“I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing” • Hacker News Board

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#51

Post by crispinb » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 8:49 AM UTC

black_puppydog wrote: post #15

I don't agree with the conclusion. We can scale down our economies and still maintain production of essentials by ` `drumroll` ` scaling back shit that nobody needs. Starting with an overblown healthcare admin system in the US, IMHO, but also including less inflammatory non-essential things like yet another range of plastic toys and luxury perfumes and and and. Essentially in this scenario, we should take this as an…

There are so many overloaded reasons to scale back the disastrous global 'economy' (not least of which is that we either do it at a time of our choosing, or ecosystem collapses will eventually do it for us), that the pandemic is almost redundant as motivation. So I'm sympathetic to your notion.

On the other hand, I suspect heavily propagandised blinkers are even harder to shift during a crisis than in more stable times. Fearful people are driven to protect what they have, and are apt to react violently to do so. The "normal" global economy is a catastrophe, but we'll have to return to it (if such is possible) for some time at least.

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#52

Post by mxcrossb » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 8:50 AM UTC

londons_explore wrote: post #27

jonrimmer wrote: post #12

In this event, the solution will be the creation of a permanent, South Korea and China inspired infrastructure for testing, tracking and constraining infectious citizens by all developed countries. Regardless of the privacy and civil liberty concerns, I think that's where we'll eventually end up, and to your children it will one day seem crazy that a person with an infectious illness was once able to freely walk the…

Imagine a future where you do a swab test every morning while brushing your teeth. If you had any of thousands of infectious diseases, you're required to stay home. The test would take only 5 minutes, and you get fined if you don't do it, and receive sick pay if you test positive. I imagine that within a few years of rolling this out, common colds might be a thing of the past, and overall worker productivity higher r…

You’d have to have a staggeringly low false positive rate to be able to do this, because you’d basically have no prior, and you’re testing for multiple things.

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#53

Post by redis_mlc » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 8:50 AM UTC

rapsey wrote: post #3

Is covid-19 the biggest world event since WW2?

Well, I would say no, since there were multiple famines since then.

1) Post-WW2, most of the Eastern Hemisphere experienced famine and underemployment for a decade. (Britain had food ration coupons for 9 years afterwards.)

2) The Cold War was pretty scary and greatly impoverished the Eastern Bloc, Cuba, N. Vietnam and N. Korea. China had the Great Famine from 1959 - 1961, killing "tens of millions."

4) Polio was a scourge until vaccines were developed: 2 to 5 percent of children and up to 15 to 30 percent of adults die

5) USA has a serious crack and meth epidemic, and Russia lost a lot of men to vodka poisoning.

We'll see about Covid-19, but the next famine will dwarf it by 10x or 20x in total fatalities.

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#54

Post by tsimionescu » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 8:51 AM UTC

numair wrote: post #20

I am 100% in agreement with the author. It’s refreshing to see someone admit how much they don’t know — one of the most annoying things about our social media era, when combined with this current situation, is that everyone thinks they’re an expert and that their course of action is the One True Way to defeat the virus. Fact of the matter is, we’re flying blind, and governmental action is more about crowd control tha…

You are wrong on almost every count.

Crowd control is a real fix for an epidemic. And while we don't know the details of the infection, we know enough to understand that we can't let it roam free.

Your advice to young people is horrible, and based on nothing. One of the things we don't know is whether there is any lasting damage in recovered patients. We don't know if the virus might mutate. The only safe thing to do is to avoid catching it, whether you are 80 or 20. Note that SARS left permanent damage in some recovered patients. Even without that, the death rate among less than 40 is similar to the flu in the entire population. This is all not to mention that young people have old relatives that may need their help, especially if they are to stay in isolation for extended periods of time.

And while fake news in the media is a problem, it is one of the last things that governments should be spending resources on at this time,especially as there have been no cases of breaking quarantine or isolation based on fake news.

