I think the HN baseball fan crowd is the perfect audience for this paper, entitled "A Mathematical Analysis of Catcher/Pitcher Encryption Schemes."
https://courses.csail.mit.edu/6.857/2018/project/mlancast-sa...
How the internet helped crack the Astros' sign-stealing case
51–60 of 68 posts
Re: How the internet helped crack the Astros' sign-stealing case
#52A few questions:
1) at best this happens at~50% of the games. The Astros won the series in LA that year. Did they find a way to cheat everywhere?
2) what is the end game here? The Astros have won exactly 1 World Series. Hardly a huge disparity.
3) do you think they’re the only team???
4) what rules were broken?
5) is it wrong for a base runner to scream change-up if they are on 2nd base?
Disclaimer: I’m from Houston and of course I want the Astros to win but I don’t think a huge advantage was had here. One could easily get just as outraged by the Yankees having a bottomless bank account to pay their salaries. They Yankees paid 218mm vs 168mm for the Astros. Both teams are on the larger end of the spectrum but I would argue that smaller markets have a huge disadvantage vs the major cities.
I’m disappointed that the Astros lost this year but I don’t feel compelled to find a reason the Nationals beat us this year. At the end of the day our pitchers failed(ahem Verlander) and our batters couldn’t hit the superior pitchers in dc. Ironically the “cheaters” couldn’t cheat their way to a second victory. This seems like another case of Twitter and social media amplifying things that don’t matter.
Re: How the internet helped crack the Astros' sign-stealing case
#53A few questions: 1) at best this happens at~50% of the games. The Astros won the series in LA that year. Did they find a way to cheat everywhere? 2) what is the end game here? The Astros have won exactly 1 World Series. Hardly a huge disparity. 3) do you think they’re the only team??? 4) what rules were broken? 5) is it wrong for a base runner to scream change-up if they are on 2nd base? Disclaimer: I’m from Houston…
Sign stealing is a part of baseball since forever (i.e. with a runner on second, like you mentioned). That's not the problem with what Houston did. They used a camera in the outfield to steal the signs, which is against the rules. They are the only team where there is evidence this happened and they only did it the year they won the World Series, so yeah, that seems like it made a difference.
As a Pirates fan, I feel you about the salary issue, but everyone is playing by the same rules, so it's not cheating for a team to spend more. It's a pretty orthogonal issue.
Re: How the internet helped crack the Astros' sign-stealing case
#54A few questions: 1) at best this happens at~50% of the games. The Astros won the series in LA that year. Did they find a way to cheat everywhere? 2) what is the end game here? The Astros have won exactly 1 World Series. Hardly a huge disparity. 3) do you think they’re the only team??? 4) what rules were broken? 5) is it wrong for a base runner to scream change-up if they are on 2nd base? Disclaimer: I’m from Houston…
For 5, usually a pitcher and catcher will through multiple signs with a runner on second to scramble the signal, and usually you don’t get enough pitches in to determine which sign is real. With the aid of a camera, the Astros were getting these signals very quickly even though teams were suspicious and using “runner on second” signs against them often.
Re: How the internet helped crack the Astros' sign-stealing case
#55I’m waiting for machine learning to predict play calls for baseball and football. It shouldn’t be too hard if it hasn’t already been done. Based on the offensive coordinator and things like field position, etc it should be easy to make predictions as to what that human would make based on past choices. I wonder if that would be considered cheating though If they only used past performance and not real time signal ste…
Why not just use a cannon to shoot the ball? Ideas like yours take all the fun out of play and ruin it for everyone else. We all know we can build machines to do things better than humans, but so what? It's the uncertainty and imperfection and second guessing that makes a game enjoyable to watch or play in the first place.
> Why not just use a cannon to shoot the ball?
Someone who knows the rules better might answer?
I assume the pitcher has to be registered in the team and as such has to be human.
If you have a pitcher set it off, one assumes it's not regulated equipment. If you have a disability it still has rules around what you can use.
I'd be interested to know though. The Last Boy Scout does kinda ask this question, that's why it's such an amazing opening scene.
