Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Myocarditis Cases Reported After mRNA-Based Covid-19 Vaccination

jamanetwork.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

51–60 of 94 posts

Re: Myocarditis Cases Reported After mRNA-Based Covid-19 Vaccination

#51

Post by Arnt »

eminence32 wrote: post #17
assbuttbuttass wrote: post #2

It's important to mention that catching COVID also causes myocarditis https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e5.htm Edit: this article says out of 192 405 448 people, 1626 had myocarditis, or about 0.0008%. In contrast, the CDC estimates COVID has a 0.146% chance to give you myocarditis.

If I'm reading both summaries correctly: Rates of myocarditis after 2nd shot for males 16 to 17 years of age: 105.9 per million doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine Rates of myocarditis from COVID-19: 1500 per million cases I rewrote both stats to be in the form of "x per 1 million" but I don't think that's a fair thing to do. Not everyone is going to get both a vaccine and get covid. What's a better comparison? Rates of my…

The numbers are so different that it doesn't matter very much how you compare. It would be different if only 5% of unvaccinated people contract the disease, or if the vaccine reduced the likelihood of infection by only 5%.

Re: Myocarditis Cases Reported After mRNA-Based Covid-19 Vaccination

#52

Post by dahfizz »

alfor wrote: post #31
mgamache wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also true that VAERS may be underreporting cases.

I hear that a factor of a 100X is common. The system is made so that the least amount of effect are reported. Personally I know someone who had a heart attack 3 day after second dose (60yo female) The doctor dismissed the possibility of a causation by the vaccine, this case is not reported even if the person almost died. Is covid still worse than the vaccine with Omicron, I don’t know, probable. But I know that most…

Yeah. My partner got a moderately severe skin rash after her Moderna vaccine. She tried to report it but was ignored by everyone. Now it finally comes out that Moderna can cause severe skin rashes...

Re: Myocarditis Cases Reported After mRNA-Based Covid-19 Vaccination

#53

Post by disambiguation »

JohnHaugeland wrote: post #25
disambiguation wrote: post #21

> Results Among 192 405 448 persons receiving a total of 354 100 845 mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines during the study period, there were 1991 reports of myocarditis to VAERS and 1626 of these reports met the case definition of myocarditis. So.. we're using VAERS now?

You aren't using anything. The scientists are, in a controlled way. That doesn't mean that it's a regular source. Yes, it's appropriate to use a no-validation report system to search for signal. Vaers is crap, but crap is actually what you want when you're saying "look how ridiculously wide I cast my net looking for examples."

Sure, I don't mind leaving it to the scientists. I'm just wondering "out loud" for 2 reasons:

1. "experts" have been relentlessly debunking vaers the past 2 years. This is even discussed in the limitations: "Given the high verification rate of reports of myocarditis to VAERS after mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccination, underreporting is more likely."

2. This isn't the first analysis of this kind, yet prior reports have emphasized an important distinction not found in the OP:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01630-0

> the increased risk of myocarditis after vaccination was higher in persons aged under 40 years. We estimated extra myocarditis events to be between 1 and 10 per million persons in the month following vaccination, which was substantially lower than the 40 extra events per million persons observed following SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Re: Myocarditis Cases Reported After mRNA-Based Covid-19 Vaccination

#54

Post by brandon272 »

kaczordon wrote: post #49
alanfranz wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> easily I'd remove that word. It's more uncommon to get symptomatic covid in vaccinated vs unvaccinated. We still need to investigate whether myocarditis risks exceeds vaccine benefits in very young people.

No reason to remove that word. Here are data for 2 doses of mRNA for effectiveness against Omicron infection. Follow the red line from figure 1 on page 27 of the PDF. Over time, it is 0%. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.07.22268919v...

Seems weirdly selective to point to "over time it is 0%" ... well yes, I assume that if I never get another vaccination that at some point in time I may be susceptible to COVID.

What this study does show is that with a booster shot you are offered significant immunity against COVID, including omicron. I'll take 50 or 60% over 0% any day of the week.

I am incredibly grateful for the vaccines, which have done (and continue to do) a tremendous amount of heavy lifting as far as global health and reducing severe illness and hospitalization is concerned, despite those who like to pretend that they are pretty much useless.

Re: Myocarditis Cases Reported After mRNA-Based Covid-19 Vaccination

#55

Post by brandon272 »

gameswithgo wrote: post #36
alanfranz wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> easily I'd remove that word. It's more uncommon to get symptomatic covid in vaccinated vs unvaccinated. We still need to investigate whether myocarditis risks exceeds vaccine benefits in very young people.

With omicron it is not uncommon. Family of 4, all of us vaccinated to the max, we all got it. Also my brother, many neighbors.

In my larger extended family, we are also vaccinated "to the max". None of us have gotten it. These anecdotes don't mean a lot.

