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Science without Validation in a World without Meaning

americanaffairsjournal.org

31–40 of 127 posts

Re: Science without Validation in a World without Meaning

#31
post #11

An article by an electrical engineer, published in a political journal, about climate change... I had low hopes, which were met. IMO few categories of professions have a harder time understanding cutting-edge science than engineers. That is because they think they know science because they use similar mathematical and technical tools, when in fact the professions do the exact opposite of one another. Engineers use wh…

Corollary: Climate science models should be built by engineers, not by scientists. Task people who 'use what is known and understood to construct systems that can be validated'. Perhaps the whole scientist-as-faux-priest meme should be toned down a notch.

This notion seems to incorrectly represent what climate science models are and how they are developed. If there were some way to "validate" them that everyone could generally agree upon, it would be possible to move this work to the domain of engineering. But each climate model varies quite a lot in its structure, dynamical equations, what simplifications it makes for numerical tractability, use of datasets and how to map them to model parameters. The role of climate scientists is to hash out which models are more sensible than others and to push the boundaries of accuracy and certainty with new methodologies.

This is why the best we can do from a policy perspective at the moment is model aggregation: that is taking tens of models computed by various research teams and combining them into policy recommendations along with uncertainty brackets. Distilling the state of current research into a policy digest is the role of the International Panel on Climate Change, which is currently in their sixth iteration of this process. You can keep up to date and read previous reports here. https://www.ipcc.ch/

Re: Science without Validation in a World without Meaning

#32
post #31
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Corollary: Climate science models should be built by engineers, not by scientists. Task people who 'use what is known and understood to construct systems that can be validated'. Perhaps the whole scientist-as-faux-priest meme should be toned down a notch.

This notion seems to incorrectly represent what climate science models are and how they are developed. If there were some way to "validate" them that everyone could generally agree upon, it would be possible to move this work to the domain of engineering. But each climate model varies quite a lot in its structure, dynamical equations, what simplifications it makes for numerical tractability, use of datasets and how t…

If they are anywhere nearly as sensitive to 'bayesian priors', aka parameters made up of full cloth, as the covid19 models, then I take a hard pass.

Edit: Perhaps that was a bit too much of an 'in jest' reply. I'm frustrated at the whole mathematical rituals schtick, when in reality the whole thing is at best an unfalsifiable qualitative guess. The parameter space is immense, and we only have 1 measurable trajectory through it for validation.

Re: Science without Validation in a World without Meaning

#33
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Waiting until we're more sure about something" is not actually waiting, it is an affirmative decision to disregard what we think we know right now. No, it's an affirmative choice to not impose a public policy on everyone based on what we think we know right now. And often that is the right choice. > To make such an argument requires attacking that knowledge directly, showing specifically how it's wrong. Not just v…

>No, it's an affirmative choice to not impose a public policy on everyone based on what we think we know right now. You're either misunderstanding his point or misunderstanding reality. Our public policy today endorses (and heavily subsidizes) the burning of carbon on a scale never before tested. Why should the default position be to subsidize this as opposed to alternative means? Or are you arguing that we should be…

> Why should the default position be to subsidize this as opposed to alternative means?

I don't think the government should be subsidizing any energy sources or playing favorites with certain sources over others. That applies just as much to playing favorites in favor of "alternative" energy sources as to playing favorites in favor of oil, coal, and natural gas. (Actually the government subsidizes all of these.)

However, that has nothing to do with any beliefs about the relative risks of different energy sources. It has to do with a belief that government subsidizing anything or playing favorites in general is likely to do more harm than good. In other words, the government does not have reliable enough knowledge to justify favoring any energy source over any other, so it shouldn't.

> It's clearly unsustainable, but let's set that aside.

No, let's not. Let's ask, instead, why you apparently believe that the only way to fix anything that is "unsustainable" is government policy. Why not just let the market work? If governments would stop subsiziding fossil fuels, their prices would be higher, and there would be more market pressure to find alternatives. Just as we found alternatives to horses that saved us from the "unsustainable" practice in the late 19th century of using horses for transportation, which, if that had gone on the same way, would have us all by now, as the saying goes, knee deep in horsesxxt. (And people were predicting exactly that at the time.)

