true. Same with believes that most Iraqis supported US.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#57

Post by beepbooptheory »

I just have no confidence that we can really know anything for sure one way or another. The media so far (in the West) ranges from tangibly self-conscious to overt propaganda, much of which is proven false a day later. There is no harm in this in itself, propaganda is as much part of the war as any other part, I get that, but I at this point I wouldn't be surprised that Russia is doing much better than what is being reported, or the opposite. I don't know, this is not a bet I would take.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#58

Post by WJW »

nxm wrote: post #39
tablespoon wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Russia will take control of all or most nuclear power plants and other infrastructure. At which point it's only a matter of time until the people of Ukraine will surrender with no water or electricity. I doubt Ukraine will surrender as long as it can supply its forces with food, drinking water, and ammo. > As it stands the West can do nothing. The West can do a lot of things that it chooses not to do out of fear .…

Please elaborate on what else the West can do? No fly-zone is a non-starter

Supplying the Ukrainians with food, water and weapons is a good start. Supplying them early warnings about troop movements from satellite imagery and cracked Russian communications would be a second, and it would be very deniable to boot. Sanctions will reduce the ability of the Russians to keep up the offensive in the mid-term, and there is indirect pressure to be exerted via the Chinese (who are miffed at the lack of warning they got from "close friend" Putin about his plans) and other diplomatic means. And finally there are of course all sorts of black ops you can do in an active warzone, similar to how Russia deployed "little green men" in Donetsk and Luhansk in 2014.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#59

Post by deutschew »

yladiz wrote: post #8
deutschew wrote: post #4

how much of this was contributed to banning all reporting from the Russian side of things? right now the atmosphere is like if you even remotely suggest that Russia is actually making slow progress despite losses you are viewed as supporting Russia! Yet what the fixation on Kyiv is doing is it's pulling resources away from the south and Donentsk/Lukansk area where the Ukraine army is in real danger of being completel…

> we forget that Ukraine is not just Kyiv, it is slowly being swallowed up from all directions Except we haven’t forgotten, news orgs are reporting on things happening outside of Kyiv. Russia seems to have really overplayed their hand because they were barely able to take Kherson after like a week, and can’t even take bigger cities like Kharkiv, even with intense shelling. Russia may not be a paper tiger, but they su…

> they sure can’t do much against an enemy many times smaller than them.

Neither could the US.

Another factor here is that Ukraine isn't Afghanistan or Vietnam where natural barriers offer chance for insurgency to hide out, regroup.

Russia here can absolutely level cities and buildings and it is impossible to construct underground tunnels in flat lands known for its ability to soak up water (the tunnels would not be structurally safe), and it is far too late now in this stage of the war.

An incompetent large army vs a competent large army makes little difference when the fighting environment is against the defenders (no mountains or jungles to hide out in).

The best chance at insurgency would be to start digging but again the soil in Ukraine makes this a challenge, my prediction is that we could see something similar to what Hamas is doing in Palestine in the form of human shields, swaying public media through casualties, urban warfare at best but unlike IDF which does to a certain degree exercise in minimization of collateral damage (ex. calling occupants in the apartment building to evacuate before bombing Hamas launching rockets) where as Putin/RF has zero qualms about collateral damage.

The Western sanctions have only esclated tensions, have emboldened Putin even more, as they've given him nothing to lose. When you corner a wild animal like Putin you will get bitten.

There's just no way out for him except to escalate from what I can see since Ukraine has rejected giving up DNR/LNR/Crimea. Neither side is willing to budge so this will simply continue to lead to human suffering on both sides.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#60

Post by twblalock »

InTheArena wrote: post #36

Armies have momentum. Germany almost lost in 1941 when Barbarossa failed. Hitler managed to keep his armies from disintegrating, but it was a near thing. Japan's armies went far further then they had any right too in the same period, because of the perception of invincibility, higher morale, and everyone underestimating them for racial reasons. It's very clear that the Russians badly screwed up their logistics chain…

The Russian government knew there would be sanctions no matter what happened. They had already decided to accept those even in the event of victory.

They aren't in a no-win scenario either. Kyiv cannot hold out forever. The Russians have an overwhelming numeric advantage and they can simply wait out the defenders, using that time to fix their supply lines.

It's tempting to exaggerate a Russian setback into a total collapse or a defeat. That's wishful thinking.

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