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Nearly 8M Americans have fallen into poverty since summer

washingtonpost.com

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Re: Nearly 8M Americans have fallen into poverty since summer

#51

Post by t-writescode »

neuland wrote: post #12
t-writescode wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most reasonable people that asked for lockdowns also asked for stimulus packages to give those people who couldn't work money while they're out of work so they could survive.

And yet they didn't stop the lockdowns once it was clear the stimulus was not going to happen.

Given a virus that requires hospitalization at a certain rate, there is a certain point where the hospitals end up overrun for all other activities.

In an effort to stave off that danger, local governments enacted lockdowns with the intent of reducing the spread of the virus.

The virus, in the United States, has an established death rate of around 1.5% and a hospitalization rate higher than that.

It also experiences exponential growth.

Our hospitals didn't have the capacity to handle all the _potential_ load; and, once they're approaching that capacity, it's already too late and they'll blow past it. That's the danger of exponential growth.

Let's imagine doublings:

1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128.

If total capacity is 100, the moment that capacity is less than 20% used up, we're 2-3 timesteps away from using over 100%. It is a very dangerous gamble, and controversial decisions are made or not made and the worst part is that, when you do the safe thing, you have no way of being certain or explaining that the bad thing would have or could have happened, because "it's only 20%" and that looks small.

Re: Nearly 8M Americans have fallen into poverty since summer

#52

Post by uoaei »

just-juan-post wrote: post #34
dopylitty wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue is that the US government has refused to help people during a time when they should absolutely not be forced to work face to face jobs to pay the bills. Instead Republicans have held aid hostage in exchange for legislation allowing businesses to force employees to work in unsafe environments with no recourse[1]. Even so far as a measure that would allow the US attorney general to penalized employees up to $…

Wrong. A reminder that Nancy Pelosi turned down not one but two $1 trillion+ stimulus offer from the White House before the election. Trump makes $1.8 trillion economic relief offer, but deal with Pelosi remains elusive (Oct 09 2020) https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/10/09/trump-ec... Nancy Pelosi blasts the White House's $1.6 trillion stimulus plan, saying it's not even 'half a loaf' (Oct 01 2020) https:…

I notice folks getting starry-eyed in the face of these big numbers.

But if you look at how that money is allocated, it won't be very good for anyone except those who are milking this crisis for all they can.

The bill needs to be much bigger to have any considerable impact.

Remember -- the economy only works if people are spending money, and people are only spending money when they have money in their pockets. Trickle-up economics is real and it works.

Re: Nearly 8M Americans have fallen into poverty since summer

#53

Post by anovikov »

I wonder how anyone at all expected this to turn out. So, businesses had to stop operating. GDP and income earned and spent, dropped. This by definition results in someone becoming poor - with or without bailout - the government does not have any of "its own" money - all money it can possibly distribute is taken from taxpayer's pockets.

Call me cynical, but people working in the service industry were the safest ones to let fail without causing domino effect - they are already poor so they don't have mortgages to default onto - they can't afford even in good times - and that avoids a major risk of repeating 2008.

Re: Nearly 8M Americans have fallen into poverty since summer

#54

Post by djsumdog »

hn_asker wrote: post #23

We need UBI

I use to believe in UBI, but I think introducing UBI now would be an absolutely and complete disaster. UBI makes sense if there is zero resource scarcity. If we had working Fission reactors and were pulling asteroids into orbit to mine, it might make sense.

I think UBI implemented now would turn into the "Basic" seen in The Expanse books. We'd just see people with no incentives continue down the road of poverty.

Re: Nearly 8M Americans have fallen into poverty since summer

#55

Post by uoaei »

neuland wrote: post #12
t-writescode wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most reasonable people that asked for lockdowns also asked for stimulus packages to give those people who couldn't work money while they're out of work so they could survive.

And yet they didn't stop the lockdowns once it was clear the stimulus was not going to happen.

I don't see how that would be a reason to stop the lockdowns. Remember that there is a severe respiratory contagion going around that spreads from breathing the same air as infected folks.

Re: Nearly 8M Americans have fallen into poverty since summer

#56

Post by NicoJuicy »

TheBlight wrote: post #42

I sure do hate it when I slip and fall into poverty as if it were some silly accident of my own making and not entirely caused by the actions of state and local governments.

You are that saying herd immunity would be the only option?

Re: Nearly 8M Americans have fallen into poverty since summer

#57

Post by uoaei »

djsumdog wrote: post #54
hn_asker wrote: post #23

We need UBI

I use to believe in UBI, but I think introducing UBI now would be an absolutely and complete disaster. UBI makes sense if there is zero resource scarcity. If we had working Fission reactors and were pulling asteroids into orbit to mine, it might make sense. I think UBI implemented now would turn into the "Basic" seen in The Expanse books. We'd just see people with no incentives continue down the road of poverty.

Yours is a Randian analysis and it has been the sole argument from Republicans for not giving people UBI.

What do you think about the concept of "trickle-up economics"?

Re: Nearly 8M Americans have fallen into poverty since summer

#58

Post by [deleted] »

anovikov wrote: post #53

I wonder how anyone at all expected this to turn out. So, businesses had to stop operating. GDP and income earned and spent, dropped. This by definition results in someone becoming poor - with or without bailout - the government does not have any of "its own" money - all money it can possibly distribute is taken from taxpayer's pockets. Call me cynical, but people working in the service industry were the safest ones…

[deleted]

Re: Nearly 8M Americans have fallen into poverty since summer

#59

Post by lilott8 »

hypervisorxxx wrote: post #26

Yeh in some cases. In others what is poverty. Moving back in with your parents so not having an income but also not having to pay rent. Alot of people I know in NYC have just chosen not to pay rent and are not being evicted so they are living in poverty but in fancy areas of brooklyn and not having to work. Poverty to me is being homeless despite working and your income doesn't or barely covers the bills. In the covi…

This reads sort of tone deaf to me. There is a clear definition of what it means to be impoverished. In the US it's income relative to dependents, [defined by HHS](https://aspe.hhs.gov/poverty-guidelines). TO say that someone isn't impoverished because they are living rent-free (legally or illegally) or don't have obligations to pay bills misses the point altogether; and quite frankly, is flat out insincere. It doesn't matter if the child moves back in with their parent and doesn't have bills to pay. I'm curious to know, what if the person that loses their job is 40 and moves in with their parents? My point is, I don't think it matters if it's a child moving in to their parent's second house -- they may never be able to recover from this, and that is the larger, systemic problem at hand.

How we, as a collective society, address issues pertaining to the poor, disenfranchised, forgotten, downtrodden, speaks volumes about our priorities and interests. And I think, given the types of relief that has happened during this moment, and looking at how society answers this historically, we are not doing well.

Re: Nearly 8M Americans have fallen into poverty since summer

#60

Post by cinquemb »

anovikov wrote: post #53

I wonder how anyone at all expected this to turn out. So, businesses had to stop operating. GDP and income earned and spent, dropped. This by definition results in someone becoming poor - with or without bailout - the government does not have any of "its own" money - all money it can possibly distribute is taken from taxpayer's pockets. Call me cynical, but people working in the service industry were the safest ones…

> they are already poor so they don't have mortgages to default onto - they can't afford even in good times - and that avoids a major risk of repeating 2008.

Yeah, well you are forgetting the people they were renting from have mortgages… 2008 will be a cake walk compared to this… can't "extend and pretend" forever…

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