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France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

reuters.com

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Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#51

Post by nicoburns »

inglor_cz wrote: post #34
WastingMyTime89 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a) abandon New Caledonia entirely. It's more that Caledonia could chose to leave. But that only marginaly change the issue. France has other territories in the Pacific. > b) join AUKUS as a junior partner, very painful but logical; That would be very illogical. France interests are not aligned with the USA. Also they are a nuclear country with a permanent seat on the UN security council. They will never be a junior…

> There is plenty to gain through the diplomatic route as long as you see China as an equal partner and not an inferior country. Does China see other countries as equal partners? Their Howling Wolf diplomacy seems to kick in whenever anything they dislike appears in any media. See their current hatefest against Lithuania, a country with population smaller than Shanghai. I for one am not very ready to sacrifice, e.g.…

> See their current hatefest against Lithuania, a country with population smaller than Shanghai.

The US isn't much better. They have a history of invading of destabilising the governments of countries they don't like.

> we can at least discuss them mostly freely and the authoritarian developments (governmental and distributed alike) tend to get some pushback and dissent, and the dissidents do not end up in jail or shot.

Tell that to all the countries who tried to implement communist systems of government... and found their leaders shot or in jail.

> I do not trust China commercially either, given their history of copying everything and then flooding markets with cheap knock-offs to undermine the original producers.

And I don't trust the US commercially, with their history of enforcing tariff-free markets on countries and flooding them with cheap US-made goods that wipe out domestic production leaving the countries in very dire straits (see e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rice_production_in_Haiti).

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#52

Post by Adrig »

bodge5000 wrote: post #35
gerty wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just a contract though. France actually has a maritime border with Australia and its own interests in the Pacific -> the entire French Pacific strategy was wiped out by 3 "allies" behind its back.

Lets not pretend this was a mighty backstabbing by everyone else who france treated with nothing but kindness. I can't speak much for the US or Aus, but I wouldn't call them on good terms with the UK, beyond even the historical jibes. I'm sure this is bad for France, don't get me wrong, but in terms of how their allies acted, its not particularly shocking or even abnormal.

It is, tho. Diplomacy is a sensible thing. It's not as much about the contract lost, but the way it was handled. The contract was also a key piece for a deeper collaboration in the pacific area, one of the most important geopolitical sectors for the next 20 years. France shared highly confidential material for months, while Australia already had decided to breach the contract. In international relationships among allies where trust is crucial, it's pretty big.

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#53

Post by liotier »

alexitorg wrote: post #33
gerty wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just a contract though. France actually has a maritime border with Australia and its own interests in the Pacific -> the entire French Pacific strategy was wiped out by 3 "allies" behind its back.

How has the French pacific strategy been wiped out? What was it?

France’s Indo‑Pacific Strategy: https://au.ambafrance.org/IMG/pdf/en_indopacifique_web_cle0f...

Multilateralism was a pillar of that strategy. Australia shifting from an equal partner to a US vassal signals an end to that.

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#54

Post by tempodox »

kryptiskt wrote: post #48

So they have failed to deliver for five years with huge cost overruns and delays and get all mad when their customer says enough is enough. I wonder if any lessons learned will make it way back to their defense industry, or if playing the victim will suffice for them too.

Projects like that are (in)famous for what you mentioned. Of course it works best when the customer is your own government.

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#55

Post by sofixa »

corty wrote: post #45
inglor_cz wrote: post #2

On one hand I understand them, sudden cancelation of a contract is very unpleasant and demeaning. On the other hand, this is basically a diplomatic version of a tantrum; and powerful countries rarely respond to a tantrum by doing anything substantial. If France could get the rest of the EU behind it, then maybe. But rest of the EU looks at the problem with disinterest, given that they stood to gain nothing from the o…

France cannot get the EU behind it. On the original contract in 2016, Germany also bid and in all likelihood could have won, since Germany has far more experience with building non-nuclear subs with Diesel or fuel-cell drives. France had to start the designs almost from scratch since they offered a redesign of their nuclear subs. France desperately wanted the contract and probably only won the bidding by intentionall…

The press coverage you linked contradicts you. It says that TKMS' bid is too risky because it requires doubling the size of their existing design, which is risky.

