Japan's working population drops further - and the number of foreigners rise • Hacker News Board

Re: Japan's working population drops further - and the number of foreigners rise

#41

Post by autokad » Sat, Apr 13, 2019, 7:08 PM UTC

irq11 wrote: post #10

AngryData wrote: post #4

As a bit of a side tract, this is happening to all modernized nations, only Japan is one of the few modern countries that isn't allowing enough legal immigrants to make up for the decline. The US also has a negative native population growth, but because the doom and disaster a negative growth rate would cause upon our current economic models we allow shit tons of legal immigration to maintain growth.

Japan just passed a radical (for Japan) change to their immigration rules, to allow in more foreign workers in a number of low-skill categories. It’s also comparatively easy for skilled workers to get visas. (The bigger problem is making Japanese companies treat these workers as equals...but they’re coming around.) Now, contrast to the current reactionary government of the United States, and their attitude toward imm…

doesn't NYC have more foreign born immigrants (3 m) than all of Japan (2.23 m)?

Re: Japan's working population drops further - and the number of foreigners rise

#42

Post by krapp » Sat, Apr 13, 2019, 7:11 PM UTC

laHiesh1 wrote: post #39

krapp wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Current policies are that men and women should be treated equally, and the women have the same rights over their bodily autonomy and sexual relationships that men do. I want to read your comment as implying something other than a view that women having such equality and autonomy is a problem. Can you elaborate on what current policies, specifically, you feel are in error and what "future is male" is supposed to mean…

Men and women are not always treated equally under the law, it depends greatly where you live. Some examples would be rape laws excluding male victims, compulsory military service, and infant male circumcision.

Fair enough, although I believe the goal is equality, laws can be unjustly applied in either direction. However, I don't see how "focusing on males" or "future is male" solves that problem, as opposed to preferring one inequality over another.

Re: Japan's working population drops further - and the number of foreigners rise

#43

Post by thrwwy412947 » Sat, Apr 13, 2019, 7:18 PM UTC

krapp wrote: post #33

StraightShtr19 wrote: post #7

I wonder what if one of developed countries focused on males? Something like "future is male" and "support your father/husband/son" etc. Additionally remove any child support for single parents etc. Maybe that could work? Basically the opposite of current policies.

Current policies are that men and women should be treated equally, and the women have the same rights over their bodily autonomy and sexual relationships that men do. I want to read your comment as implying something other than a view that women having such equality and autonomy is a problem. Can you elaborate on what current policies, specifically, you feel are in error and what "future is male" is supposed to mean…

Current policies where? In the US ( and the west? ), current policies are highly favorable to females and unfavorable to males. In japan, I'm assuming it is more favorable to males than females.

So population isn't dependent on which gender is favored since both the west and japan face population decline and low birth rates.

I think education and wealth is the factor that is causing decline of birth rates across the developed nations. It's the only common factor between the US, Japan, Korea, Europe, etc.

Re: Japan's working population drops further - and the number of foreigners rise

#44

Post by Amezarak » Sat, Apr 13, 2019, 7:24 PM UTC

deogeo wrote: post #40

Amezarak wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are social conditions in other species that can result in extinction of a population group, despite ample resource availability. That's what Calhoun's rat population sink experiments were about. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1644264/pdf/pro... I don't disagree that the number of human beings on this planet is unsustainable, but I also wonder if there are underlying social pathologies that immigra…

Japan has 126 million people, while in 1910 it had 50 million. Populations are at similar historic, unprecedented heights throughout most of the world, developed and developing. We are nowhere near having to worry about extinction due to not enough people.

Please read the PDF I linked. The whole point is that even massive populations can be subject to permanent declines resulting in extinction under the right social conditions.

One might as well say the two thousand rats in the article had nothing to worry about because there were so many of them - but the peak is exactly where the social collapse was irreversible.

Again, I agree that seven billion is not a sustainable number of humans. In terms of resources and environmental damage, seven billion is a catastrophe. What I’m saying is that population declines may be heralding a different kind of disaster.

Re: Japan's working population drops further - and the number of foreigners rise

#45

Post by odiroot » Sat, Apr 13, 2019, 7:26 PM UTC

veryworried wrote: post #21

I see this as a good thing. We need less people in the world, it will be better for the planet, and civilization will be more sustainable. Better to have a highly automated more empty world than a hot crowded one with too many mouths to feed and not enough food to go around.

