Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#51

Post by boringg » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 1:13 PM UTC

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #31

Unemployment benefits have been significantly expanded under the Coronavirus aid bill. The benefit amounts will sound small if you're living in an expensive city like SF or Seattle, but $600/week from the federal government and a similar amount from state unemployment insurance means that unemployment benefits can pay up to an equivalent of $50-60K/year right now. That goes a long way in most parts of the country, es…

Agreed though I think you hit the nail on the head...how much demand will there be after the pandemic passes(?). We were at the apex of a bull market, now we're heading towards a deep depression. A lot of those jobs won't exist sadly. This goes for current markets impacted but the ripple effects are pretty large.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#52

Post by cm2187 » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 1:13 PM UTC

stupandaus wrote: post #2

Building on my analysis from last week: 1. This week's 6.6M new jobless claims represents ~4% of the estimated ~160-165M US Workforce. 2. This is incremental to the 3.3M new jobless claims filed week ending 3/21, totaling ~10M total jobless claims in the past 2 weeks. 3. The US unemployment rate was ~3.5% as of EOM February [1], so cumulatively that means we've hit ~10% unemployment as of EOW 3/28 (~10M incremental j…

And also there are still a few states that aren't in lockdown yet.

And meanwhile markets are up!

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#53

Post by boringg » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 1:14 PM UTC

bearjaws wrote: post #9

My job has been inundated with applications from people who are not even in tech in any way (think like barbers & home depot workers). I see now why so many companies use automation to filter out resumes.

And zip recruiter just laid off a bunch of employees...

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#54

Post by bearjaws » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 1:14 PM UTC

dakna wrote: post #43

bearjaws wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To Software Engineer, lvl 3 support, Data Scientist, etc. Roles that they would almost certainly fail in without previous experience.

One of the requirements for unemployment benefits is that you are actually looking for work and can proof a certain number of applications per week. It makes sense to just randomly apply as long as the applications count towards the minimum number needed to stay eligible.

I am aware of this, but that doesn't mean people should waste others time, and if it gets bad enough I am going to put automation in front of it.

Everyone loses in these scenarios.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#55

Post by boringg » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 1:14 PM UTC

swalsh wrote: post #35

I've seen a lot of small businesses do the math, and realize that with the additional $600 provided by the stimulus bill, it actually works out better for some lower paid workers to lay them off (and presumably rehire later). I wonder if this might explain higher than expected numbers.

Maybe, but demand just evaporated and might not return so why put the risk on their balance sheet if the fed govt will take it on in the meantime.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#56

Post by vekker » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 1:14 PM UTC

stupandaus wrote: post #2

Building on my analysis from last week: 1. This week's 6.6M new jobless claims represents ~4% of the estimated ~160-165M US Workforce. 2. This is incremental to the 3.3M new jobless claims filed week ending 3/21, totaling ~10M total jobless claims in the past 2 weeks. 3. The US unemployment rate was ~3.5% as of EOM February [1], so cumulatively that means we've hit ~10% unemployment as of EOW 3/28 (~10M incremental j…

That's not too bad... here in Belgium we currently have half of the working population on unemployment benefits.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#57

Post by paganel » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 1:14 PM UTC

stupandaus wrote: post #2

Building on my analysis from last week: 1. This week's 6.6M new jobless claims represents ~4% of the estimated ~160-165M US Workforce. 2. This is incremental to the 3.3M new jobless claims filed week ending 3/21, totaling ~10M total jobless claims in the past 2 weeks. 3. The US unemployment rate was ~3.5% as of EOM February [1], so cumulatively that means we've hit ~10% unemployment as of EOW 3/28 (~10M incremental j…

Afaik Norway was one of the first countries that made similar numbers public, as about a week ago they had announced that unemployment had risen from app. 2% to 10.4%. The article is here [1]. My ballpark estimate is GDP going down by 20-30% for the next two quarters at least.

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-24/norway-jo...

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#58

Post by gph » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 1:15 PM UTC

onepointsixC wrote: post #24

bearjaws wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And they want us to believe that it will be ok because of a $1200 check and state unemployment benefits....

Wasn't unemployment boosted by $600 a week plus state unemployment? Or is my linked NYT article wrong[1]? Because even if it were $600 a week that's the equivalent of $15 an hour. For NY it appears the max state unemployment benefit of $504 per week, for a total max possible of $27.6 an hour, assuming a 40 hour workweek. That's quite substantial, no? Or maybe I'm wrong, and you could enlighten me. [1]: https://www.ny…

No you're right. A lot of people are going to make more on unemployment than they would employed. I'm a junior software engineer and I wouldn't be making that much less on unemployment than I do right now.

No one that wasn't already starving should be starving at this point. Except perhaps gig workers.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#59

Post by mehrdadn » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 1:15 PM UTC

airstrike wrote: post #12

stupandaus wrote: post #2

Building on my analysis from last week: 1. This week's 6.6M new jobless claims represents ~4% of the estimated ~160-165M US Workforce. 2. This is incremental to the 3.3M new jobless claims filed week ending 3/21, totaling ~10M total jobless claims in the past 2 weeks. 3. The US unemployment rate was ~3.5% as of EOM February [1], so cumulatively that means we've hit ~10% unemployment as of EOW 3/28 (~10M incremental j…

I'm also hearing this morning that we've hit the 10% mark. I also heard the same economist say "The economy is collapsing, and it's a global collapse". I don't even need coffee to be alert the rest of the day...

Would you have a link to more reading from that economist about this?

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#60

Post by cm2187 » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 1:15 PM UTC

adrianN wrote: post #30

buzzkillington wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And all this for a virus that kills around 1% of the people who get it, and the majority of them are retired. Future generations will look at us and wonder how we were this stupid.

It kills 1% if ICU care is available. It kills a lot more if the healthcare system is overwhelmed. Look at Spain or Italy. Case fatality rate is around 10%. Letting it run its course it needs to infect 60-70% of the population before herd immunity kicks in. 1% of 60% of the population of the US is 2 million people. World-wide you're looking at 45 million people for a very optimistic scenario. The numbers could easily…

The case fatality rate is meaningless when testing isn't done extensively.