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The OODA Loop: How Fighter Pilots Make Fast and Accurate Decisions

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Re: The OODA Loop: How Fighter Pilots Make Fast and Accurate Decisions

#51

Before stating *how* fighter pilots make fast and accurate decisions, surely we need to study *if* fighter pilots make fast and accurate decisions? I mean, do they really? What evidence is there that pilots are great, or even above average, decision makers?

A lot of the discussion here is assuming that the US military is good at what it does, but we've been losing for twenty years to people who live without electricity, so either the Taliban has a lightning fast OODA loop or the concept is basically useless as applied.

Re: The OODA Loop: How Fighter Pilots Make Fast and Accurate Decisions

#53
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm unclear as to what's novel about OODA. Can someone give me an alternative model for context? It seems like all other permutations, e.g. DOAO or ADOO or DOOA wouldn't make sense, so what is the "eureka" about OODA? Also, separately, it just sounds to me like perception (OO), planning (D), control (A) renamed so I'm still not seeing what's novel about it.

I'm not sure, I'm not an expert in this and I've never been in the military. However, I bet there's little to nothing uniquely good about OODA over the alternatives you mention. My guess is that having a standardized rapid decision making framework is valuable compared to the frantic scramble that might take place otherwise.

> My guess is that having a standardized rapid decision making framework is valuable compared to the frantic scramble that might take place otherwise.

Having been in the military and received specific training on tactical decision making, I can say that this is a pretty good take on why OODA is taught.

When you're in any situation where you need to maintain positive control on the outcome, the biggest problem you can run into is when the situation changes in an unexpected way (insert classic Napoleon paraphrase "Plans are the first casualties in contact with the enemy"). The reason why the OODA loop is specifically used, rather than other permutations of the same idea, is that it's very efficient. For the classic HN crowd, a good analogy or application of OODA would be a PID loop, or any other event-driven feedback system.

Observe: has the situation changed? If not, continue with the current plan, else orient.

Orient: how can we change to match the situation, given who we are and what we're doing? If there are no positive changes to make, keep observing, else make a decision.

Decide: can we make a decision based on our new orientation? If not, return to observe, else act.

Act: perform the decision, then return to observing, paying special attention to the outcome of the actions.

Using this loop properly, at each stage you're still ready to go back to observing, and less likely to get mired in back and forth decision making without a solid reassessment.

This thought pattern is especially helpful in small team leaders, as they often have the flexibility and direct observational abilities to make full use of the information at hand. It tends not to work as well for single individuals and large organizations (in my experience), for individuals because of the incomplete information, and for organizations because of the signal delays in information and enactment.

Re: The OODA Loop: How Fighter Pilots Make Fast and Accurate Decisions

#54
post #29

On a longer timeframe, PDCA (Plan-Do-Check-Act) / PDSA (Plan-Do-Study-Act) models[0] are common, and I run into them frequently in non-profit social/community work. The "Do" part of the cycle is frequently misunderstood, it's more of a test. I've found PDSA to be challenging with developers, with a tendency to want to short-circuit the process and leap intuitively to the "solution" at the end of the cycle. Talented,…

PDCA sounds to me like it would fit with the agile scrum cycle of plan, sprint, review and retro? I would not be surprised if scrum is just repackaging

I'm not sure Scrum is a repackaging, but it frustrates me that more people aren't familiar with the Deming-Shewart cycle (PDCA) which leads neatly into the Toyota Production System and Lean.

Re: The OODA Loop: How Fighter Pilots Make Fast and Accurate Decisions

#55
post #2

OODA loop is often hyped, but really it is just a description of how humans (and animals) behave in almost any situation. "Look, Think, Decide, Act" in other words. It's not valuable in the sense that you can "practice" or "apply" the loop and perform better. Your behavior already follows this model. Its real value probably came from presenting this common decision making process in a way that appealed to upper milit…

I agree that the OODA theory is in line with what any behaviour is. I think the real value of it is with its implementation : "Fail fast, fail often" and agile mentality is born from this original theory, and I think these tactics are invaluable for rapid progress.

I think this also makes OODA an effective strategy: being able to conceptualise the whole system/problem in a holistic manner, and being able to quickly ascertain what are the important variables/factors, and therefore what you need do to to achieve the greatest impact/effect in line with your goal. This is, in my view, the whole point of OODA, and this takes a shrewd intellect and a lot of practice to get good at!

This kind of goes beyond the basic OODA acronym, but consideration of approach through each of the OODA stages is where the value of this theory resides. Indeed I try to implement this approach in my work as a scientist each day!

Re: The OODA Loop: How Fighter Pilots Make Fast and Accurate Decisions

#56
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm unclear as to what's novel about OODA. Can someone give me an alternative model for context? It seems like all other permutations, e.g. DOAO or ADOO or DOOA wouldn't make sense, so what is the "eureka" about OODA? Also, separately, it just sounds to me like perception (OO), planning (D), control (A) renamed so I'm still not seeing what's novel about it.

