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Manufacturers want to quit China for Vietnam, but find it impossible

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Re: Manufacturers want to quit China for Vietnam, but find it impossible

#31

Post by est »

whatshisface wrote: post #2

This tariff situation is quickly becoming an amazing opportunity for developing countries. The labor shortages being talked about can only be resolved through higher wages, which means that the people at the bottom will get a cut of the new money. In the end the world will be a lot richer and the money will be in the hands of relatively livable countries like Vietnam. (The Vietnamese government is actually pretty goo…

> It's also politically preferable for the US to depend on a hundred small countries instead of one big competitor

FTA:

The Chinese model of the past 20 years thrived on suppliers being close to each other, making production quicker, less expensive and more efficient. Now, as operations become more fragmented, they are threatening to raise costs, stretch delivery times and expose companies to multiple tax and labor regimes

Re: Manufacturers want to quit China for Vietnam, but find it impossible

#32

Post by latchkey »

cududa wrote: post #30
latchkey wrote: post #28

I'm from the bay area and moved to Vietnam 3 years ago. I'm watching all of this happen in realtime. I've recently completed a 8500km motorbike trip around all of Vietnam, southern Cambodia and Northern Laos. In the south of Vietnam, HCMC, there is massive growth. Huge amounts of construction. The city is over populated and growing rapidly. Millions of kids work for $200 a month. In the north of Vietnam, there is man…

I haven’t followed China’s expansion into Vietnam as closely as I should’ve. Do you have any articles I can read on the above, or good twitter accounts to follow on the topic?

I really wish there was more news on this matter, but this communist country controls all the news and makes things look happy.

Laos and Cambodia... just append 'china' to those two and google it. Tons of articles.

The rest, you just have to experience first hand to see it directly. It is simply amazing how much (de)(con)struction is going on in these countries.

Re: Manufacturers want to quit China for Vietnam, but find it impossible

#33

Post by latchkey »

weq wrote: post #29
latchkey wrote: post #28

I'm from the bay area and moved to Vietnam 3 years ago. I'm watching all of this happen in realtime. I've recently completed a 8500km motorbike trip around all of Vietnam, southern Cambodia and Northern Laos. In the south of Vietnam, HCMC, there is massive growth. Huge amounts of construction. The city is over populated and growing rapidly. Millions of kids work for $200 a month. In the north of Vietnam, there is man…

Once u have used all all your resources - what else do u do? Enter a new market, under the guise of alturism, give that country cheap credit... and soon enough you have a new colony!

That is exactly what is happening. Even worse is that Cambodia is based on USD. They have their own currency, but it is conveniently 4000:1USD, which means it is easy to get back quarters in change. All the gas stations, markets, shops, etc... all either price things in USD or accept USD.

This gives China a great place to spend their huge reserves.

Re: Manufacturers want to quit China for Vietnam, but find it impossible

#34

Post by BurningFrog »

LeanderK wrote: post #13
whatshisface wrote: post #2

This tariff situation is quickly becoming an amazing opportunity for developing countries. The labor shortages being talked about can only be resolved through higher wages, which means that the people at the bottom will get a cut of the new money. In the end the world will be a lot richer and the money will be in the hands of relatively livable countries like Vietnam. (The Vietnamese government is actually pretty goo…

> The Vietnamese government is actually pretty good in terms of freedoms. Wait, what? They recently kidnapped an ex-party member in germany. It was 2017 or so. I can't believe that a country which honors you freedom would do something like this.

The US assassinates its own citizens without trial occasionally.

Don't judge by the anomalies, judge by the everyday life for regular people.

Re: Manufacturers want to quit China for Vietnam, but find it impossible

#36

Post by contingencies »

Currently opening a nontrivial manufacturing facility in China. I've been flying to Vietnam at least once a month for the last 3 months. There are definitely people moving production there, eg. I know one guy for a German group moving factories from China to south Vietnam. We had a chat, and it turns out we're getting cheaper industrial facility leasing here in Zhuhai than they get outside of Ho Chi Minh City. Additionally, we have immediate access to the world's largest industrial supply chain, are only 1 hour from Hong Kong, Macau, Shenzhen, etc. and ~200 million people. Marginally higher cost of living, but it's not a bad deal. Less crazy motorcycle road deaths and more nature here. IMHO Vietnam's big draw versus China is cross-border transactional banking - that stuff's a hassle here. On balance we'll stay put, thanks.

Re: Manufacturers want to quit China for Vietnam, but find it impossible

#39

Post by dmix »

bduerst wrote: post #20
whatshisface wrote: post #2

This tariff situation is quickly becoming an amazing opportunity for developing countries. The labor shortages being talked about can only be resolved through higher wages, which means that the people at the bottom will get a cut of the new money. In the end the world will be a lot richer and the money will be in the hands of relatively livable countries like Vietnam. (The Vietnamese government is actually pretty goo…

Which would be the case if the tariffs were China-only, but the current presidential administration is enacting tariffs on many other countries, like Mexico, Brazil, and S Korea. Also, the upcoming Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) meeting in November could be used by China to unify most of APAC against the U.S. The U.S. TPP was a blocking move to prevent the RCEP, which in it's current form covers h…

I've never understood how Asian regional free trade agreements and China providing loans to developing countries is really a threat to the west.

Why exactly should the World Bank and the US/Europe be the only top players in the game again?

Has all the strings attached to that help really made the world a better place?

As far as I'm concerned extreme poverty or simply poverty is enough of a goal to target. Attempting to forcefully push country's local politics and governance forward without solving the basic problems of quality of life and all of the luxuries that allow people to focus on less local problems affecting their lives directly, like what they are going to eat next, freeing people up to focus on government and community. That seems like an essential first step.

Otherwise youre just mining the same small group of influential people already in those countries and expecting different outcomes. Not changing leadership or reducing corruption organically through education and the empowerment an influential middle class brings to politics.

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