China allows couples to have three children • Hacker News Board

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#51

Post by infinity0 » Mon, May 31, 2021, 12:05 PM UTC

stefan_ wrote: post #17

throw0101a wrote: post #11

There is some question on whether the one-child policy was even needed. If you look at a graph of "children per mother" chart before and after the original policy went into effect, it's quite evident that rates were dropping for more than a decade beforehand: * https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2016/october/china... * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Birth_rate_in_China.svg * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O…

There is another graph here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China#/media/F... Which shows a massive male surplus particularly in the young demographics, way larger than you would biologically expect. How can we claim this policy has no effect if clearly people are still killing female infants?

You should always compare the data against other countries before jumping to hasty conclusions based on your own prejudices and confirmation biases.

- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:China_single_age_populati...

- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:USA2020dec1.png

The proportional male surplus in China is just over double that of the US. Of course there is something different happening in China, but asserting that this is mostly due to people "killing female infants" is ludicrous. By your logic, there "only" about 2/5 (portionally) of female infants getting killed in the United States as well.

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#52

Post by TimPC » Mon, May 31, 2021, 12:06 PM UTC

riffraff wrote: post #44

TimPC wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was under the impression the one child policy never applied in poor rural areas. If it was universally enforced I’d like to see an explanation for China’s population growth over a period where it would have experienced a decline.

If people don't die as early as before and you have few newborns you can still experience growth for a while.

I agree but definitely think 1979 to 2016 is longer than that while.

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#53

Post by marcus_holmes » Mon, May 31, 2021, 12:07 PM UTC

infinity0 wrote: post #39

marcus_holmes wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you were joking, but totalitarian regimes have done this before (Romania's orphan crisis was the result of similar policies, iirc). The poverty/immigration dance - if you reduce poverty, women have less children. Eventually you reach the point where you need to allow immigration to provide enough workers to keep your aging population from starving. Immigration is an existential threat if your country is based…

China is not a totalitarian regime - you shouldn't believe all the propaganda out there, you should actually go there yourself and you'll find that you can live your life quite normally and happily. China's identity isn't based on a single ethnic identity - the various restrictions (such as the now-3-child-policy, and permanent immigration between cities) apply to everyone. In fact ethnic minorities generally get pre…

I spent years travelling around SE Asia, and met plenty of Chinese, enough to decide I did not want to go there. All of them were openly racist (mind you, all of SE Asia is openly racist, so this is nothing unusual). I accept that there are minority ethnic identities within China, but I have been told over and again (by Chinese people) that China is Han.

I have Chinese friends here in Berlin who still won't talk about Chinese politics within hearing range of their phones. If this isn't a totalitarian regime, what is?

My direct experience contradicts your statements. What are you basing them on?

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#54

Post by [deleted] » Mon, May 31, 2021, 12:08 PM UTC

yakubin wrote: post #21

thaumasiotes wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't think China wants back to exponential growth ever. Any policy defined in terms of "X children per couple" or "X children per woman" is, by definition, exponential growth. When X is 3, it's very rapid exponential growth.

When X is 2, then 2 people replace 2 in theory, so there is no growth. In practice, some of those children will die early, so 2 is actually a minor reduction, not growth, forget about exponential.

[deleted]

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#55

Post by sd4ee3 » Mon, May 31, 2021, 12:08 PM UTC

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Re: China allows couples to have three children

#56

Post by hackingthenews » Mon, May 31, 2021, 12:14 PM UTC

blueblisters wrote: post #45

hackingthenews wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It could also be that they see no scenario ahead where they want the average number of children per woman to be above 3. I don't think China wants back to exponential growth ever. They probably want to find their equilibrium. Consider if something unlikely happens that completely changes the dynamic of families, e.g. a cultural shift where women stay more at home and have more babies. If the average family started ha…

I think the idea is to bring the average up to 2.1, which is the accepted "replacement" fertility rate, to stem a population decline. One way to achieve that level is when a majority of women have 2 children but a few have 3 children. For a population the size of China, a "few" might mean a few million. I don't see that happening without a few carrots.

Yup agreed, commented the exact same below.

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#57

Post by [deleted] » Mon, May 31, 2021, 12:14 PM UTC

yakubin wrote: post #21

thaumasiotes wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't think China wants back to exponential growth ever. Any policy defined in terms of "X children per couple" or "X children per woman" is, by definition, exponential growth. When X is 3, it's very rapid exponential growth.

When X is 2, then 2 people replace 2 in theory, so there is no growth. In practice, some of those children will die early, so 2 is actually a minor reduction, not growth, forget about exponential.

[deleted]

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#58

Post by woutr_be » Mon, May 31, 2021, 12:15 PM UTC

TimPC wrote: post #27

axiosgunnar wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TFA talks about this, saying they fear a child number explosion in poor rural areas.

I was under the impression the one child policy never applied in poor rural areas. If it was universally enforced I’d like to see an explanation for China’s population growth over a period where it would have experienced a decline.

It generally wasn’t strictly enforced anyway, as in, if you had a second child, you could pay a fine, and legally register your child.

And yes, it didn’t apply to rural areas as well.

I had a friend in China who lived in Shenzhen and has 3 children, he essentially just payed two fines (not even sure how much it was).

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#59

Post by adamors » Mon, May 31, 2021, 12:16 PM UTC

marcus_holmes wrote: post #29

hyko wrote: post #15

Won’t be long before three children are mandatory.

I think you were joking, but totalitarian regimes have done this before (Romania's orphan crisis was the result of similar policies, iirc). The poverty/immigration dance - if you reduce poverty, women have less children. Eventually you reach the point where you need to allow immigration to provide enough workers to keep your aging population from starving. Immigration is an existential threat if your country is based…

Romania's orphan crisis was the result of restricting abortions to a select few categories of women. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decree_770

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#60

Post by woutr_be » Mon, May 31, 2021, 12:16 PM UTC

29athrowaway wrote: post #48

The problem with China right now is the 4-2-1 problem. Because of their one child policy, you have a family generation consisting of 4 people (grandparents), followed by 2 people (parents), followed by 1 person. So now they are way on their way to an demographic crisis, where most people will be old.

Another result of this, is that males outnumber females, so there’s a lot of single males unable to find a partner. This is because parents generally preferred boys as their only child.