Furthermore, it's entirely on Australia to choose the best bid. If they thought TKMS' bid is risky to upscale, they should also have thought DCNS/Naval Group's bid is also risky due to having to redesign and chosen the Japanese design which was the closest to what they wanted. Considering the fiasco that was their precious submarine acquisition, it's not surprising it failed again.

I don't know what they're going to do while waiting for the new subs to come in the 2050s, the Collins-class isn't supposed to last that long.

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#56

Post by mytailorisrich »

inglor_cz wrote: post #46
mytailorisrich wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

d) stand its ground independently, invest in its military to have the capability it needs, work with AUKUS if and when it is in its interests to do so. This includes taking a more 'non-aligned' stance on China, but that'd not be historically new (France was the first Western country to recognise the PRC and De Gaulle even advised Kennedy to do it sooner than later).

French vital interests are in Africa, not in Pacific. And the strategic situation in Sahel isn't good. Given that military budgets are always strained, it makes sense to concentrate on the core challenges and leaving the Pacific be.

France has strategic interests in Africa. And it has also vital interests in the Pacific because it actually has territories in the region.

France has the largest maritime EEZ in the world, owning 8% of the global EEZ areas. A lot of that is due to its territories in the Pacific and Indian Ocean. New Caledonia also has 25% of the world's nickel reserve. Defending your national territory is a vital interest.

Saying that it "should leave the Pacific be" is exactly what the US and Australia want (hence France being excluded from AUKUS), and exactly what it should not do.

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#57

Post by rualca »

jean_tta wrote: post #11
inglor_cz wrote: post #2

On one hand I understand them, sudden cancelation of a contract is very unpleasant and demeaning. On the other hand, this is basically a diplomatic version of a tantrum; and powerful countries rarely respond to a tantrum by doing anything substantial. If France could get the rest of the EU behind it, then maybe. But rest of the EU looks at the problem with disinterest, given that they stood to gain nothing from the o…

I don't understand why major arm contracts suddenly went from having obvious geopolitical implications (e.g. Turkey S-400 procurement) to being "mere contracts".

It's not hard to understand why Turkey's case has critical geopolitical implications while Australia's doesn't really have one. I mean, just take a look at the sellers and the military alliances the buyers are in.

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#58

Post by kazen44 »

woofie11 wrote: post #21
Balero wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> b) join AUKUS as a junior partner, very painful but logical; Why is this logical? These partners have already shown that they are going to betray France's trust and lie to them. It would be better to be on your own than have unreliable partners, or worse ones that work against you.

To be fair, France has consistently betrayed its allies, throughout history. The start of WWII is worth looking at, where both France and Britain broke mutual defense treaty after mutual defense treaty appeasing Germany. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoney_War A lost sale in contrast? That seems more like normal business than lying and betrayal.

mind you that pre world war two. the political and diplomatic game in Europe was far different then it is today.

I would not expect France to the same behavior with other EU members.

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#59

Post by akmarinov »

inglor_cz wrote: post #2

On one hand I understand them, sudden cancelation of a contract is very unpleasant and demeaning. On the other hand, this is basically a diplomatic version of a tantrum; and powerful countries rarely respond to a tantrum by doing anything substantial. If France could get the rest of the EU behind it, then maybe. But rest of the EU looks at the problem with disinterest, given that they stood to gain nothing from the o…

It’s not so much the cancellation of the contract as how it was done instead.

AUKUS basically blindsided France, didn’t give them any warning or a chance to diplomatically save face. It was like spitting in their face.

Why bother having a defence meeting with the UK if they’ll turn around tomorrow and spit in France’s face again by not telling them something?

Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say

#60

Post by mytailorisrich »

makomk wrote: post #43
RalfWausE wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would bet a paycheck on option c) The EU and (especially France and Germany) is not THAT critical of China as the US (and other countries...), and France has a big sense of national pride and no problems acting on it. Is this in any way "good"? I don't know, but realisticaly i CAN see the EU siding more with China than the US in the long run.

Well, the big thing holding up a trade deal with China right now is that China decided to sanction several MEPs and the European Parliament's human rights subcommittee for scrutinizing their forced labour camps in Xinjiang, which the European Parliament of course considered an attack on democracy itself. So if France used its sway to get the EU to align with China, that'd basically demonstrate that the French governm…

> now is that China decided to sanction several MEPs and the European Parliament's human rights subcommittee

It should be noted that this was in retaliation to the EU imposing sanctions on a number of Chinese officials.

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