Why did renewables become so cheap so fast? • Hacker News Board

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#51

Post by km3r » Wed, Dec 02, 2020, 9:48 PM UTC

The graph shows solar becoming on par/ slightly cheaper then oil/gas/coal solutions over the past decade. If this trend continues we may see an energy revolution take place in the next 10-20 years. Data center costs will dive down, more places will become livable with always on AC/heating. Even inefficient energy storage becomes viable with low enough prices (if solar is 70% cheaper than gas, then it can still compete with gas at night if the energy storage is more than 30% efficient or so, when in reality storage is close to 70-80% efficient). Humanity as a whole might even make it to a Type 1 Civilization with our increased usage. Carbon capturing even becomes a viable solution to climate change.

Just as rapidly changing CPU and internet speeds changed the world over the past few decades, so too will an energy revolution. I look forward to this new world and how we can use the innovations to solve todays problems.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#52

Post by marshray » Wed, Dec 02, 2020, 9:50 PM UTC

shoguning wrote: post #38

BurningFrog wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It does mention this briefly in the Batteries and electricity storage follow learning curves too section.

Yeah, that is mentioned as "one of the downsides of renewables". That is like saying, "one of the downsides of using a cooked noodle as a fork is that it doesn't hold its shape". It's disqualifying until that issue is sorted. The value of solar right now is that it provides energy at the hottest, most energy use part of the day. But there is a tipping point where marginal solar is not really valuable for a grid anymo…

> But there is a tipping point where marginal solar is not really valuable for a grid anymore.

And that is a very good problem to have.

There are any number of industrial processes that could easily put that excessively cheap energy to use. Aluminum smelting, for example.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#53

Post by ljlolel » Wed, Dec 02, 2020, 9:51 PM UTC

BurningFrog wrote: post #25

bregma wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Running a power cable across the Pacific is going to be rife with expensive engineering problems, but sure, you could send electrons from Three Gorges to Google at some cost. I wouldn't call it cheaper, though.

In the spirit of "Never underestimate the bandwidth of a station wagon full of tapes hurtling down the highway." I wonder if shipping big piles of fully charged batteries around has any chance of being a practical power distribution method?

A 747 as a giant lithium battery with wings

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#54

Post by matthias509 » Wed, Dec 02, 2020, 9:52 PM UTC

the_economist wrote: post #6

BurningFrog wrote: post #3

So fossil fuels, at least for power generation, is already obsolete. Fantastic! Since the power plant replacement cycle is much slower than for phones, it will take a while to propagate the shift, but it is already inevitable.

There's still the problem of what to do between 4pm and 8 am on a day without wind, which means we won't be able to shut down too many power plants until cheap energy storage exists.

Maybe use excess electricity to produce hydrogen using electrolysis and then burn it in a turbine later?

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#55

Post by red75prime » Wed, Dec 02, 2020, 9:52 PM UTC

simongr3dal wrote: post #23

gruez wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You really want to be dependent on other countries for your vital infrastructure? Imagine if we go to war with china/russia, and they shut down energy exports to the US causing rolling blackouts everywhere.

Then get your electricity nationaly, or from france, or from germany, or from saudi arabia, or from australia, or from argentina. The point of a global energy grid would be that there's always sun and wind somewhere on the planet and you would smooth out time-of-day differences in usage. The point is NOT to outsource your country's entire electricity production.

Magnetic field of power cables is easily detectable and you can't realistically defend thousands miles of them.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#56

Post by marshray » Wed, Dec 02, 2020, 9:54 PM UTC

outworlder wrote: post #48

the_economist wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's still the problem of what to do between 4pm and 8 am on a day without wind, which means we won't be able to shut down too many power plants until cheap energy storage exists.

Solar beamed power from orbital facilities?

Beaming power from space has huge losses, and I really don't think we need to a system of remote-controlled death rays orbiting the planet right now.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#57

Post by bryanlarsen » Wed, Dec 02, 2020, 9:54 PM UTC

ed25519FUUU wrote: post #39

Confronting and solving the duck curve[1] and producing high duty-cycle electricity during non-sunlight hours is going to be a real challenge. We're at the point now where states will often pay other states to take excess renewable electricity during peak hours. What's the point in cheaper when we're already effectively throwing away electricity? I personally don't believe batteries are going to do it. The world need…

The listed nuclear price is $155/MWh. But that's for baseload power, which can't replace batteries. What's needed is dispatchable or on-demand power, which costs about 3x as much for gas, I have no idea how much it inflates the price for nuclear, but the answer will be "a lot".

Nuclear in 2020 doesn't make any sense. It's far cheaper to over-provision and use storage.

We should have been building nuclear like crazy over the past 40 years. Then it could have followed a similar learning curve that renewables did and it'd still make sense today.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#58

Post by ed25519FUUU » Wed, Dec 02, 2020, 10:02 PM UTC

bryanlarsen wrote: post #57

ed25519FUUU wrote: post #39

Confronting and solving the duck curve[1] and producing high duty-cycle electricity during non-sunlight hours is going to be a real challenge. We're at the point now where states will often pay other states to take excess renewable electricity during peak hours. What's the point in cheaper when we're already effectively throwing away electricity? I personally don't believe batteries are going to do it. The world need…

The listed nuclear price is $155/MWh. But that's for baseload power, which can't replace batteries. What's needed is dispatchable or on-demand power, which costs about 3x as much for gas, I have no idea how much it inflates the price for nuclear, but the answer will be "a lot". Nuclear in 2020 doesn't make any sense. It's far cheaper to over-provision and use storage. We should have been building nuclear like crazy o…

> The listed nuclear price is $155/MWh.

Getting the price down for nuclear construction and maintenance is important. Keep in mind that these plants were built in the 80s or earlier.

> Nuclear in 2020 doesn't make any sense. It's far cheaper to over-provision and use storage.

What storage? That's the point. You can listen to what Bill Gates said about this last year: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xe3BWPsBTU

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#59

Post by davidwitt415 » Wed, Dec 02, 2020, 10:07 PM UTC

bregma wrote: post #12

The article says the world relies on fossil fuel for energy because it's cheaper. That's true. It doesn't mention that the world relies on it because it's reliable. It doesn't disappear for 6 months of the year, or stop producing for 3 out of 5 days or during peak demand periods. Make renewables cheaper and more reliable and they will replace fossil fuels in a snap. Cheaper is not enough if it doesn't do the job.

RTFA:

Batteries and electricity storage follow learning curves too One of the downsides of renewable sources is their intermittent supply cycle. The sun doesn’t always shine and the wind doesn’t always blow. Technologies like batteries that store electric power are key to balance the changing supply from renewables with the inflexible demand for electricity.

Fortunately electricity storage technologies are also among the few technologies that are following steeply declining learning curves.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#60

Post by hypertele-Xii » Wed, Dec 02, 2020, 10:09 PM UTC

jpollock wrote: post #33

hypertele-Xii wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in Finland next to a hydroelectric dam. Electricity is, at worst, like 200 bucks a month. More than half the cost is transport. The dam is less than 15km out. What a ripoff. Privatizing the electric grid would make electricity cheaper, they said.

Even though you're 15km from a primary source, the network is built to provide you electricity even if that source is down. That requires connections to generators much further away. It's the uptime that adds costs.

The privatized electric grid companies were granted permission to raise prices for funding grid expansion. A later audit discovered that they pocketed 90% of the raise. (the expansion cost only 10%)

Even closer than the hydro dam there's a waste incinerator plant 3km from my home. Even if the hydro wasn't 100% reliable which of course it isn't (the channel is drained occasionally for maintenance), they can burn trash at any time to make up the difference. On some days there's a funny smell in the air.

It's greed that adds to these costs.