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Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate Is Lower Than in Other Countries

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Re: Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate Is Lower Than in Other Countries

#51

Post by Mirioron »

Retric wrote: post #16
Mirioron wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the long-term it might also be important to look at the economy at least a few years down the line. It might be that some countries will find it very difficult to recover from the crisis because the lockdown hurt the economy too much. That has a cost in lives too.

Economies are surprisingly resilient. It’s systemic causes not temporary disruptions that cause long term issues. Just look at say Japan after the tsunami which not only killed people but also destroyed a lot of critical infrastructure.

My fear is that entire sectors of the economy are all shut down at the same time. Many of those businesses will never open their doors again. A lot of institutional knowledge and expertise will be lost.

Re: Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate Is Lower Than in Other Countries

#52

Post by fiblye »

AlexCoventry wrote: post #23
antidaily wrote: post #17

Less fat people.

FWIW, a quick Google tells me that the obesity rate in Germany is higher than it is in the US. I didn't down-vote you, though. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obesity_in_the_United_States https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obesity_in_Germany I suppose it's possible that the WHO and the CDC use different BMI thresholds, though.

Germans may have a higher rate of obesity, but obese Americans seem to be more chunky than obese Germans. [1]

The number of times I've seen someone who's clearly 400+ pounds outside of America has been maybe 4, 5 times? In the US, I'll see at least one or two people around that weight daily.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_body_weight

Re: Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate Is Lower Than in Other Countries

#53

Post by guscost »

asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #37
malandrew wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to UNICEF, 22,000 children die per day due to poverty. That's over 8 million per year. And that's just children while poverty has been the lowest it has ever been. What do you think is going to happen in developing countries in the next few years? Absolute mortality will likely be around 1% or less once you take into account all those that are asymptomatic and much of this 1% would die in the next decade du…

It seems like you are assuming a much larger asymptomatic rate than what has been published. Because population fatality rate without healthcare would probably be in the 3-7% range, and true asymptomatic cases are only around 20% (at least based on Diamond Princess data). There are around 1.2 billion people in Africa, yielding a death toll on that continent around 36M souls at the low end. Four years of childhood pov…

> would

Let’s argue about hypotheticals in a few months when we have more perspective. Both of your lines of reasoning are filament-thin and stitched together using way too many assumptions right now.

Re: Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate Is Lower Than in Other Countries

#54

Post by tempestn »

sgc wrote: post #41
Exmoor wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Suicides is certainly the most obvious and explicit way to measure loss of life from the 2008 recession, but it's certainly not the whole story. Overdose deaths (70,000+ in 2018 in the US), and other addiction-related deaths are probably significantly exasperated by economic crisis. I'm not arguing that the deaths from the virus won't outnumber deaths related to the quarantine, but they will be significant. They will…

Most Americans have never had a month off work in their lives. It will probably help mental health for for them at least.

I don't agree with the initial premise that suppression measures would potentially cost anywhere near as many lives as they would save. That said, I don't think it's reasonable to compare being off work due to a pandemic lockdown or similar circumstances to a month-long vacation. This will cause significant hardship and stress for many people. It's just that without measures to control the virus, you would still have those effects; they would just come due to fear after a bunch of people die, rather than intentional efforts.

Re: Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate Is Lower Than in Other Countries

#55

Post by omazurov »

The article could have mentioned this as well:

German researchers want to send out hundreds of thousands of coronavirus-antibody tests over the coming weeks, Der Spiegel reported.

People who test positive for the antibodies could be given an "immunity certificate" that would allow them to leave their coronavirus lockdown early.

Other countries, including the United Kingdom, are planning mass testing to ease lockdowns.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-germany-covid-19...

Re: Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate Is Lower Than in Other Countries

#56

Post by s9w »

splintercell wrote: post #50
_trampeltier wrote: post #38

I know from italy for ex. if you are tested positive on Corona, no matter how you die (a tank drove over you twice) you will end up in the "death with Corona" spreadsheet. I don't know about other countrys does this handle. Also normaly, if very old people get sick (like my grandma died) they don't go to the emergency hospital. They might go to a hospital, but usually they don't try to save lives at all costs.