> It's not an argument to say "this is how we done things for a long time so this way doesn't need to be supported by science." That's illogical.

No, it's not, it's a fact of life. Most of the things we currently do are not "supported by science". We do not have well-supported scientific rationales for most of our current activities. That's because we don't have a good scientific understanding of the relevant domains for most of our current activities. But just stopping all of our current activities that aren't "supported by science" is not a viable alternative, never has been, and never will be. So it's you that is being illogical, not me.

Re: Science without Validation in a World without Meaning

#34
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Waiting until we're more sure about something" is not actually waiting, it is an affirmative decision to disregard what we think we know right now. No, it's an affirmative choice to not impose a public policy on everyone based on what we think we know right now. And often that is the right choice. > To make such an argument requires attacking that knowledge directly, showing specifically how it's wrong. Not just v…

Everyone is already under the imposition of public policy, right now. Today's society is not neutral just because it is today. Edit to add: the public policy imposed on us today is based on what we thought we knew back when it was put in place.

> Everyone is already under the imposition of public policy, right now.

To the extent that this is true, it is, IMO, mostly a bug, not a feature.

> the public policy imposed on us today is based on what we thought we knew back when it was put in place.

If you seriously believe the public policies we have today were all based on the best current knowledge at the time they were put in place, all I can say is that you have a most charming naivete.

Re: Science without Validation in a World without Meaning

#35
post #25
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Waiting until we're more sure about something" is not actually waiting, it is an affirmative decision to disregard what we think we know right now. No, it's an affirmative choice to not impose a public policy on everyone based on what we think we know right now. And often that is the right choice. > To make such an argument requires attacking that knowledge directly, showing specifically how it's wrong. Not just v…

Hum, I think both of you provide a good point. Ultimately though, I have to agree with snowwrestler, public policy often needs to make a decision with incomplete information. There's probably a middle ground here, I'd say having 70% of the information, something like that. Otherwise, it is too slow to act to prevent future problems. In that regard, I feel it's best paralleled with business. Business decisions are oft…

> public policy often needs to make a decision with incomplete information

I disagree. Individual people and businesses often need to make decisions with incomplete information, but individual people's or businesses' decisions are only about their own actions, not about everybody else's. But public policy decisions affect everybody, so the criterion needs to be a lot stricter for how complete the information needs to be and how confident we need to be in our knowledge before we impose a public policy on everybody.

> You've got to take calculated risks sometimes.

The idea that public "leaders" should be able to take calculated risks with everybody else's money (and lives) is, IMO, pernicious. This is exactly the mentality that has created so much mess in the world throughout history. No, "leaders" should not take calculated risks that affect everybody.

Re: Science without Validation in a World without Meaning

#36
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hum, I think both of you provide a good point. Ultimately though, I have to agree with snowwrestler, public policy often needs to make a decision with incomplete information. There's probably a middle ground here, I'd say having 70% of the information, something like that. Otherwise, it is too slow to act to prevent future problems. In that regard, I feel it's best paralleled with business. Business decisions are oft…

I think only snowwrestler has a good point. "Waiting for the science" is the same as saying "we know for a fact that burning carbon is safe" if both of those result in burning unsustainable amounts of carbon. >I'd say having 70% of the information, something like that. This is still missing the point. This means that you need only 31% of science to continue burning carbon, but you need 70% to stop burning carbon. You…

> If you say "let's wait" you're saying "it's safe to keep doing what we're doing" even though you don't have any justification for that.

As I responded elsewhere in this thread, by this criterion, we should stop pretty much everything we are doing. Which is not a viable option, never has been, and never will be.

Re: Science without Validation in a World without Meaning

#37

I could use a TLDR on this one ...

We can't easily validate models of reality that are complex/stochastic, because any experimental result could be a statistical anomaly. In particular this is a problem for models of long-term and/or global phenomena like climate or public health, since we only get one "experimental run", so to speak. Therefore:

> Confronting the problems of complexity, validation, and model uncertainty, I have previously identified four options for moving ahead: (1) dispense with modeling complex systems that cannot be validated; (2) model complex systems and pretend they are validated; (3) model complex systems, admit that the models are not validated, use them pragmatically where possible, and be extremely cautious when interpreting them; (4) strive to develop a new and perhaps weaker scientific epistemology.

