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Manufacturers want to quit China for Vietnam, but find it impossible

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Re: Manufacturers want to quit China for Vietnam, but find it impossible

#51

Post by Alupis »

BurningFrog wrote: post #34
LeanderK wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Vietnamese government is actually pretty good in terms of freedoms. Wait, what? They recently kidnapped an ex-party member in germany. It was 2017 or so. I can't believe that a country which honors you freedom would do something like this.

The US assassinates its own citizens without trial occasionally. Don't judge by the anomalies, judge by the everyday life for regular people.

It's a little bit different when the person had taken up arms against the nation, no?

Should they get a court hearing? Probably. Is that practical, in some cases, if the person could be apprehended. Otherwise it would just be a pony show with a predetermined outcome, making no difference.

Re: Manufacturers want to quit China for Vietnam, but find it impossible

#52

Post by dirtyid »

megaremote wrote: post #47
dirtyid wrote: post #21

It took China almost 30 years to cultivate economic development zones into the logistics chain to build the first iPhone. That kind of development can't be replicated in a few years, is likely out of reach for smaller nations (read anyone except India) or viable in a geographically distributed fashion. The problem isn't just moving factories but have a geographically centralized logistics chain where thousands of com…

> That kind of development can't be replicated in a few years, is likely out of reach for smaller nations (read anyone except India) or viable in a geographically distributed fashion. Vietnam started a long time ago. And it doesn't have to replace China, just part of the manufacturing process.

This article is about how replacing part of the process is not enough (Edit: for global companies with complex supply chain demands) - the whole is greater than sum of its parts. It might make shortterm sense under the tariffs restrictions which will likely extend into Trumps potential second term, but there is still reliance on Chinese manufacturing logistics, hence China+1. Some of the +1 are economically viable regardless of tariffs due to raising Chinese labour costs, some are ostensibly fit only for short term tariff-engineering.

Re: Manufacturers want to quit China for Vietnam, but find it impossible

#53

Post by mschuster91 »

dmix wrote: post #39
bduerst wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which would be the case if the tariffs were China-only, but the current presidential administration is enacting tariffs on many other countries, like Mexico, Brazil, and S Korea. Also, the upcoming Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) meeting in November could be used by China to unify most of APAC against the U.S. The U.S. TPP was a blocking move to prevent the RCEP, which in it's current form covers h…

I've never understood how Asian regional free trade agreements and China providing loans to developing countries is really a threat to the west. Why exactly should the World Bank and the US/Europe be the only top players in the game again? Has all the strings attached to that help really made the world a better place? As far as I'm concerned extreme poverty or simply poverty is enough of a goal to target. Attempting…

> Why exactly should the World Bank and the US/Europe be the only top players in the game again?

Because China exploits their loans to have leverage over the countries they deal with - there won't be any criticism of the Muslim Gulags or the oppression in Hong Kong from any country that has loans to China. In contrast, European loans do not come with such strings.

The current Chinese government is a threat to the Western model of democracy and human rights, nothing less. But because of the world's dependency on China as a manufacturing shop, no one dares to do anything about them.

Re: Manufacturers want to quit China for Vietnam, but find it impossible

#54

Post by ksec »

Steve44 wrote: post #16
whatshisface wrote: post #2

This tariff situation is quickly becoming an amazing opportunity for developing countries. The labor shortages being talked about can only be resolved through higher wages, which means that the people at the bottom will get a cut of the new money. In the end the world will be a lot richer and the money will be in the hands of relatively livable countries like Vietnam. (The Vietnamese government is actually pretty goo…

I'm currently in the food packaging industry and over the past few years we have been seeing manufacturing move from China to Vietnam and India. Likewise in Europe it’s moving from Poland out to Romania, Greece, and also Turkey. These decisions are largely based on manufacturing costs.

Working in Food industry as well, do you have any web site that specialise in Food Packaging news?

Re: Manufacturers want to quit China for Vietnam, but find it impossible

#55

Post by dmix »

mschuster91 wrote: post #53
dmix wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've never understood how Asian regional free trade agreements and China providing loans to developing countries is really a threat to the west. Why exactly should the World Bank and the US/Europe be the only top players in the game again? Has all the strings attached to that help really made the world a better place? As far as I'm concerned extreme poverty or simply poverty is enough of a goal to target. Attempting…

> Why exactly should the World Bank and the US/Europe be the only top players in the game again? Because China exploits their loans to have leverage over the countries they deal with - there won't be any criticism of the Muslim Gulags or the oppression in Hong Kong from any country that has loans to China. In contrast, European loans do not come with such strings. The current Chinese government is a threat to the Wes…

> Because China exploits their loans to have leverage over the countries they deal with - there won't be any criticism of the Muslim Gulags or the oppression in Hong Kong from any country that has loans to China.