How many Corona positive people are dying of non-Coronavirus related issues? Is that number really that much to impact the total figures?

The age distribution is quite a signal that this is plausible. Then we have the Italian study that said only 1% had no other comorbidity. And then you have a few cases with enough details to go looking, usually the first death in a city/region or notable cases. As a random example this: https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/first-l...

Re: Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate Is Lower Than in Other Countries

#57

Post by Zenst »

Exmoor wrote: post #48
Zenst wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will also be suicides related to this event as well, one example https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/german-mi...

Also, likely homicides: https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/tenant-suspected-property-o...

Yes, the impact thru cause and effect is always bigger and will play out in many ways and forms for a while, even once things settle down on the surface, that impact will ripple on for some time.

Re: Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate Is Lower Than in Other Countries

#58

Post by s9w »

sgc wrote: post #49
s9w wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is that possible if every death is counted as corona death? Besides a missing test of course.

There are plenty of missing tests. Testing is limited almost everywhere. Due to the testing that is in place I don't expect the same ratio, but also, not all countries count all tested deaths as corona deaths, only a few do as far as I understand.

Fair enough. From what I make of this all we do not have strong enough data to really say this is as bad as we make it. We'll see in a month or two I guess when we can conclusively look at the total mortality.

Re: Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate Is Lower Than in Other Countries

#59

Post by Mirioron »

asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #10
Mirioron wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the long-term it might also be important to look at the economy at least a few years down the line. It might be that some countries will find it very difficult to recover from the crisis because the lockdown hurt the economy too much. That has a cost in lives too.

> That has a cost in lives too. Four times as many people have already died from COVID-19 as are ever supposed to have died from great recession excess suicides, and we are just getting started with COVID-19. And the effect of recessions on overall mortality is much less clear (fewer die in commuting car accidents during recessions, for example). There's just no plausible way that a recession following this pandemic…

I'm saying that you need to look at both points of data. Imagine you have two countries with 10 million people each. Country A has 50,000 deaths and country B has 55,000 deaths due to the virus. Just looking at this measure, the conclusion is that country A dealt with the crisis better. However, it could be that the measures taken in country A caused more problems for the economy, ultimately leading to the deaths of 10,000 people, while country B's economy recovered swiftly with almost no deaths resulting from it.

In this example country B ultimately had the better outcome, despite having more deaths directly due to the virus.

Re: Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate Is Lower Than in Other Countries

#60

Post by Melting_Harps »

disabled wrote: post #8
asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #5

I think in the end the number I'll judge countries by is how low they held the death rate per population. A better number would be a population death rate weighted by demographics, but I don't think that'll be easy to construct. Increasing the denominator by testing lots and lots of people is important only if testing lots and lots of people helps you prevent more people from dying. Germany is doing pretty well on th…

Croatia also does well. Croatia has both land and maritime borders (also ferries running back and forth) with Italy. Croatia is ranked number one by Oxford for government responses to the epidemic: https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/oxford-c... Note: HRV is Hrvatska which means Croatia in Croatian. It is the three letter ISO country code. The Croatian government website on coronavirus is: https://kor…

> Croatia also does well. Croatia has both land and maritime borders (also ferries running back and forth) with Italy.

I have a friend that lives in Zagreb, and after the earthquake that damaged the town she said an alarming amount of People were outdoors, and were unprotected as they were worried about aftershocks and tremors and just left their homes.

So she went to the countryside with her family, she said she was super lucky because right after she left they closed down all public transportation and issued a mandated lockdown.

Croatia is a really small country with a small population so its far more manageable to contain then the US or China, it also has a high elderly population who are most vulnerable: I spent a lot of time there, and in the South its common to be in a town where the average age is 70+ with them filling as the primary child care takers as the parents are in major cities working or often in other parts of the EU.

So its interesting how the containment measures play out as it has really dire consequences.

Economically speaking, they're screwed if this goes on: its mainly a tourism based economy with little else, they're active like 7 months out of the year in order to survive the other 5 as it comes to a stall.

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