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Ensuring a transparent, thorough investigation of Covid-19’s origin

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Re: Ensuring a transparent, thorough investigation of Covid-19’s origin

#51

Post by bertmuthalaly »

raphlinus wrote: post #20

I like Carl Bergstrom's take on this: I have reason to believe that if the outgoing administration claims to have reason to believe something but refuses to provide the evidence behind it, they are lying. https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1350292056782954498 Here's a very serious, legitimate review of the possible origins of SARS-CoV-2: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-01205-5 Unfortunately, from my e…

That paper is really frustrating - it seems to be written for laypeople like us, but conflates the theory that humans made a containment mistake and COVID escaped from a lab so (we should make research safer) with "COVID is an intentionally engineered bioweapon, so we should stop researching."

And the most critical claim in the paper is not substantiated in any way:

> Gain-of-function research is also subject to intense scrutiny and governmental oversight, precisely because of the high risk involved in conducting it safely; thus, it is extremely unlikely that gain-of-function research on hard-to-obtain coronaviruses (such as bat SARS-like coronaviruses) could occur under the radar.

Or substantiation is hinted at but never delivered:

> This work produced some of the strongest corroborating evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is a naturally emergent pathogen, as serological surveys demonstrated that people living in close proximity to colonies of bats had antibodies to bat SARS-like coronaviruses. The NIH has since set impossible conditions for restoring the grant, ensuring that this research will never resume.

Maybe the next place to go is learning more about the initial results from the EcoHealth Alliance grant referenced in the above quote. Still, it's a pretty unsatisfying review.

[edit, fixed typo: containement -> containment]

Re: Ensuring a transparent, thorough investigation of Covid-19’s origin

#52

Post by goldenkey »

rllearneratwork wrote: post #31
SlipperySlope wrote: post #4

The new part is the assertion that lab researchers got sick in the fall of 2019. This is consistent with evidence of the virus in Italy in the same time period. Due to the large number of Chinese working in Italy, there was a direct flight between Italy and Wuhan at the time. The new Biden administration has no reason to cover this up further, due to the obvious danger that another pandemic results from a lab acciden…

"leaked from lab" claim absolutely does not imply "designer". The virus could have been natural, collected for study (possibly in animal) by a lab which studies such viruses and still leaked via an accident (unexpected human transmission). To prove that it is "designer virus", additional, different kind of evidence is needed.

The Wuhan lab was doing gain-of-function research.

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/1/21243148/why-some-labs-work-on-...

Re: Ensuring a transparent, thorough investigation of Covid-19’s origin

#53

Post by throwawaybutwhy »

throwarayes wrote: post #40

I’m trying to piece together how any of this makes sense. The implication is that Covid was a biological weapon accidentally released? Wouldn’t this be a pretty idiotic biological weapon? An especially bad one for a heavily urbanized country to release? Not to mention the main outcome of this “weapon” would be hurt China’s top importers?

Let me spell it out: China was knowingly playing with fire - conducting gain-of-function experiments on humanized mice and coronaviruses. This research may or may not be weaponizable, but China was willing to try.

Unlike the US where a moratorium was put in place from 2014 to late 2017 after IIRC a National Academies report (the moratorium was lifted after setting up stricter controls, and no, it had nothing to do with the orange one).

Most likely, it was an accidental release.

Re: Ensuring a transparent, thorough investigation of Covid-19’s origin

#54

Post by [deleted] »

raphlinus wrote: post #20

I like Carl Bergstrom's take on this: I have reason to believe that if the outgoing administration claims to have reason to believe something but refuses to provide the evidence behind it, they are lying. https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1350292056782954498 Here's a very serious, legitimate review of the possible origins of SARS-CoV-2: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-01205-5 Unfortunately, from my e…

[deleted]

Re: Ensuring a transparent, thorough investigation of Covid-19’s origin

#55

Post by agnosticmantis »

jariel wrote: post #44
addicted wrote: post #21

"The COVID-19 pandemic was avoidable. Any responsible country would have invited world health investigators to Wuhan within days of an outbreak. China instead refused offers of help – including from the United States – and punished brave Chinese doctors, scientists, and journalists who tried to alert the world to the dangers of the virus. Beijing continues today to withhold vital information that scientists need to p…

It's not a political statement if it's factual. Or rather, it's 'always political between states' but the legitimacy of the facts give it credibility. China's initial dismissal and coverup of the spread of the virus, and their subsequent misinformation and lack of transparency, and finally, their attempts to stop an investigation into COVID origins are really seriously bad things . To boot - they've made a political…

> It's not a political statement if it's factual.

I think “The COVID-19 pandemic was avoidable. Any responsible country would have invited world health investigators to Wuhan within days of an outbreak.” is counterfactual by definition.

Re: Ensuring a transparent, thorough investigation of Covid-19’s origin

#56

Post by kbaker »

bertmuthalaly wrote: post #51
raphlinus wrote: post #20

I like Carl Bergstrom's take on this: I have reason to believe that if the outgoing administration claims to have reason to believe something but refuses to provide the evidence behind it, they are lying. https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1350292056782954498 Here's a very serious, legitimate review of the possible origins of SARS-CoV-2: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-01205-5 Unfortunately, from my e…

That paper is really frustrating - it seems to be written for laypeople like us, but conflates the theory that humans made a containment mistake and COVID escaped from a lab so (we should make research safer) with "COVID is an intentionally engineered bioweapon, so we should stop researching." And the most critical claim in the paper is not substantiated in any way: > Gain-of-function research is also subject to inte…

Thank you for writing this, I was just about to start writing up something similar. The linked paper might be 'serious' in tone but the claims are not convincing.

