More Scientists Urge Broad Inquiry into Coronavirus Origins • Hacker News Board

Re: More Scientists Urge Broad Inquiry into Coronavirus Origins

#51

Post by austincheney » Mon, May 17, 2021, 8:31 PM UTC

btilly wrote: post #43

austincheney wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is an argument from ignorance logical fallacy. The inability to find something has no bearing on whether it exists or not and thus has no bearing on the probability of an inverted outcome. Dark matter/energy also frequently fall into this sort of argument. There is no evidence that they do exist, which does not suggest the absence of their existence. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_ignorance

It stops being a fallacy and starts to become a valid consideration when the search for the thing not found has been thorough enough that it would have been very likely to be found if it had been there. Suppose that I remember leaving $5000 in plain sight on a table. My initial priors are a 90% chance that it is there, a 9% chance that I put it somewhere else by accident, and a 1% that my friend Bob took it. I conduc…

Logic does not cease to be fallacious merely because somebody works hard and becomes frustrated.

Re: More Scientists Urge Broad Inquiry into Coronavirus Origins

#52

Post by juancampa » Mon, May 17, 2021, 8:32 PM UTC

bryanlarsen wrote: post #42

btilly wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The question is whether the type of research that might have lead to this result should be shut down to prevent similar accidents in the future. If COVID-19 was, in fact, a lab release then that's a strong argument for shutting the research down.

Even if it was a lab release, it's still a natural virus and could have happened without the lab release. Without previous studies of related viruses, it would have taken multiple years to produce a vaccine.

Not exactly. "gain of function" [0] research, if I understand correctly, tries to understand how to make a virus more virulent. Or make it affect hosts it wouldn't normally affect.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gain_of_function_research

Re: More Scientists Urge Broad Inquiry into Coronavirus Origins

#53

Post by slenk » Mon, May 17, 2021, 8:32 PM UTC

bryanlarsen wrote: post #42

btilly wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The question is whether the type of research that might have lead to this result should be shut down to prevent similar accidents in the future. If COVID-19 was, in fact, a lab release then that's a strong argument for shutting the research down.

Even if it was a lab release, it's still a natural virus and could have happened without the lab release. Without previous studies of related viruses, it would have taken multiple years to produce a vaccine.

Depends on what you view as natural. They have been doing "Gain of Function" research which is designed to enhance viruses.

https://www.newsweek.com/controversial-wuhan-lab-experiments...

Re: More Scientists Urge Broad Inquiry into Coronavirus Origins

#54

Post by gnicholas » Mon, May 17, 2021, 8:33 PM UTC

tshaddox wrote: post #28

tick_tock_tick wrote: post #8

As it takes longer and longer to find any evidence in nature a lab leaking is becoming the most likely source.

Hasn’t the exact same amount of time elapsed without finding any evidence of a lab leak?

Nature leaves a trail, so if you don’t find a trail then it becomes increasingly implausible that COVID resulted from a natural process. There are currently several intermediate steps that have not been uncovered anywhere, and which would have to have happened in order for this to be a natural process.

Re: More Scientists Urge Broad Inquiry into Coronavirus Origins

#55

Post by ska » Mon, May 17, 2021, 8:34 PM UTC

google234123 wrote: post #5

mensetmanusman wrote: post #3

Part of me thinks that we should almost not waste the time to find out. Spend the effort on preparing for the next one, by improving air filtration etc. Politics is too deeply entrenched, it will be an impossibility to uncover the truth.

What is sad is that these ideas were dismissed as crackpotish or racist until now.

Most of what I recalling at the time doesn't match that description. It was more disparaged as pointless speculation mostly being used to fuel political finger pointing when people had far more important things to figure out.

Sampling bias acknowledged.

Re: More Scientists Urge Broad Inquiry into Coronavirus Origins

#56

Post by tomjen3 » Mon, May 17, 2021, 8:37 PM UTC

actuator wrote: post #10

How is this even going to work? PRC will never allow access to the actual data if it was a lab escape/origin. The sort of propoganda happening on Twitter shows that even discussion is going to be difficult.

If experts can make a decent argument that the lab escape is the most likely scenario, then the PRC can choose to let us have access to the data, or look 100% guilty and be treated accordingly.

Re: More Scientists Urge Broad Inquiry into Coronavirus Origins

#57

Post by tomjen3 » Mon, May 17, 2021, 8:39 PM UTC

tshaddox wrote: post #28

tick_tock_tick wrote: post #8

As it takes longer and longer to find any evidence in nature a lab leaking is becoming the most likely source.

Hasn’t the exact same amount of time elapsed without finding any evidence of a lab leak?

You only need a handful of people working on this to have knowledge of it. The PRC is really good at locking up people to keep them quiet.

Re: More Scientists Urge Broad Inquiry into Coronavirus Origins

#58

Post by noofen » Mon, May 17, 2021, 8:39 PM UTC

CamouflagedKiwi wrote: post #49

bko wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And maybe liability on the offending party?

There's no possibility to get that kind of money paid back if a party was found responsible. At this point it must be trillions.

Liable in the hundreds of billions? Too big to fail.

Liable in the trillions? Too big to speak about.

Re: More Scientists Urge Broad Inquiry into Coronavirus Origins

#59

Post by AndrewBissell » Mon, May 17, 2021, 8:42 PM UTC

mirekrusin wrote: post #18

What's the point? Regardless if it leaked from the lab or not we have to prepare for the future the same way.

If this virus indeed came from a lab, then:

a.) It was covered up,

b.) The people responsible hid crucial information which could have helped contain the spread in the early days and find treatments,

c.) The people assuring us that lab creation was an impossible "conspiracy theory" at the very least have egg on their face, and at worst have no credibility or were engaged in a campaign of mis/disinformation.

And that's without getting into questions of whether the "leak" story is being used to cover for "intentional release."

Re: More Scientists Urge Broad Inquiry into Coronavirus Origins

#60

Post by Dah00n » Mon, May 17, 2021, 8:43 PM UTC

tomjen3 wrote: post #56

actuator wrote: post #10

How is this even going to work? PRC will never allow access to the actual data if it was a lab escape/origin. The sort of propoganda happening on Twitter shows that even discussion is going to be difficult.

If experts can make a decent argument that the lab escape is the most likely scenario, then the PRC can choose to let us have access to the data, or look 100% guilty and be treated accordingly.

So guilty unless proven innocent?