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#55

Post by tasogare » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 8:51 AM UTC

Majestic121 wrote: post #32

black_puppydog wrote: post #15

I don't agree with the conclusion. We can scale down our economies and still maintain production of essentials by ` `drumroll` ` scaling back shit that nobody needs. Starting with an overblown healthcare admin system in the US, IMHO, but also including less inflammatory non-essential things like yet another range of plastic toys and luxury perfumes and and and. Essentially in this scenario, we should take this as an…

Anti-consumerism, anti-militarism and focusing on social security is not as rebel and edgy as you seem to think it is. If you get downvoted, it's probably more due to the childish tone of your comment rather than for your opinions

OP doesn't advocate anti-militarism, it's advocate to keep army at home. This is two very different things. A country can keep a top-notch army while not invading another country every decade. Japan is the best example of that, with its use of military largely restricted by the constitution.

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#56

Post by viraptor » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 8:52 AM UTC

DoreenMichele wrote: post #39

Some solutions that already exist, are already in use and could be firmed up: 1. Working from home. 2. Ordering online and getting takeout. 3. Using self checkout. 4. Collaboration and socialization via phone and internet. You can't get sick if you aren't exposed. People don't get sick due to some random number generator. You have to have a vector. We already know a great many ways to disrupt the spread. The antidote…

> Ordering online

Annoyingly, this got disrupted in my area. I was hoping to do all ordering online instead of cherry picking some of the things like before. Unfortunately the shop is overrun by customers so all staff are busy. On top of that, because of many items are out of stock, online orders have been disabled. I'm really disappointed in those decisions - not only we have more people waiting in lines in the same area, you're not allowed to order even the fresh produce which is not missing. It changed a 5min pickup into 30min shopping + 15min checkout wait.

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#57

Post by kortilla » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 8:53 AM UTC

Flagged because there is nothing in the article but a tweet author admitting he/she doesn’t know much and is guessing without sources.

> and have spent five years in a world class 'pandemic response modelling' unit

A pretty damming thing for the field of “pandemic response modeling”, but not really worth worrying about on its own.

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#58

Post by QuesnayJr » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 8:54 AM UTC

David Graeber is a stupid person, and the thesis of that book is stupid. There are boring jobs, and there are jobs that wouldn't exist in utopia, but he has no idea why jobs exist or what function they serve. His book is paradoxically feel-good, in that just because we can imagine a world in which nobody has to shovel shit that we can eliminate all shit-shoveling jobs today.

Shit, I actually worked at the kinds of jobs he calls "flunkies" as a temp, and it wasn't a big mystery to me what the jobs were for. When I had a temp job as a receptionist, my job was literally answering the phone. People would call, and I would answer. It did not require a Ph.D. in anthropology to figure out the function of the job, or why someone would pay me to do it.

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#59

Post by _4ziu » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 8:55 AM UTC

black_puppydog wrote: post #15

I don't agree with the conclusion. We can scale down our economies and still maintain production of essentials by ` `drumroll` ` scaling back shit that nobody needs. Starting with an overblown healthcare admin system in the US, IMHO, but also including less inflammatory non-essential things like yet another range of plastic toys and luxury perfumes and and and. Essentially in this scenario, we should take this as an…

I was just reading this book on Bullshit Jobs

https://www.loniya.org/storage/pdf/1535752644.pdf

It's an excellent introduction into the problems of capitalism for those not particularly interested in communism and just trying to get their feet wet.

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#60

Post by kijin » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 8:55 AM UTC

jonrimmer wrote: post #36

ekianjo wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> tracking and constraining infectious citizens by all developed countries. That would be ridiculous if you get to millions of people infected, because that would effectively destroy all economic activity. Even during the 1918-1919 epidemic with high mortality rates people did not stop going to work. Our strategy to isolate ourselves is fine if it's short term but it can't continue more than a few months.

Tracking and testing doesn't destroy economic activity. Complete lock-downs, as we're seeing in China, Italy, Spain and soon elsewhere do. But it does let you get a grip on the situation when you have millions infected. However you're right that you can't maintain that long term, so what's the off-ramp? South Korea has proved you can do mass testing and tracking which, combined with voluntary and state-enforced contr…

South Korea has also shown that restrictions on movement don't need to be particularly draconian. The subway in Seoul is still packed with people every day, but I haven't heard of any mass infection related to the subway. Everyone cleans their hands and wears face masks, so it's okay to be out and about. Oh, and there's a clean bathroom in every subway station.