Re: How the internet helped crack the Astros' sign-stealing case
#56A few questions: 1) at best this happens at~50% of the games. The Astros won the series in LA that year. Did they find a way to cheat everywhere? 2) what is the end game here? The Astros have won exactly 1 World Series. Hardly a huge disparity. 3) do you think they’re the only team??? 4) what rules were broken? 5) is it wrong for a base runner to scream change-up if they are on 2nd base? Disclaimer: I’m from Houston…
> 1) at best this happens at~50% of the games.
That is an assumption. We don't know all the facts yet. Some are suggesting the camera could have been nothing more than a smartphone and there is a source from within the Astros org that say some of the players wore electronic buzzers under their shoulder to signal the call to them. There is no reason to rule out signals were known on the road as well.
> 2) what is the end game here?
Stop cheaters from winning titles and saving the sport from ruin like cheating did to the sport of boxing.
> 3) do you think they’re the only team?
Probably not but both existing and former Astros speaking up tells us Astros were doing it at an unprecedented level.
> 4) what rules were broken?
First of all sign stealing using technology goes all the way back to 1876. Illegal sign stealing involves mechanical or electronic technology; the rules regarding this have become more stringent over time and continue to evolve. This is also why an 8 second delay was added to the broadcast feed.
> 5) is it wrong for a base runner to scream change-up if they are on 2nd base?
Screaming anything while the opposing pitcher is about to throw I suspect is against the rules but stealing and signalling the signs in other ways is permitted. This is typically done by the base runner using closed fist or open hands.
> I don’t think a huge advantage was had here.
The Astros obviously thought it was enough of an advantage to break the rules to do it. The Astros went from dead last in the AL in strikeout rate in 2016 to 1st in '17 and their strikeout to walk ratio was an extreme outlier compared to the rest of the league.
> Ironically the “cheaters” couldn’t cheat their way to a second victory.
Ironic how? Teams were onto them by then. Once you know your opponent is stealing your signs you can use that against them.
Re: How the internet helped crack the Astros' sign-stealing case
#57Earlier quoted context omitted.
>The feigned shock at steroids. Barry Bonds still isn't in the Hall of Fame. Neither is Roger Clemons. The institution seems to be reacting appropriately in my book. >The shakedowns of cities... Okay, you got me there I guess. Which stadium are you thinking of though? My understanding of the Braves stadium deal(most recent stadium deal that comes to mind) is that the team is required to pay off the county's bonds rai…
The MLB isn't in charge of who gets into the Baseball Hall of Fame.
I’m not sure what you mean. Veteran players are basically the ones who decide. The system works essentially as a check on the institution of Baseball itself. If you mean to say that owners and administrators don’t have much say then, yeah, I guess you’re right. But I wouldn’t change the system as it exists today.
Re: How the internet helped crack the Astros' sign-stealing case
#58I think the HN baseball fan crowd is the perfect audience for this paper, entitled "A Mathematical Analysis of Catcher/Pitcher Encryption Schemes." https://courses.csail.mit.edu/6.857/2018/project/mlancast-sa...
Thanks, sharing this with my fantasy league.
Re: How the internet helped crack the Astros' sign-stealing case
#59Earlier quoted context omitted.
The MLB isn't in charge of who gets into the Baseball Hall of Fame.
I’m not sure what you mean. Veteran players are basically the ones who decide. The system works essentially as a check on the institution of Baseball itself. If you mean to say that owners and administrators don’t have much say then, yeah, I guess you’re right. But I wouldn’t change the system as it exists today.
Basically I mean that, yeah, and it's the writers who do the voting -- Bonds and Clemens are on the ballot.
Re: How the internet helped crack the Astros' sign-stealing case
#60A few questions: 1) at best this happens at~50% of the games. The Astros won the series in LA that year. Did they find a way to cheat everywhere? 2) what is the end game here? The Astros have won exactly 1 World Series. Hardly a huge disparity. 3) do you think they’re the only team??? 4) what rules were broken? 5) is it wrong for a base runner to scream change-up if they are on 2nd base? Disclaimer: I’m from Houston…
> ... I don't think a huge advantage was had here.
I have too hard disagree on this. Knowing the pitch is a huge advantage in baseball.