Re: Myocarditis Cases Reported After mRNA-Based Covid-19 Vaccination

#56

Post by lern_too_spel »

wusher wrote: post #16
assbuttbuttass wrote: post #2

It's important to mention that catching COVID also causes myocarditis https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e5.htm Edit: this article says out of 192 405 448 people, 1626 had myocarditis, or about 0.0008%. In contrast, the CDC estimates COVID has a 0.146% chance to give you myocarditis.

I don't have the numbers to answer this but which groups are getting myocarditis also matters. If covid causes myocarditis in 1 out of 100 people in an age group prone to myocarditis, but mRNA causes myocarditis in 15 out of 1000 people in an age group that doesn't get myocarditis, then then we should be very concerned about the mRNA myocarditis and adjust our policies accordingly. Again, I made up those numbers and…

They're very likely to be causing myocarditis through the same mechanism involving the spike protein, which means your scenario is unlikely. Myocarditis prevalence among college athletes who have recovered from a COVID-19 infection (even asymptomatic) is so high that some conferences require comprehensive cardiac testing before they can return to play. https://www.thecardiologyadvisor.com/general-cardiology/hear...

Exercising while infected is known to increase risk. If you get the vaccine, you will be told not to exert yourself for some time after. If you get infected, you might have no idea that you should stop exercising unless and until you're symptomatic. https://www.bvhealthsystem.org/expert-health-articles/covid-...

Re: Myocarditis Cases Reported After mRNA-Based Covid-19 Vaccination

#57

Post by lern_too_spel »

peteradio wrote: post #32
alanfranz wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> easily I'd remove that word. It's more uncommon to get symptomatic covid in vaccinated vs unvaccinated. We still need to investigate whether myocarditis risks exceeds vaccine benefits in very young people.

> vaccinated vs unvaccinated. Unvaccinated is two groups that are wildly different: Those who've had Covid and those who haven't. Depending on where you are, unvaccinated may be majority share recovered, in which case this is an incorrect statement: > It's more uncommon to get symptomatic covid in vaccinated vs unvaccinated.

That statement is still true if you split by those who have had Covid and those who haven't. In both groups, those who have been vaccinated are less likely to get symptomatic covid.

Re: Myocarditis Cases Reported After mRNA-Based Covid-19 Vaccination

#58

Post by kaczordon »

brandon272 wrote: post #54
kaczordon wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No reason to remove that word. Here are data for 2 doses of mRNA for effectiveness against Omicron infection. Follow the red line from figure 1 on page 27 of the PDF. Over time, it is 0%. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.07.22268919v...

Seems weirdly selective to point to "over time it is 0%" ... well yes, I assume that if I never get another vaccination that at some point in time I may be susceptible to COVID. What this study does show is that with a booster shot you are offered significant immunity against COVID, including omicron. I'll take 50 or 60% over 0% any day of the week. I am incredibly grateful for the vaccines, which have done (and cont…

What this study does show is that with a booster shot you are offered significant immunity against COVID, including omicron.

The confidence interval is between 10%-60% for the booster, oddly selective of you to pick the highest number. The FDA standard is to have at least 50% VE, with lower bound CI >30% for EUA.

What this study does show is that immunity is trending down and will likely hit 0 within a few months once the antibody response wanes. So yes, omicron does spread easily which is the original point I was contesting.

In addition to this it is well known now that for men under 40 the risk of myocarditis from the vaccine outweighs the risk from the virus: https://vinayprasadmdmph.substack.com/p/uk-now-reports-myoca...

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01630-0.pdf

Re: Myocarditis Cases Reported After mRNA-Based Covid-19 Vaccination

#59

Post by basch »

mattzito wrote: post #18
nicoburns wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That’s why we don’t see myocarditis from non-MRNA vaccines like Astra Zeneca. Does the AstraZeneca vaccine not include the spike protein? I thought it included the whole virus including the spike protein.

I posted a similar comment, but it's not the same - AZ uses a modified non-Covid virus that has been engineered to model the spike protein. I'm not sure why that spike protein is different than the MRNA, other than being attached to a virus.

The spike is not attached to the virus, it's produced by the virus.

In both the mrna and viral vector vaccines, the mrna and virus are the DELIVERY mechanism of the payload.

Re: Myocarditis Cases Reported After mRNA-Based Covid-19 Vaccination

#60

Post by 0x500x79 »

I know this might be a bad analogy, but it was one of the things that went through my mind during all of this as a software engineer:

"We have this bug in production which is a Sev-1. We have a possible fix that won't make things worse we can rollout that should make things better."

Yes, we have all been here where someone did this and it made things worse, but we also have thousands of people looking at this change and been in situations where this was required.

I guess what I'm saying is: The spike protein is in the vaccine and the virus - injecting ourselves with a spike protein to build immunity is likely less impactful than getting the entire virus. If it is truly the spike protein that causes myocarditis, then it causing issues in vaccination is a non-issue. There is a (in my mind high, but we need controlled studies on it) chance that the same people would have gotten myocarditis from Covid. If we can limit the number of other side-effects that people have during the myocarditis then it seems like a win.

I am by no means a virologist or an expert in vaccines, just my thought process.

Post reply on HN