Japan's working population drops further - and the number of foreigners rise • Hacker News Board

Re: Japan's working population drops further - and the number of foreigners rise

#51

Post by turndown » Sat, Apr 13, 2019, 7:53 PM UTC

Amezarak wrote: post #44

deogeo wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Japan has 126 million people, while in 1910 it had 50 million. Populations are at similar historic, unprecedented heights throughout most of the world, developed and developing. We are nowhere near having to worry about extinction due to not enough people.

Please read the PDF I linked. The whole point is that even massive populations can be subject to permanent declines resulting in extinction under the right social conditions. One might as well say the two thousand rats in the article had nothing to worry about because there were so many of them - but the peak is exactly where the social collapse was irreversible. Again, I agree that seven billion is not a sustainable…

Is this a totally reasonable thing to say, though, comparing us to rats in this situation? Rats have no concept of extinction or death, humans do. To me, that means a lot.

Not to mention, rat society doesn't change much whether it's ten rats or a hundred. Human culture becomes very different as people aggregate together, so whose to say that the very same social conditions triggered by increasing population will not themselves be changed by decreasing population?

Re: Japan's working population drops further - and the number of foreigners rise

#52

Post by x0re4x » Sat, Apr 13, 2019, 7:54 PM UTC

StraightShtr19 wrote: post #7

I wonder what if one of developed countries focused on males? Something like "future is male" and "support your father/husband/son" etc. Additionally remove any child support for single parents etc. Maybe that could work? Basically the opposite of current policies.

You answered your question for yourself: "the opposite of current policies".

Why Civilized Society Hates Men: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sycv9Yqwcak

Re: Japan's working population drops further - and the number of foreigners rise

#53

Post by pentae » Sat, Apr 13, 2019, 7:59 PM UTC

StraightShtr19 wrote: post #7

I wonder what if one of developed countries focused on males? Something like "future is male" and "support your father/husband/son" etc. Additionally remove any child support for single parents etc. Maybe that could work? Basically the opposite of current policies.

I've always wondered if a reasonable cap on child support/alimony would help - such as the median US income. This could possibly make wealthy men more likely to have more children and also potentially help keep families together.

Re: Japan's working population drops further - and the number of foreigners rise

#54

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Apr 13, 2019, 8:02 PM UTC

thrwwy412947 wrote: post #43

krapp wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Current policies are that men and women should be treated equally, and the women have the same rights over their bodily autonomy and sexual relationships that men do. I want to read your comment as implying something other than a view that women having such equality and autonomy is a problem. Can you elaborate on what current policies, specifically, you feel are in error and what "future is male" is supposed to mean…

Current policies where? In the US ( and the west? ), current policies are highly favorable to females and unfavorable to males. In japan, I'm assuming it is more favorable to males than females. So population isn't dependent on which gender is favored since both the west and japan face population decline and low birth rates. I think education and wealth is the factor that is causing decline of birth rates across the…

[deleted]

Re: Japan's working population drops further - and the number of foreigners rise

#55

Post by hrktb » Sat, Apr 13, 2019, 9:04 PM UTC

jpatokal wrote: post #30

seunosewa wrote: post #19

If automation is the future, isn’t a decline in the working population a good thing? The robots can just take over the vacant jobs. What am I missing?

Most vacant jobs in Japan are the kind of thing that's quite difficult to automate: farm worker, health care, construction, sole person running a convenience store, etc. The comparatively easy stuff like repetitive factory work has generally been automated already.

Aren’t these jobs going to be less and less needed as population decline ?

I know there is the wave of elderly people who will be SOL, but to put on my cynical hat, I think the current government has already given up on them, so I see no help on the way for them anyway.

Re: Japan's working population drops further - and the number of foreigners rise

#56

Post by dentemple » Sat, Apr 13, 2019, 9:08 PM UTC

seunosewa wrote: post #19

If automation is the future, isn’t a decline in the working population a good thing? The robots can just take over the vacant jobs. What am I missing?

Robots don't pay taxes, and, therefore, don't help to support the elderly safety net (which is one the biggest problems with a declining population, supporting this system).

One way around this is to increase taxes (either directly or indirectly somehow) on companies that successfully implement automation, but that opens up a whole other can of worms.

Re: Japan's working population drops further - and the number of foreigners rise

#57

Post by claudiawerner » Sat, Apr 13, 2019, 9:09 PM UTC

mertd wrote: post #47

seunosewa wrote: post #19

If automation is the future, isn’t a decline in the working population a good thing? The robots can just take over the vacant jobs. What am I missing?

A nugget of cycling wisdom says when you get fitter, cycling doesn't become any easier, you just go faster. Similarly with automation, we are just ending up with more efficient means of production but not less work overall.

In my opinion that's an unfortunate turn - automation doesn't liberate us, we just become more and more extensions of automated processes. Why were classical economists such as Marx and Kenyes so wrong on this point? I think they underestimated the power of capital's ideology.

Re: Japan's working population drops further - and the number of foreigners rise

#58

Post by hrktb » Sat, Apr 13, 2019, 9:12 PM UTC

matvore wrote: post #18

irq11 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Japan just passed a radical (for Japan) change to their immigration rules, to allow in more foreign workers in a number of low-skill categories. It’s also comparatively easy for skilled workers to get visas. (The bigger problem is making Japanese companies treat these workers as equals...but they’re coming around.) Now, contrast to the current reactionary government of the United States, and their attitude toward imm…

Japan doesn't really need complex or quota-based immigration laws because foreigners are not super happy to live there forever once they've tried it. More so than legal barriers, there are cultural ones. And there are borders in our minds just as much as on maps (e.g. preconceptions that we're stubborn to let go of). The US is different, of course. People like it here once they've arrived. I can't say why, nor do I b…

It should be mentionned that the jobs these low skilled immigrants are called for are extremely shitty (sometimes litteraly, as for elderly people personal care for instance) and desperatly low pay. It’s become a running joke to call it legal slavery.

If I remember well, the visa they get is bound to a specific activity, so for most the only legal way out of that situation will to give up on Japan altogether.

Re: Japan's working population drops further - and the number of foreigners rise

#59

Post by laHiesh1 » Sat, Apr 13, 2019, 9:46 PM UTC

pentae wrote: post #53

StraightShtr19 wrote: post #7

I wonder what if one of developed countries focused on males? Something like "future is male" and "support your father/husband/son" etc. Additionally remove any child support for single parents etc. Maybe that could work? Basically the opposite of current policies.

I've always wondered if a reasonable cap on child support/alimony would help - such as the median US income. This could possibly make wealthy men more likely to have more children and also potentially help keep families together.

A cap on alimony would very likely help especially since it's driving some of the men to suicide when they are forced to pay 90%+ of their income in alimony. I doubt it's helping the problem when some see that and think twice about engaging in a relationship.

Re: Japan's working population drops further - and the number of foreigners rise

#60

Post by mtempleton » Sat, Apr 13, 2019, 10:24 PM UTC

beambot wrote: post #25

theprotocol wrote: post #15

Can we stop pretending birth rate decline couldn't self-stabilize? I don't see populations organically shrinking to 0 as a realistic scenario. I for one am tired of extremely misguided and unjustified attempts at engineering everything on the planet.

How do you propose to sustainably support 7.5 Billion people on this "tiny" planet without engineering?

He said without engineering everything.

The way your comment is written it is technically a straw man fallacy.