Re: Science without Validation in a World without Meaning

#38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I want to be clear that I'm not intending to make a value judgment, like scientists are better than engineers or vice versa. And I agree that it's not about degrees; people with engineering degrees work in science and vice versa.

Well, the following seems fairly harsh to me, and I would recommend rephrasing it: > IMO few categories of professions have a harder time understanding cutting-edge science than engineers. That is because they think they know science because they use similar mathematical and technical tools, when in fact the professions do the exact opposite of one another. The wording "few categories" in particular seems hyperbolic.…

My take is that GP simply doesn’t have any experience with engineering research.

Re: Science without Validation in a World without Meaning

#39
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone is already under the imposition of public policy, right now. Today's society is not neutral just because it is today. Edit to add: the public policy imposed on us today is based on what we thought we knew back when it was put in place.

> Everyone is already under the imposition of public policy, right now. To the extent that this is true, it is, IMO, mostly a bug, not a feature. > the public policy imposed on us today is based on what we thought we knew back when it was put in place. If you seriously believe the public policies we have today were all based on the best current knowledge at the time they were put in place, all I can say is that you h…

I don't think I claimed they were based on "best current knowledge," but I hope we can agree that is an ideal to aspire to.

Re: Science without Validation in a World without Meaning

#40
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>No, it's an affirmative choice to not impose a public policy on everyone based on what we think we know right now. You're either misunderstanding his point or misunderstanding reality. Our public policy today endorses (and heavily subsidizes) the burning of carbon on a scale never before tested. Why should the default position be to subsidize this as opposed to alternative means? Or are you arguing that we should be…

> Why should the default position be to subsidize this as opposed to alternative means? I don't think the government should be subsidizing any energy sources or playing favorites with certain sources over others. That applies just as much to playing favorites in favor of "alternative" energy sources as to playing favorites in favor of oil, coal, and natural gas. (Actually the government subsidizes all of these.) Howe…

>I don't think the government should be subsidizing any energy sources or playing favorites with certain sources over others. That applies just as much to playing favorites in favor of "alternative" energy sources as to playing favorites in favor of oil, coal, and natural gas. (Actually the government subsidizes all of these.)

This is not possible. You might be misunderstanding how subsidies work. Everything the government does is a subsidy of something or other. Building out roads nice new roads in every podunk town in America is an enormous subsidy to oil. Allowing people to pollute my air with carbon is an enormous subsidy to oil. Again, it is literally impossible to be agnostic.

>No, let's not. Let's ask, instead, why you apparently believe that the only way to fix anything that is "unsustainable" is government policy.

Where on earth do you get the idea that I think this?

>Why not just let the market work?

Externalities. Unless you start making all carbon users bear all costs associated with their carbon use, I have to bear that cost for them. The market can't sort that out unless I can forcibly stop other people's carbon use myself. In that case, we would have a violent solution, not a market solution. Governments is justifiable largely on the grounds that it replaces the need for these violent solutions.

>If governments would stop subsiziding fossil fuels, their prices would be higher, and there would be more market pressure to find alternatives.

Agree.

>Just as we found alternatives to horses that saved us from the "unsustainable" practice in the late 19th century of using horses for transportation, which, if that had gone on the same way, would have us all by now, as the saying goes, knee deep in horsesxxt.

This move had nothing to do with global sustainability. It had to do with scalability, user friendliness, etc.

>No, it's not, it's a fact of life. Most of the things we currently do are not "supported by science".

Agreed. So the question is why do you think some policies (like burning carbon) are justifiable without science. While others (like not burning carbon) need more science? You haven't justified this asymmetry.

>We do not have well-supported scientific rationales for most of our current activities.

Exactly. So why do you think we need well-supported scientific rationales for new activities?

>That's because we don't have a good scientific understanding of the relevant domains for most of our current activities.

Absolutely agree. You're talking common sense here.

>But just stopping all of our current activities that aren't "supported by science" is not a viable alternative,

And no one is arguing we should. But pretending that we can continue burning carbon at current rates (without any scientific support for this) is not in any way more justifiable than saying "we need to start burning less carbon".

>So it's you that is being illogical, not me.

Nope. It's you. We can't keep burning carbon the way we are and there's no reason to think we can. There are better reasons to think we can't.

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