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Bolsonaro fires health minister, calls to reopen economy

reuters.com

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Re: Bolsonaro fires health minister, calls to reopen economy

#51

Post by TheSpiceIsLife »

aphroz wrote: post #29
simmanian wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, if you just google "covid death tolls" you'll see 34,386 deaths in USA alone that we know of. Considering a lot of COVID patients don't even get diagnosed the real number is likely higher. Isn't that enough?

How many of these would have died anyway, I am asking about the difference in numbers, not a feeling.

I'm interested in this too.

The CDC claims[1] influenza caused 61,000 and 34,157 in 2017-18 and 2018-19 respectively, in the USA.

My guess is, without social / travel restrictions COVID-19 could potentially kill a lot more?

I don't envy politicians right now. Proposing politicians act based on how many would have died anyway must be a bit uncomfortable for them.

Mess situation.

1. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Re: Bolsonaro fires health minister, calls to reopen economy

#52

Post by khuey »

2019-nCoV wrote: post #31
JamisonM wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Russia is already setting that example, really no need for two. https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/covid-19-russia-spike-cases-1....

Russia is honestly handling the crisis better than most of the western world. They've done >1.6M tests with a positivity rate of 1.7%.

The number of cases China is reporting in travelers arriving from Russia strongly suggests that Russia is significantly underreporting the scope of its outbreak.

Re: Bolsonaro fires health minister, calls to reopen economy

#53

Post by jasonlingx »

spamizbad wrote: post #24
redis_mlc wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish this b.s. would stop. Corona virus is so contagious and we're so unprepared that it will continue to spread in the US regardless of what we do. Yes, thousands will die regardless of what we do. But there is no way lockdown will continue until people starve. So end this timid lockdown before the total destruction of our economy. Start thinking about public policy instead of "my dear 80 year-old grandpa in the h…

I love this kind of thinking. Earlier in the year it was this was a bad flu, no cause for alarm, no lockdown necessary. This has switched to the virus being too contagious to contain so you might as well do nothing major to address it and let it run its course. Truth is countries that took this seriously and acted swiftly controlled it. They’ll be reopening soon (Singapore already has, right?). I’m guessing the US wi…

> Singapore already has, right?

Nope. Singapore “locked down” 10 days ago shutting down all schools and non-essential services in what the government has been calling a “circuit breaker”, and the locals have been playfully shortening to “CB”, the short-form of the local Hokkien colloquialism referring to a woman’s genitals. Despite this the number of daily new cases keeps rising and today’s numbers are a new high (again).

Re: Bolsonaro fires health minister, calls to reopen economy

#54

Post by aphroz »

rsynnott wrote: post #18
aphroz wrote: post #8

Honest question: Did we see any anormal mortality in any country caused by the covid-19? Countrywide there seems to be less death than usual on the period January-March in Europe. Edit: And here goes my karma. I will need to do some PR to catch up with this :)

... where are you getting that? See https://www.euromomo.eu/ About the only country significantly under normal is Ireland, which has a youngish population and a fairly effective lockdown.

On this chart you can see that this peak is normal for the period, even lower than 2016.

Re: Bolsonaro fires health minister, calls to reopen economy

#55

Post by crispinb »

mchusma wrote: post #14
mikepurvis wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Already happening in Sweden: https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-as-swedens-deat...

I don't understand the Sweden example. Their daily % increase in deaths is well below California. I don't know if there is a difference in counting deaths but Sweden seems to be doing ok relative to other countries. I have heard that they are effectively shut down voluntarily, so government action was not needed but the effect has been the same. Maybe a Swede can weigh in. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavir…

It's in the major league of deaths/million pop (along with the UK, US).

I have to say, as someone usually loathes my generally scientifically-blinkered federal government (Aus), it's relaxing and pleasant to be able to think quite well of them for once. Australia at this stage seems almost like a case study in how to handle a pandemic like this intelligently. Time will tell, of course.

Re: Bolsonaro fires health minister, calls to reopen economy

#56

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

ashtonkem wrote: post #48
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I definitely want to know. But it seems like Swedish public policy is that the current measures are the strictest sustainable ones, so they're going to maintain them until strict measures are no longer needed. It's not clear that early visibility of a spike would change that.

Given that mortality rate is closely tied to the availability of ventilators, it would be catastrophically short sighted to not react to a spike with strong, short term measures.

I guess I'm not sure what to say in response to that. Swedish officials simply don't agree that strong short term measures are required to ensure a sufficient number of ventilators.

Re: Bolsonaro fires health minister, calls to reopen economy

#57

Post by perl4ever »

roel_v wrote: post #19
aphroz wrote: post #8

Honest question: Did we see any anormal mortality in any country caused by the covid-19? Countrywide there seems to be less death than usual on the period January-March in Europe. Edit: And here goes my karma. I will need to do some PR to catch up with this :)

In the Netherlands (for March) mortality for all age cohorts is up, average of about 10%. Lower cohorts mortality is down but not enough to offset the others. Causality is by definition impossible to ascertain at this aggregate level, but no reasonable person would come with another explanation.

As others say or imply, you'd want to get data for a seasonal curve and then use it to adjust.

Re: Bolsonaro fires health minister, calls to reopen economy

#59

Post by rodolphoarruda »

save_ferris wrote: post #35
redis_mlc wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish this b.s. would stop. Corona virus is so contagious and we're so unprepared that it will continue to spread in the US regardless of what we do. Yes, thousands will die regardless of what we do. But there is no way lockdown will continue until people starve. So end this timid lockdown before the total destruction of our economy. Start thinking about public policy instead of "my dear 80 year-old grandpa in the h…

There’s absolutely no guarantee that the economy will make a quick recovery if the lockdowns are lifted. If the death toll starts to spike, people are going to stay home anyway, and businesses will be bleeding cash hoping for a recovery that isn’t coming quickly enough.

At this moment, full recovery is expected to happen no sooner than December 2022. Small business already bled out. If governors extend the lockout for another month, it will make it pointless to go back to work, as there will be no work to go back to. People will stay home until something else happens.

Re: Bolsonaro fires health minister, calls to reopen economy

#60

Post by icelancer »

mikepurvis wrote: post #5
x3n0ph3n3 wrote: post #2

I know we're talking about people's lives, but maybe the world needs to see a country get it devastatingly wrong.

Already happening in Sweden: https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-as-swedens-deat...

Far too early to say this is "devastatingly wrong." The number under the curve matters more than random spikes (that don't oversaturate the health system, BTW).
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