Do people put money on this because 4:1 odds are pretty good. If definition of fall is a mission accomplished type photo op I’d take those odds. If it’s prolonged stable holding then I probably would not
Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
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Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
#12how much of this was contributed to banning all reporting from the Russian side of things? right now the atmosphere is like if you even remotely suggest that Russia is actually making slow progress despite losses you are viewed as supporting Russia! Yet what the fixation on Kyiv is doing is it's pulling resources away from the south and Donentsk/Lukansk area where the Ukraine army is in real danger of being completel…
> ban impartiality
What ban was impartial?
Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
#13Zelensky is starting to sound like he's open to considering some of Russia's stated terms (no pursuit of NATO membership and cession of eastern Ukraine). That doesn't sound like things are going especially well for him.
Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
#14Earlier quoted context omitted.
lack of natural barriers, the Ukraine, Belarus lands are flat which means very little places to hide for the insurgency. in Afghanistan the Taliban could hide out in network of caves and there is just no flatten mountains, the Vietcongs could utilize underground networks and dense forests to operate. One hope for Ukraine is urban warfare, Putin launched two miserable wars against Chechnya and they were decimated from…
Yes. The terrain for Ukranian insurgents will simply be civilians. How can you tell who is going to shoot you in the back when you turn around? Unfortunately, we live in a new age and China has perfected facial recognition software, which they will probably have no scruples about providing to Russia. I'm not sure a crowd provides the same kind of anonymity that it once did.
The uncomfortable truth is that civilians will be used as shields by insurgency as it always has.
We are starting to see some of this right now (and I'm not 100% certain) but for instance the alleged Azov battalion operating near DNR/LNR area is said to be not allowing citizens to leave the city. There are footages going around them turning (you can tell from the patches they wear) citizens away from checkpoints as they try to leave.
Like Hamas in Palestine who regularly launch rockets at Israel from top of apartment buildings, it's only a matter of time before insurgency turns to this tactic as they are determined to keep fighting.
Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
#15how much of this was contributed to banning all reporting from the Russian side of things? right now the atmosphere is like if you even remotely suggest that Russia is actually making slow progress despite losses you are viewed as supporting Russia! Yet what the fixation on Kyiv is doing is it's pulling resources away from the south and Donentsk/Lukansk area where the Ukraine army is in real danger of being completel…
If Putin fails in Ukraine, he'll be forced from power in Russia. He has no reason to give up and every reason to continue until he can claim at least some sort of victory.
Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
#16Zelensky is starting to sound like he's open to considering some of Russia's stated terms (no pursuit of NATO membership and cession of eastern Ukraine). That doesn't sound like things are going especially well for him.
It's a lot better than the regime change that Russia was initially aiming for. Fighting a large neighboring power to a standstill and suing for peace is quite the success.
Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
#17Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
#18Here's my prediction:
Russia will take control of all or most nuclear power plants and other infrastructure. At which point it's only a matter of time until the people of Ukraine will surrender with no water or electricity.
As it stands the West can do nothing.
In the case that NATO starts shooting, the sarcophagus over Chernobyl can be bombed (Putin can blame Ukrainians here).
It seems to be that there's no way out for the Ukrainians :(
Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
#19how much of this was contributed to banning all reporting from the Russian side of things? right now the atmosphere is like if you even remotely suggest that Russia is actually making slow progress despite losses you are viewed as supporting Russia! Yet what the fixation on Kyiv is doing is it's pulling resources away from the south and Donentsk/Lukansk area where the Ukraine army is in real danger of being completel…
I think you're overreacting. There is literally an article on the homepage of The Guardian today that explicitly talks about the over-focus on Kyiv https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/08/kyiv-deadlock-...
Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
#20Here's my prediction: Russia will take control of all or most nuclear power plants and other infrastructure. At which point it's only a matter of time until the people of Ukraine will surrender with no water or electricity. As it stands the West can do nothing. In the case that NATO starts shooting, the sarcophagus over Chernobyl can be bombed (Putin can blame Ukrainians here). It seems to be that there's no way out…
I agree. I fear Ukraine will “win” when Russia retreats from the scorched, destroyed-to-rubble ruins of their nation.