I'm not sure, I'm not an expert in this and I've never been in the military. However, I bet there's little to nothing uniquely good about OODA over the alternatives you mention. My guess is that having a standardized rapid decision making framework is valuable compared to the frantic scramble that might take place otherwise.

A couple of additional benefits of OODA loops, not editing my original because I'm on mobile:

It really helps prevent micromanaging, because it encourages the team leader to only change orders in response to a change in what they've observed.

It's very useful in after action debriefing ("debugging" for the HN crowd), because specific questions can be asked about where in the OODA loop a fault occured. Did you observe something incorrectly, or miss noticing a key detail? Did you incorrectly orient yourself because you didn't understand the purpose of what you were doing? Did you make a bad decision, or the wrong decision? Did you do everything else right, but your team failed in taking action correctly? Utilizing this framework gives granularity and introspection to you decision making process.

It prevents undermanagement, as you feel compelled (and justified) in responding to a changing situation, rather than fighting with yourself about taking action.

Re: The OODA Loop: How Fighter Pilots Make Fast and Accurate Decisions

#57
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm unclear as to what's novel about OODA. Can someone give me an alternative model for context? It seems like all other permutations, e.g. DOAO or ADOO or DOOA wouldn't make sense, so what is the "eureka" about OODA? Also, separately, it just sounds to me like perception (OO), planning (D), control (A) renamed so I'm still not seeing what's novel about it.

These two lines show how this is a dynamic interactive activity--like there are tight and loose loops continuously updating the decision making processes. Sort of like agile vs waterfall. > “Orientation isn’t just a state you’re in; it’s a process. You’re always orienting.” —John Boyd > The second stage of the OODA Loop, orient, is less intuitive than the other steps. [...]

Ironically I never understood agile and waterfall either.

I always thought that the entire universe operates by what people seem to call "waterfall", and "agile" was just a term that managers use when they're not happy with the way the universe works so they can bump up their own reputation.

Re: The OODA Loop: How Fighter Pilots Make Fast and Accurate Decisions

#58

Before stating *how* fighter pilots make fast and accurate decisions, surely we need to study *if* fighter pilots make fast and accurate decisions? I mean, do they really? What evidence is there that pilots are great, or even above average, decision makers?

Ding ding ding!

This thread is cargo culting hard. This is just a tool for making decisions in stressful situations buy forcing a separation of planning and acting so you don't flop around frantically. It's not a tool for organizations or your startup. Maybe it works for that but its applicability to you're startup should be proven independently.

Re: The OODA Loop: How Fighter Pilots Make Fast and Accurate Decisions

#59
post #34

For anyone interested in OODA, the Robert Coram biography of John Boyd, and "Certain to Win" by the Boyd disciple Chet Richards are good entry points. The value of OODA isn't really in providing a model for individual-level decisionmaking. The value is as a model for intra-organizational conflict: that one obtains strategic advantage (i.e. tempo) by running through one's OODA loop faster than competitors or opponents…

I'm unclear as to what's novel about OODA. Can someone give me an alternative model for context? It seems like all other permutations, e.g. DOAO or ADOO or DOOA wouldn't make sense, so what is the "eureka" about OODA? Also, separately, it just sounds to me like perception (OO), planning (D), control (A) renamed so I'm still not seeing what's novel about it.

It seems like "perception, planning, control" is used for autonomous vehicles? That's all I see when I google it. Boyd outlined OODA in the 1970s, so it's "novel" in the sense that it came ~30 years earlier.

From a human perspective, I think the novelty is that that it focuses attention on hard-to-see aspects of decision-making. It's not about the quality of any given decision, but about your ability to keep the song going and evolving in the right direction.

If you read Boyd's original material, he doesn't reallllllly see it as a loop. Every "node" in the process can feed back into previous parts. The focus is more on rhythm, tempo, beats.

He almost always writes "Loop" with quotes. A slide directly from him: https://share.getcloudapp.com/L1uN1RAJ

It's really worth reading Boyd directly. His picture is way more interesting and nuanced than "just go through the OODA loop faster". It's more like: you want to make it hard for your opponent to keep the beat.

Re: The OODA Loop: How Fighter Pilots Make Fast and Accurate Decisions

#60

For anyone interested in OODA, the Robert Coram biography of John Boyd, and "Certain to Win" by the Boyd disciple Chet Richards are good entry points. The value of OODA isn't really in providing a model for individual-level decisionmaking. The value is as a model for intra-organizational conflict: that one obtains strategic advantage (i.e. tempo) by running through one's OODA loop faster than competitors or opponents…

I feel like when I learned about the OODA loop, the big strategic advantage came from getting inside your opponent's OODA loop. It's less about being faster than them, and more about matching their tempo such that you're always one step ahead of them.

In a fighter pilot context, this makes a lot of sense, and gives you a model for figuring out who is chasing who. One person controls the flow of battle, and one ends up simply responding to their opponent. OODA lets you quickly figure out where your opponent is at in their decision making process so you can shift your own reactions such that you dictate to the opponent how the next moves are made.

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