One of the best articles I have seen on the lab-made hypothesis is here:

https://yurideigin.medium.com/lab-made-cov2-genealogy-throug...

If you want to go down a more skeptical route, closer into conspiracy theories and Chinese politics, you can read some of the writings on this site:

https://nerdhaspower.weebly.com/blog/scientific-evidence-and...

Please, when reading these, keep your scientist hat on and evaluate the claims with an open mind.

That being said, if anyone has links to rebuttals of some of the key ideas behind these articles, or further evidence of natural origin beyond the Andersen et al Nature paper, please link it, I'd very much like to change my mind.

Re: Ensuring a transparent, thorough investigation of Covid-19’s origin

#57

Post by raphlinus »

throw3848 wrote: post #50
raphlinus wrote: post #20

I like Carl Bergstrom's take on this: I have reason to believe that if the outgoing administration claims to have reason to believe something but refuses to provide the evidence behind it, they are lying. https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1350292056782954498 Here's a very serious, legitimate review of the possible origins of SARS-CoV-2: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-01205-5 Unfortunately, from my e…

Maybe if authorities were a bit more neutral. Some plausible options were ruled out from day 1, without any investigation. And words like "empirical facts" and "independent review" in context of China, do not add much credibility. If virus has natural origin, we should be able to find population of infected bats. Until then it is just another unproven theory.

I should clarify, neither I nor Dr. Rasmussen are claiming that we know what the true origin is, or that zoonotic spillover is definitely what happened. There is not enough evidence to make such a definitive conclusion. I can see how people might read my comment as implicitly asserting that if people did understand the empirical facts they would come to the conclusion of zoonotic origin.

That said, there are facts, and they are relevant: the fact that COV RaTG13 has 96.2% similarity to SARS-COV-2. The incredible diversity of bat coronaviruses, and the fact that only fraction are studied and understood, despite serious study by the WIV.

Here's another good quote from another good thread: And investigating zoonotic origins can take decades, and you may NEVER find the "smoking bat" or whatever other intermediate species that may be involved. It's like looking for a needle in a planet-sized haystack. -- https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/13497545972759142...

The main point that I was trying to make, which I stand by, is that most people are going to base their beliefs about this question on essentially political considerations: do you trust the CCP or the US State Dept more? Unfortunately, both of those institutions have done terrible damage to objective scientific inquiry, and in my opinion neither one is really deserving of trust. Better to follow the science where it leads, but this is an often frustrating and time consuming process.

Re: Ensuring a transparent, thorough investigation of Covid-19’s origin

#58

Post by raphlinus »

kbaker wrote: post #56
bertmuthalaly wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That paper is really frustrating - it seems to be written for laypeople like us, but conflates the theory that humans made a containment mistake and COVID escaped from a lab so (we should make research safer) with "COVID is an intentionally engineered bioweapon, so we should stop researching." And the most critical claim in the paper is not substantiated in any way: > Gain-of-function research is also subject to inte…

Thank you for writing this, I was just about to start writing up something similar. The linked paper might be 'serious' in tone but the claims are not convincing. One of the best articles I have seen on the lab-made hypothesis is here: https://yurideigin.medium.com/lab-made-cov2-genealogy-throug... If you want to go down a more skeptical route, closer into conspiracy theories and Chinese politics, you can read some o…

Here's one such rebuttal: https://medium.com/@stoilov_77462/response-to-yuri-deigin-th...

Re: Ensuring a transparent, thorough investigation of Covid-19’s origin

#59

Post by peteretep »

ardy42 wrote: post #49
peteretep wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's literally been trying to stir up shit however it can to make things difficult for the incoming Biden administration Examples, please? Pompeo certainly taking a more hawkish and strident stance of late, but I’m yet to see anything that suggests they’re salting the earth rather than just trying to ram through some policy aims at the end of an administration

Jan. 9: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/09/us/politics/state-dept-ta... > WASHINGTON — The United States said on Saturday that it would relax its restrictions on interactions between American officials and their counterparts in Taiwan as the Trump administration seeks to lock in a tougher line against Beijing in its final days. > ...The moves, some outside experts said, are meant to lay a trap for Mr. Biden, forcing…

Only Cuba looks weird to me there. Normalising relationships with Taiwan is a great idea, and Iran stirs conflict throughout the region.

Re: Ensuring a transparent, thorough investigation of Covid-19’s origin

#60

Post by eunos »

When I read the "teaser" of this announcement in a few UK tabloids (Daily Mail/Telegraph), the title seems bombastic ("UK diplomats brace for Pompeo's bombshell" or something like that).

Yet for me the announcement seems lukewarm. The 3 points are rehash of theories that's been surfacing since March last year, it adds nothing new.

I assume the announcement is made because Pompeo's want to stay relevant and WHO team has just arrived in China.

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