Ensuring a transparent, thorough investigation of Covid-19’s origin

> If Pompeo is running for president in 2024, a war with Iran will benefit him in much the same way the war with Iraq (which was based on untrue claims) benefited Bush.

Was the war Dick Cheney started going years before Bush announced he was running? How would this be comparable at all to Bush/Iraq?

Personally I just give everything the Trump administration says high scrutiny. Just lie after lie, mistruth after mistruth, so that it's hard to believe anything that someone outside them doesn't back up. Especially on computer security... the absolute level of obvious falsehood and idiotic statements from Trump and his supporters about election security would be farcical if it wasn't so destructive to American democracy and democratic norms.

But I believe that, while legitimate election security researchers have all basically said there is no reason to doubt the election or believe there was any sort of widespread fraud or abuse (and such statements conform to what was said in court, where lawyers can face consequences for stating falsehoods), legitimate computer security researchers outside the Trump Administration have pointed to Russia on the Solarwinds hack, so I give that claim more credence.

There are a lot of anecdotal stories like these, but the idea that Covid was circulating widely in the US before January just isn't consistent with the evidence on the ground. Trevor Bedford has written about this several times [1], and he would know, the phylogenetic work he and his team have been doing is one of the most sensitive instruments we have in figuring out how this thing spreads.

So this basically boils down to who to trust, your friend's uncle who works at Nintendo, or a highly regarded evolutionary biologist.

[1]: https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1249414291297464321

Cheney was Secretary of Defense during the first Iraq war, under the elder Bush: https://history.defense.gov/Multimedia/Biographies/Article-V...

> After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Cheney worried about the dangers of nuclear proliferation and effective control of nuclear weapons from the Soviet nuclear arsenal that had come under the control of newly independent republics-Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan-as well as in Russia itself. Cheney warned about the possibility that other nations, such as Iraq, Iran, and North Korea, would acquire nuclear components after the Soviet collapse.

and later in that biography:

> A draft Defense Planning Guidance issued early in 1992 envisioned several scenarios in which the United States might have to fight two large regional wars at one time–for example, against Iraq again, against North Korea, or in Europe against a resurgent, expansionist Russia.

Come Cheney's vice presidency, there was all of a sudden talk about an "axis of evil" - Iraq, Iran, and North Korea.

Anyway, obviously Pompeo hasn't announced, but there is widespread speculation based on concrete actions by him - see e.g. https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2020-12-09/mi... - so I don't think it's unreasonable for me to say "If Pompeo is running."

And the most direct way it would be comparable to Bush/Iraq is that it would falsely allege that al-Qaeda is linked to the government of a Middle Eastern country and use it as an excuse for regime change in that country.

Jan. 9:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/09/us/politics/state-dept-ta...

> WASHINGTON — The United States said on Saturday that it would relax its restrictions on interactions between American officials and their counterparts in Taiwan as the Trump administration seeks to lock in a tougher line against Beijing in its final days.

> ...The moves, some outside experts said, are meant to lay a trap for Mr. Biden, forcing him either to pay a domestic political cost if he unwinds them or to sour relations with Beijing if he does not.

Jan. 11:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/11/us/politics/cuba-terroris...

> WASHINGTON — The State Department designated Cuba a state sponsor of terrorism on Monday in a last-minute foreign policy stroke that will complicate the incoming Biden administration’s plans to restore friendlier relations with Havana.

> ...On the campaign trail, President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. spoke of a return to Mr. Obama’s more open approach to Havana, pledging to “promptly reverse the failed Trump policies that have inflicted harm on the Cuban people and done nothing to advance democracy and human rights.”

> While the Biden administration can remove Cuba from the terrorism list, doing so will require a review process that could take months.

Jan 12:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/12/us/politics/pompeo-iran-q...

> WASHINGTON — Al Qaeda’s new base of operations is in Iran, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Tuesday, using his last days in office to tie together two of what he called the world’s greatest terrorism threats but offering no underlying intelligence as evidence.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/14/opinion/mike-pompeo-state...

> But Mr. Pompeo has not been idle. Over the past week, he unleashed a series of actions whose only real purpose appears to be to make life as difficult as possible for his successor at the State Department. He put Cuba back on the list of state sponsors of terrorism, he plans to designate the Houthi rebels in Yemen as a foreign terrorist organization, he eased restrictions on contacts between American diplomats and Taiwan officials and he claimed that Iran is a “home base” for Al Qaeda.

> ...Some of the actions Mr. Pompeo took over the past week might be defensible, were they taken in the context of a coherent foreign policy. But coming days before a change in administration, their sole identifiable purpose is to maliciously plant obstacles — some commentators have called them time bombs or booby traps — before the incoming administration and President-elect Joe Biden’s choice for Mr. Pompeo’s successor at State, Antony Blinken, are in place.