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Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

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Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#51

Post by nodamage »

haunter wrote: post #18
lhl wrote: post #14

I've been tracking the coronavirus news for the past few weeks and have found https://www.reddit.com/r/covid19 to be good for tracking the latest scientific/medical publications, and https://www.reddit.com/r/coronavirus for general news. For transmission rates, this team is updating their modeling results often: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/current-patterns-tran... On twitter, @datagraver is publishing some…

Both of those subs are incredibly tinfoily and panicky. Honestly reddit is the worst. And BI is right that they are doing the same as always, just consiparcy things https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-reddit-social-pl... Also you might as well rename /r/Coronavirus/ to /r/politics2 aka fucktrump. It's the same thing over and over again

This Business Insider article seems really pointless and vapid to me. Their criticism of reddit is they don't link to official CDC or WHO pages at the top of their search results? You might as well level the same accusation at Hacker News or any other internet forum. And the fact that Facebook and Twitter has those links does nothing to stop them from being full of misinformation themselves.

I looked through /r/covid19/ and it mostly seems to be an aggregator of research papers. Don't really see much tinfoily or panicky stuff there.

I also have no idea why posting this chart would be considered "making bold and fearmongering claims": https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/euokq5/oc_...

Besides, I'm not sure why Business Insider thinks linking to the CDC is some sort of be all end all solution to providing coronavirus information. They've actually been incredibly slow to provide up to date information (not to mention testing).

This article comes across as Business Insider taking a petty swipe at reddit to generate clicks and trying to stir up drama where none exists.

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#52

Post by gwright »

hurrdurr2 wrote: post #19
maxerickson wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? We're a bunch of paranoid lunatics, primed to avoid each other.

Just a small sampling but most of my neighbors are retired and they think it's a MSM scare tactic to drum up views. Some say it's no worse than the flu and then you have the Trump supporters saying it's all a Democrat hoax. In CA btw.

> Trump supporters saying it's all a Democrat hoax

Hard to know exactly what you are referring to here but it sounds like you are spreading more misinformation. We all need to get better at communicating. I swear that half of public discussion these days is based on fictional situations and not reality.

    1) Democrats accused Trump of mishandling COVID-19.
    2) Trump labeled the *criticism* as another "hoax" about his presidency/competency.
    3) Democrats react to 2) and accuse Trump of labeling COVID-19 a "hoax".
    4) Bipartisan collection of journalist pointed out that 3) is bogus and 2) is what was said.
    5) hurrdurr2's comment appears to be a variation of 3) relative to 2).
    6) this comment is an attempt to point out this history and correct the record similar to 4)
I'm taking no stance here on 1) as it really depends what specific criticism is being evaluated. Some of it was/is reasonable and some of it was/is ill-founded.

I have no idea what exactly motivated all the bullshit associated with 3) but it was some combination or poor reading comprehension, slopping rumor mongering, or disgusting politicization of a major public health crisis.

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#53

Post by kohtatsu »

humaniania wrote: post #46
lhl wrote: post #14

I've been tracking the coronavirus news for the past few weeks and have found https://www.reddit.com/r/covid19 to be good for tracking the latest scientific/medical publications, and https://www.reddit.com/r/coronavirus for general news. For transmission rates, this team is updating their modeling results often: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/current-patterns-tran... On twitter, @datagraver is publishing some…

Why not get the news right from the primary source? The World Health Organization (part of the United Nations) publishes a daily situation report: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2... Their director also has statements published regularly: https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail

The numbers from China are not reliable; there are only disincentives to proper reporting. The way the WHO has coddled China is not exactly commendable.

Diversity of sources and information is good anyway, barring some caveats. There is more than just raw numbers at play; you need a variety of sources to see impacts on daily life, how people are preparing, etc. I follow CBC (Canada), some fellow humans on twitter, and especially appreciate the stuff this guy puts out; https://twitter.com/balajis

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#54

Post by Florin_Andrei »

melling wrote: post #15

The video says that it's really a logistic curve. Which is also the activation function (sigmoid) in a few machine learning articles that I've been reading. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function Can anyone recommend anything to read to add more clarity? Why does this appear in deep learning too?

> The video says that it's really a logistic curve.

I mean, of course it's not a true, complete exponential, or else it would take over the universe in 2.3 years or something.

All exponentials run out of something eventually. The question is, how soon does that happen.

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#56

Post by Florin_Andrei »

tic_tac wrote: post #39

There are two extreme paths we can take. The first is that we do nothing, the other is that we completely lock down our society like China. While the first option would be unwise, the second would also be unwise. A complete shutdown for a disease as virulent as Covid-19 will just suppress the virus for the duration of the shutdown. Ignoring the extreme difficulty and impracticality of shutting society down for a mome…

> Many (Media, Democrats) are trying to leverage this to their political advantage

lol, found the echo chamber repeater

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#57

Post by nateberkopec »

cklaus wrote: post #35

American Hospital Association "Best Guess Epidemiology" for #codiv19 over next 2 months: 96,000,000 infections 4,800,000 hospitalizations 1,900,000 ICU admissions 480,000 deaths vs flu in 2019: 35,500,000 infections 490,600 hospitalizations 49,000 ICU admissions 34,200 deaths

"The American Hospital Association said the webinar reflects the views of the experts who spoke on it, not its own."

You're quoting the opinion of one person: Dr James Lawler, a professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Centre. That person researches infectious diseases, so, their opinion isn't a complete guess of course, but we should ascribe the numbers to the right source.

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#58

Post by tic_tac »

hombre_fatal wrote: post #49
tic_tac wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed, Reddit is cancer. Reactionary hive mind internet at its worst. One of the biggest problems with Reddit is that Americans go on boards like /r/politics or in this case /r/Coronavirus, see extreme hostility towards America and Trump and assume that this hostility is all coming from Americans themselves, when really a substantial number of Reddit users (and users elsewhere on the Internet) are not American. Not…

Reddit is clearly just self-hating Americans, mostly kids. I guess you assume no American would spend so much time writing anti-Trump comments on r/politics? I think the real issue is that you go to a place like r/politics or r/vancouver or r/bitcoin and think it's some canonical forum with some semblance of fairness but it's really just someone's little world with its own rules and agenda. But you can't simply start…

I think there are a lot of Americans writing anti-Trump comments on Reddit, but I think the numbers are boosted by non Americans doing the same thing. It artificially inflates the number of anti Trump posters.

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#59

Post by kohtatsu »

gwright wrote: post #52
hurrdurr2 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just a small sampling but most of my neighbors are retired and they think it's a MSM scare tactic to drum up views. Some say it's no worse than the flu and then you have the Trump supporters saying it's all a Democrat hoax. In CA btw.

> Trump supporters saying it's all a Democrat hoax Hard to know exactly what you are referring to here but it sounds like you are spreading more misinformation. We all need to get better at communicating. I swear that half of public discussion these days is based on fictional situations and not reality. 1) Democrats accused Trump of mishandling COVID-19. 2) Trump labeled the *criticism* as another "hoax" about his pr…

WRT 1) I think the fact the CDC hasn't had enough testing capability–as well as far too strict requirements surrounding the tests, perhaps because of their inadequate capabilities—is enough of a black mark.

Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]

#60

Post by kohtatsu »

Leary wrote: post #41
cklaus wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has only flatlined because extremely aggressive social distancing. I don't see that in the US occurring.

The US is blessed with low population density, and people don't share meals family style. We don't have to copy everything China does, just do what has proven to work: Fast testing and contact tracing.

Shame they're failing miserably on both of those fronts.

https://twitter.com/drdenagrayson/status/1235703439688175618

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