What developing country getting a loan from China was ever going to change Chinas domestic policy otherwise? If all of the West who does billions in trade can hardly make a dent I doubt its worth reducing trade and capital flow to African, latin America, and South Asian countries as a consequence.

Re: Manufacturers want to quit China for Vietnam, but find it impossible

#56

Post by ksec »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #12
jbob2000 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that they hate each other lends even more credence to my theory - it’s that much easier to put tariffs on them. 25% of their imports and 14% of their exports are with China [1], China could definitely hurt Vietnam if they become too close with the US. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Vietnam

China would rather not play with fire here, the Vietnamese night invite the USA to establish a naval base or something if pushed too far, especially considering the current South China Sea contests. (Ironically a reversal of USA support for China during the sino Vietnam war)

I wonder what are the possibilities of that happening? It is sort of the indicator of how much Vietnamese hate China, by settling with US.

Re: Manufacturers want to quit China for Vietnam, but find it impossible

#57

Post by runn1ng »

trickstra wrote: post #46
runn1ng wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The freedom here is... weird. There is much more freedom of speech than in China, or compared to other SEA countries (maybe except for Thailand, but that has a military coup every 2 years in average). There is no censorship of foreign media, internet is basically free. You can say whatever you want and nobody cares, people complain about party and officials on Facebook constantly. On the other hand, they keep arresti…

Correction - some websites are blocked - like bbc.co.uk, but I encountered others. But it's easy to circumvent. The freedom in Vietnam is largely based on the fact that the government doesn't have the means to censor and catch all the small fish. So unless you go on a big public protest, you can basically do whatever you want. Officially, the freedoms are very much limited and yes, internet censorship is on the rise.

BBC seems blocked only on some providers. I can connect to bbc.co.uk now, but bbc.com is DNS blocked.

Re: Manufacturers want to quit China for Vietnam, but find it impossible

#58

Post by mr_toad »

whatshisface wrote: post #2

This tariff situation is quickly becoming an amazing opportunity for developing countries. The labor shortages being talked about can only be resolved through higher wages, which means that the people at the bottom will get a cut of the new money. In the end the world will be a lot richer and the money will be in the hands of relatively livable countries like Vietnam. (The Vietnamese government is actually pretty goo…

> In the end the world will be a lot richer

Except for US consumers.

Re: Manufacturers want to quit China for Vietnam, but find it impossible

#59

Post by fiblye »

latchkey wrote: post #28

I'm from the bay area and moved to Vietnam 3 years ago. I'm watching all of this happen in realtime. I've recently completed a 8500km motorbike trip around all of Vietnam, southern Cambodia and Northern Laos. In the south of Vietnam, HCMC, there is massive growth. Huge amounts of construction. The city is over populated and growing rapidly. Millions of kids work for $200 a month. In the north of Vietnam, there is man…

I work for a Japanese automation company and we’ve been getting a huge surge in projects in Vietnam. Some things here are definitely exaggerated.

Birth rates in Vietnam are already below the replacement rate and dropping.

Poverty is a colossal problem. People get paid a couple hundred bucks a month at major internationals. Cost of living is massively lower, but downtown apartments for average people (and not mansions for foreigners making average foreign wages) aren’t in a great state. Rather dilapidated, in fact. Streets are sometimes torn up and left wide open while construction is going on, turning on high energy electronics might trigger a localized blackout (had this happen with an AC at a restaurant near Hanoi), and outside urban cores, you’ll see many homes with 4 plain concrete walls and makeshift doors and ceilings. Dirt floors aren’t surprising. Roadside restaurants and cafes are just tents and shops are shoddily built shacks.

That said, Vietnam is full of great people who are hopeful about their future. Progress is evident, but the poverty there is very real and the improvements aren’t equally distributed.

Re: Manufacturers want to quit China for Vietnam, but find it impossible

#60

Post by thereare5lights »

Alupis wrote: post #51
BurningFrog wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US assassinates its own citizens without trial occasionally. Don't judge by the anomalies, judge by the everyday life for regular people.

It's a little bit different when the person had taken up arms against the nation, no? Should they get a court hearing? Probably. Is that practical, in some cases, if the person could be apprehended. Otherwise it would just be a pony show with a predetermined outcome, making no difference.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdulrahman_al-Awlaki

Sometimes, they kill citizens and then effectively say shit happens.

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