Having more people in developed countries wouldn't hurt.

Re: Japan's working population drops further - and the number of foreigners rise

#46

Post by Noos » Sat, Apr 13, 2019, 7:31 PM UTC

seunosewa wrote: post #19

If automation is the future, isn’t a decline in the working population a good thing? The robots can just take over the vacant jobs. What am I missing?

This involves a faith in automation having near-magical powers, with no downsides whatsoever. Automation is expensive, limited to specific tasks that can be broken down into an unchanging list of steps, requires constant maintenance and updating, and is very vulnerable in ways humans are not. We already are very vulnerable as a computerized society to events like typhoons-a society with less people and more reliance on automation could suffer critical effects, since it often increases fragility as a trade off for efficiency.

Re: Japan's working population drops further - and the number of foreigners rise

#47

Post by mertd » Sat, Apr 13, 2019, 7:32 PM UTC

seunosewa wrote: post #19

If automation is the future, isn’t a decline in the working population a good thing? The robots can just take over the vacant jobs. What am I missing?

A nugget of cycling wisdom says when you get fitter, cycling doesn't become any easier, you just go faster.

Similarly with automation, we are just ending up with more efficient means of production but not less work overall.

Re: Japan's working population drops further - and the number of foreigners rise

#48

Post by paulorlando » Sat, Apr 13, 2019, 7:32 PM UTC

This is also an example where the larger story is about emptying out the rural areas while the cities grow. Most of Japan's large cities have increased in population (or are flat) over the past 20 years. So, yes a smaller "working age" population but one that is centered around white-collar rather than agricultural work.

Re: Japan's working population drops further - and the number of foreigners rise

#49

Post by laHiesh1 » Sat, Apr 13, 2019, 7:37 PM UTC

krapp wrote: post #42

laHiesh1 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Men and women are not always treated equally under the law, it depends greatly where you live. Some examples would be rape laws excluding male victims, compulsory military service, and infant male circumcision.

Fair enough, although I believe the goal is equality, laws can be unjustly applied in either direction. However, I don't see how "focusing on males" or "future is male" solves that problem, as opposed to preferring one inequality over another.

I agree, the goal is definitely equality and I hope that one day it's archived but unfortunately I don't think it'll happen too soon when there isn't much focus on legal and non-legal issues that affect men.

Re: Japan's working population drops further - and the number of foreigners rise

#50

Post by IkmoIkmo » Sat, Apr 13, 2019, 7:43 PM UTC

greeneggs wrote: post #13

AngryData wrote: post #4

As a bit of a side tract, this is happening to all modernized nations, only Japan is one of the few modern countries that isn't allowing enough legal immigrants to make up for the decline. The US also has a negative native population growth, but because the doom and disaster a negative growth rate would cause upon our current economic models we allow shit tons of legal immigration to maintain growth.

Can you cite your sources? It is especially important when you are making potentially provocative claims ("doom and disaster", "shit tons of legal immigration"). In (fiscal year) 2017, the US admitted 1.1 million immigrants, 1.2 million in 2016. [1] US population has been increasing at about 2.3 million per year [2]. [1] https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/yearbook/2017/tab... [2] https://www.multpl.com/united…

Two explanations for that.

1) is life expectancy. Suppose the average life expectancy is 40, and every two people have two children at age 20. Population would be stable. However, suppose nothing changes about fertility rates or replacement rates, but the life expectancy grows to say 60. You'll find that the population for some time will grow, merely because inflow (births) don't change, but outflow (deaths) are lower as they are delayed.

As such, population growth can occur despite a below-replacement rate fertility without any immigration.

2) Immigrants tend to be more fertile. Welcoming immigrants and then chalking up the subsequent population growth from their high-birth rate as being an example of the country having sufficiently high birth rates for population growth without immigration is faulty reasoning. Births in the US would've been a lot lower if it admitted no immigrants, particularly hispanic.

Fact is total fertility rates in the US are around 1.7 children per woman now, and are even lower for people who's families have been in the US for multiple generations (non-recent immigrants). US would be declining in population size this century if it wasn't for migration, ceteris paribus.

Similar story all over Europe. Just look at fertility rates of native-born populations and the necessary replacement rate, the former is typically below the latter. [0] Most OECD countries would be shrinking without immigration.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate