Science without Validation in a World without Meaning

> The parameter space is immense

This. This. This.

I've seen claims that the number of parameters in the Imperial College agent-based model was c.a. 400. Perhaps it was 40.

Compare to a quadratic or quartic fit to some log-lin data. If you have to represent your ratio of poorly-constrained model parameters (40 or 400) to apparently necessary parameters (say 4) _using Big-O notation_, then science has arguably left the premises.

I don’t think you understand. The “people” in my statement are not politicians, they are charlatans, whining whenever their uncertain theories are not used by politicians to dictate how everyone must behave, which according to some mental gymnastics ought to happen because their theories are dressed up in an outdated notion of “science”. It is pernicious fascist bullshit, but thankfully it will fail.

The HCQ thing is a complete shit show, it has been politicized to the point where everyone pretty much just says whatever they want about it. It might be helpful as a prophylactic or with milder cases (when used in smaller doses). Other studies gave higher doses to severely ill patients and it did not help. Anyway, not trying to start another argument over this, but there is a vigorous argument still going on. A couple hundred professionals signed this open letter: https://zenodo.org/record/3871094

This article meanders too much. The basic point is this:

> While stochastic models present us with numerous difficulties, an even more perplexing conundrum faces contemporary scientists and engineers who wish to model highly complex systems involving hundreds or thousands of variables and model parameters. Owing to their sheer number, many model parameters cannot be accurately estimated via experiment and are left uncertain. As a consequence of uncertainty, for each different set of possible values for the unknown parameters, there is a different model—possibly an infinite number of models.

> Confronting the problems of complexity, validation, and model uncertainty, I have previously identified four options for moving ahead: (1) dispense with modeling complex systems that cannot be validated; (2) model complex systems and pretend they are validated; (3) model complex systems, admit that the models are not validated, use them pragmatically where possible, and be extremely cautious when interpreting them; (4) strive to develop a new and perhaps weaker scientific epistemology.

At the moment I am in favor of option 3, though option 4 might be more appealing in the future.

This isn't an easy option to take. Recently I had an article accepted for publication where I basically argued that no models, including my own, were truly validated because none fit a non-naive data set well. (In another paper I argued that most data sets used for validation are too easy to match because they don't cover the parameter space well.) A reviewer recommended rejection, basically saying that because the model isn't validated, it shouldn't be published. So much for being intellectually honest!

The paper was eventually accepted after I made it more clear that none of the popular models work that well (some are absolutely terrible in my view), and that my model improves on the status quo in a few ways.

Note that this situation isn't exactly the same as that described in the link. In the case of my article, I think we can get enough data to validate a model. We just don't have that data at present.

>No, a "subsidy" is not the same as a purchase.

Did I a say "subsidy" was the same as a purchase? Not sure what you're getting at.

>Purchasing something at whatever the current market price is is just a purchase.

Um. It's a purchase. It can also be a subsidy and generally is when the government does it. If the government purchases a bunch of oranges to give away (or throw in the gutter) it is subsidizing the orange market. Are you not familiar with how government subsidies work in general?

>Fixing prices at lower than the current market price, and making up the difference in various hidden ways, which is what the government does with fossil fuels, is a subsidy.

There are lots of ways to subsidize things. Almost everything (or maybe absolutely everything) the government does creates a subsidy of some kind.

>No, it's an enormous investment in transportation infrastructure for the benefit of everyone.

It's not for the benefit of everyone though. Car-centric life obviously is not very healthy, so it's not healthy for the general public to subsidize this. More importantly, it creates dangerous externalities for people that walk, bike, etc.

It heavily subsidizes unsustainable suburban modes of living, etc. Can you imagine the shitfit people in Kentucky would have if they had to fund their own roads?

>Which benefits all transportation technologies.

Wat? How does building a 20 lane highway in Houston benefit bikers? It doesn't. It actively harms them.

How does building a road to Dingleberry Alabama benefit people that ride the subway in DC (or want to ride a subway in Alabama)? It doesn't.

>Unless you think that hybrid or electric or fuel cell or solar powered vehicles are somehow unable to use the same roads?

Again, this is taking kind of an autistic view. In theory, yes my fart-powered car can use the roads. In practice, since 99% of cars are powered by carbon, we know that a road subsidy benefits carbon users 99% of the time.

>Which is a non-answer unless you know, with sufficient confidence based on scientific knowledge (not somebody's beliefs or speculations or hypotheses), the amount of the externality and who can address it at the lowest cost.

Huh? Why would we need to know this? If my neighbor is pumping carbon dioxide into my living room, I don't need to do any calculus or science to know that (a) he's wrong and (b) he needs to stop. That is a problem that markets can't solve.

Why would we need to know the person that can do it at the lowest cost? The person doing the bad behavior should bear the cost regardless of who the lowest cost avoider is.

>Which nobody knows for the case of CO2 emissions.

We know a lot about the costs of C02 emissions. It's ridiculous to say we need to have perfect solutions before we can push back on our current failed "solution".

>First, government solutions are violent: the government can dictate what everybody does only because it can back up what it says with violence if necessary.

Absolutely. That's a huge role of the government. If some asshole is pumping carbon dioxide into my living room, the government needs to correct his behavior. If a strongly worded letter doesn't do it, violent action must (ethically) be taken to correct the situation.

>Second, you ignore the obvious third alternative: give people a better option in the market.

I'm not sure why you think I ignored this. I have literally written books on market solutions. But they can't solve everything.

>If the government did not subsidize fossil fuels, gasoline would be more expensive and more people would be buying cars that used less, or no, gasoline.

But you would still have too many people buying. You need to read up on externalities.

>No need to use force on anyone.

Yes need to use force. This is econ 101. When you have an activity that forces negative externalities onto third parties without compensation, you get sub-optimal levels of that activity. When you don't bear the full cost for polluting the air I breath (this is very well documented stuff here) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3155438/, then you'll tend to create sub-optimal levels of pollution that wouldn't exist if you had to bear those costs.

>And if there were more entrepreneurs figuring out how to build cars that used less, or no, gasoline, they would get cheaper.

This helps but doesn't fix the problem.

>That is true even for the SUVs that you apparently abhor: a hybrid SUV can easily get double the gas mileage of a conventional one. But with gas as cheap as it is now due to government subsidies, the added cost of the hybrid simply doesn't pay for itself over the life of the vehicle.

Even without government subsidies, gas is extremely cheap.

>What I have said is that dictating a public policy to everyone requires a well-supported scientific rationale, or at least a much higher standard for one than has been used.

This is the part you still aren't addressing: We are already dictating a public policy to everyone without any scientific support whatsoever.

>Then we simply disagree. You think this claim has a well-supported scientific rationale. I don't. I think it's a combination of ideological beliefs, speculations, and hypotheses, with no predictive track record to back it up. So I don't think dictating public policy on this basis is justified. If you want to base your own choices on it, go ahead.

You're misunderstanding. You are saying that the public policy you like (lets keep it simple and say "Ford Excursions") doesn't need any scientific backing whatsoever. But the public policy I like (lets say "bikes") somehow requires a "well-supported scientific rational". You need to explain this difference. Under your system, our current policies are also not justifiable (nor are the policies you are advocating for).

>You're misstating the alternatives. The alternatives for public policy are not "keep burning carbon at current rates" vs. "burn less carbon". The alternatives for public policy are "allow people to make their own decisions about burning carbon" vs. "dictate everyone's carbon burning activities by force".

You are ignoring externalities. This line of thinking is fine for activities that don't harm others. It doesn't work if there are externalities. Unless you think I should be able to forcibly go stop my neighbor from polluting, you still haven't solved the problem.

>The former does not need a well-supported scientific rationale. The latter does.

You can't just say this without justification. Or you can, and I can too:

The former needs a well-supported scientific rationale. The latter does not.

How about that?